Turn decision

[sizeup]

PL Hold 'Em @ Commerce, 10-20 blinds, $600 buy-in. I'm in the BB with KsTs. An early-mid position player raises the max to 70. I haven't seen much from him in the 30 min or so he was at the table. Conservative appearance, not involved in any big pots. A top player cold-calls from 2 spots later. Folded to me and I close the action by putting in 50 more. I have about 750 left, the others have me covered.

Flop is J rag rag with 1 spade. I check, raiser checks, top player checks.

Turn is As. I now have nut flush draw and nut gutshot straight draw. I bet the pot, 220. The raiser thinks and then raises the pot. Top player folds. I have about 530 left, there is 660 in the pot before the raise plus his 530 makes it 1190 to 530 or 2.25 to 1 odds. I have 10 nut outs to the 3 queens plus 7 spades that don't pair the board. So if I'm doing the math right I'm a 3.61 to 1 dog to make the nuts. If you tack on the 2 spades that also pair the board, it becomes 2.83 to 1. I don't think that a K is an out, but if I count the 3 kings too it becomes 2.07 to 1. I fold. Good play/bad play? Bad preflop call? All comments appreciated.

[Ignatius]

Given that you had to spend 1/16 of your stack out of position on a hand which is very likely dominated and doesn't have much nut-potential, i think you should have folded preflop.
.
On turn, I'd rather have checked as the preflop and flop action, together with your description of the raiser, virtually scream big slick (or maybe AQ), so the ace is very likely to have hit someone in which case your semi-bluff is doomed to fail. Once you got raised, you have a clear fold:
<pre><font class="small">code:</font><hr>
Hold'em, 2-handed, pot 1720, cost 530, board As-Js-7h-2d
Ks-Ts: 27.27% 3:8 (EV -60.91) 12 wins 0 splits 32 losses
Ah-Kd: 72.73% 8:3 (EV +720.91) 32 wins 0 splits 12 losses
</pre><hr>

[sizeup]

Ignatius,
Thanks for your response. That makes sense to me. One question - would a conservative player holding AK ever fold the turn here with his top pair top kicker, fearing a sandbagged set or an Ax suited pairing the x on the flop and hitting the A on the turn for 2 pair? With 220 in the pot, facing a bet of 220, and the possibility of another 530 going in after. Thanks again.

[Matt Flynn]

sizeup,

KTs has gotten me into a lot of trouble. Good hand to fold preflop to a raise.

On the flop check and fold as you did / would have done.

On the turn, had a blank hit, your bet works very well. With the ace, the chances of you taking it down by betting are slim, making semibluffing much less profitable. Check. With 12 outs to the nuts, you can't go too far wrong by calling in PL with more money behind, so go ahead and call his bet. If you hit, you must bet the river - whatever amount you think he'll pay off.

Had I gotten to your decision point, I would've folded, then gone on tilt. ;-)

Matt

[Ignatius]

In this specific case, almost certainly no (I know that I wouldn't):
.
- There is already $220 in the pot which is about 1/4 of the effective stack.
- The board doesn't look threatening.
- The money is not deep enough to worry about slow-played sets and turned two-pairs.
- Even if he does worry, he cannot allow himself to be bet out of AK as this would make him an easy target in future hands.
- The turn made flush and str8 draws possible, which makes a semi-bluff more likely.
- The absence of flop-action makes a bluff even more likely.
- And finally, he might simply put you on an ace with a worse kicker or another AK
.
All in all, the money is way too short and the board and action way too suspicious to even consider mucking AK for a single bet in this spot.

[Zeno]

The other posters sized up the situation very well, I think. I would have folded preflop. The K,T is too much of a problem hand under the stated conditions, in my opinion.

-Zeno

[sizeup]