Ummmm...flopped a full house!?!?!?!

[Jester999]

Party Poker .5/$1 NL full ring

Opponent in this hand plays a lot of hands preflop (30%) and raises about 1 out of every 5 he plays. He's also very aggressive postflop. He's got $160 and I have him covered. He open min raises UTG to $2. Three call in MP to me, I call with black 99, and the BB also calls. 6 to the flop $12 in the middle.

The flop:
Q Q Q

UTG leads out for $15 and all fold to me. I think and call. The BB folds.

The turn is a low brick like a 3. UTG pushes. Action's on me.

Thoughts?

[kongo_totte]

Easy fold. Maybe he does not have a queen, but he most certainly has you drawing dead. The flop call is marginal IMO, depending on exactly how post-flop aggrssive he is. Would he lead into a field there with AK/AJ?

[kingofswing]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy fold. Maybe he does not have a queen, but he most certainly has you drawing dead. The flop call is marginal IMO, depending on exactly how post-flop aggrssive he is. Would he lead into a field there with AK/AJ?

[/ QUOTE ]

Doesn't minraise in EP often mean a small PP? It could be AA or KK, but why would he play it that way? He knows a Q is going to call and that's the only hand that could beat him because no one else has AA or KK. This looks like a small PP who isn't sure he has the best hand pushing hard to get all the bigger PPs out. I think I call here.

[swolfe]

call, he's got a low/mid-PP...and doesn't expect/want a call.

i might have thought about throwing a raise on the flop, but playing this passive against an aggro player is probably best.

[ahnuld]

Why not raise preflop. With that many callers, yuo need to flop a set, however against a loose raiser, reraise to isolate. Makes the hand easier, and if he had a low pp he woulda check called you down.

He may have the best hand but I'm not really sure. I actually like raising the flop for information. I don't want to play for my whole stack in this type of situation. Plenty of people do miniraises with big pocket pairs. you see it all the time.

[kingofswing]

I don't like raise because if the BB has a hand then I've lost more money. Also, I don't like raise because then if I get reraised by the UTG, now I have a tough decision. I guess if you are committed to putting all your chips in no matter what, then it doesn't matter, but still I don't raise here because BB is still to act.

[Jester999]

The more I think about this the more egregious my error seems.

[ QUOTE ]
Doesn't minraise in EP often mean a small PP?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ding ding. I agree. When someone makes a raise like that that's immediatle the range I start with.

[ QUOTE ]
call, he's got a low/mid-PP...and doesn't expect/want a call.

i might have thought about throwing a raise on the flop, but playing this passive against an aggro player is probably best.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like the call on the flop because of the player (as you said), it still looks scary (or it should), and it keeps me out of too much trouble if the BB comes to life. Once the BB folded in the hand, I felt good until the villain moved in. And Party puts you under the clock pretty fast so I folded. The reason I folded is so bad is embarrassing. I'm running bad and had a good win going. Yuck.

Anyway, it's just a math question. I really believe that his range of hands is any Pocket Pair. I think being the kind of player he is he raises bigger almost all the time with AA-10 10, I think he raises like this most often with 99-66, and I think he limps most often with 55-22. If I run the numbers (and I don't have the stomach) I think it's a clear call.

Thanks for the replies.

[kingofswing]

I feel like in general the minraise in EP is usually the sign of a PP below TT. People make pretty standard raises most of the time with AA-TT. Anyone loose enough to minraise a PP in EP will put a full bet in with JJ or TT. So you can be pretty comfortable unless this guy likes to minraise any PP from AA to 66 in EP, you have the best hand here.

I think flop/turn play cements that fact.

I just saw a guy on Party miniraise out of the BB with aces and two limpers and the SB in the pot already. Crazier things have happened.

And I think that your comment about being up for the session and not wanting to lose it is not so bad. That's probably the way you should always play. Unless you feel pretty comfortable that you're in a good situation, why not just fold. Even if you think you might have a slight edge, plenty of times you won't. If you're iffy about a call, then you're probably not in that great of a spot.

[kingofswing]

You're right. This is a high variance play, but that doesn't make it -EV. From the reads in this post, I think he's ahead, but you never know, I've seen donks minraise/limp with AA or KK plenty of times. Just hope this isn't one of those times...

Yeah, and I think it's not clear that it's a +EV either, which is why I would err on the side of caution and lower variance, which is always my preference. Also, I think he would play 10-10, J-J, and K-K the same way after the flop. If I have J-J in that spot I'm pretty sure it's good, and I don't want someone with A-2o to spike an ace on me. So I don't think it's clear that his all in is a sign of weakness. But in the end, I think the call or fold is basically what your stomach can take.

I think more often then not, your hand is good here. However, it really depends on the hands you've seen this guy in - especially the ones where both you and him were involved in action. If he's bet a lot into you frequently and you've folded to his big bets, then your hand is more likely to be good here because he'll probably be thinking you're going to fold and he might do this with anything. Your thinking and calling on flop probably indicates weakness to him.

However, this logic can be reversed on you. If he's been very aggressive lately, he does have a queen, and he's a smart LAG then he could put you on a mid PP and try to get a doubleup call.

I think a high PP is not very likely here. Most of the time with an aggressive player a small preflop raise means his hand is small. If he's a smart LAG, he won't be pushing this with AA. However, this is largley read dependent. You almost have to have some reads on what this guy will raise to 2xbb with.

Basically, I think most of the time he's on a mid/low PP or face cards <font color="black"> </font> . Therefore, its a +EV play to call against a very aggressive postflop player.

[warlockjd]

Pot raise the flop to see where you are at. Makes the hand easier to play IMO