Tricky Pot Odds Hand (50+5)

[Degen]

Anybody have a link to a working Converter?


So given that I'm getting ~2.5:1 and I'd be calling these two all-ins for ~1/3rd of my chips? I'd think in all liklihood one should have an overpair to my 7, no?



***** Hand History for Game 2463503390 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $50 Buy-in + $5 Entry Fee Trny:14468459 Level:5 Blinds(75/150) - Tuesday, August 02, 00:09:58 EDT 2005
Table Table 22367 (Real Money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 7
Seat 4: KYPokerman1 ( $1292 )
Seat 7: The_Who70 ( $2185 )
Seat 8: awpeh ( $3090 )
Seat 10: razzinu ( $723 )
Seat 3: TheLage ( $1656 )
Seat 2: DOC4FACE ( $336 )
Seat 9: Tonyflip ( $718 )
Trny:14468459 Level:5
Blinds(75/150)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to TheLage [ 4s 7d ]
KYPokerman1 folds.
The_Who70 folds.
awpeh folds.
>You have options at Table 22501 Table!.
Tonyflip folds.
razzinu is all-In [723]
DOC4FACE is all-In [261]
>You have options at Table 22501 Table!.
TheLage ???

[durron597]

You would need 28% equity to make this call. I don't think you have it. I would fold.

[diconoclastx]

Easy fold, not even close.

[axeshigh]

So YOU are TheLage.. hahaha. nh.

[curtains]

Degen cmon man, the guy raised almost 5x your BB and you hvae 73o. Am I reading the hand wrong or something?

I don't mean to be an [censored] but your post makes zero sense. First of all you say one of them is likely to have an OVERPAIR to your 7. This is completely ridiculous, they are two short stacks putting all their money in from the button and the SB. There is absolutely no reason why they would be "LIKELY" to have an overpair, and it's also completely irrelevant, because calling is hideously bad anyway.

Sorry to be harsh I just know you are trying to go pro and I have no idea what you are thinking here.

[The Yugoslavian]

Degen,

You really like these calling with good odds but reall bad hands, don't you? This isn't the first time I've seen this from you.

Here I think it's out of the question...you're so far behind both of your opponents and like at best 23% to win the showdown...also, you gain equity folding here anyway!!!

For the love of all that is donkable in STTs...fold man!

Yugoslav

Don't get too caught up in odds.

Even if you have pot odds to make a call, it does not always make it correct to do so IN TOURNAMET PLAY.

Here, you don't have close to the odds anyway, but if you keep thinking along these lines, there won't be many hands you will fold to allins, and you slowly become a fish.

Fold, please! /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Isura]

[ QUOTE ]

Anybody have a link to a working Converter?

[/ QUOTE ]

Remove the word "Texas" at the beginning of the HH and it should work.

[Degen]

[ QUOTE ]

Degen cmon man, the guy raised almost 5x your BB and you hvae 73o. Am I reading the hand wrong or something?

I don't mean to be an [censored] but your post makes zero sense. First of all you say one of them is likely to have an OVERPAIR to your 7. This is completely ridiculous, they are two short stacks putting all their money in from the button and the SB. There is absolutely no reason why they would be "LIKELY" to have an overpair, and it's also completely irrelevant, because calling is hideously bad anyway.

Sorry to be harsh I just know you are trying to go pro and I have no idea what you are thinking here.

[/ QUOTE ]

thanks for the feedback...for the record i did indeed fold here, the principle i was referring to was the maxim:

If you are getting 2:1 for your money and it is 1/3rd of your stack or less to call...you should call with any two cards...and I do this all the time, and it works out very well over the long run.

The problem here is that there are TWO people all-in, so i'm thinking that one of them most likely has an overpair to my high card...meaning that if say one had AJ and one had 66, it isn't outside of the realm of reasonable possiblity that I will win the pot...whereas if one has 99 and one has A6, there is almost no chance I will win...

I was looking to be told it was the proper fold...not the proper call lol

[Degen]

[ QUOTE ]
Degen,

You really like these calling with good odds but reall bad hands, don't you? This isn't the first time I've seen this from you.

Yugoslav

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I am caught. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Really I just like any 'rules' to follow, so my play can be as automatic and robotic as possible. Here, as I replied to curtains, this is a 2:1 1/3rd any two issue...but there are two of them so...???

I also like the 5/10 rule (if its 5% or less of yours and their stack call any raise/bet PF w/ any PP...or if it is over 10% of yours or their stack, don't call w/ small PP's) and other assorted rules. They're fun /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[freemoney]

this idea that its likely someone has an overpair is ridiculous.

[curtains]

No but okay the point is that it's not even remotely close. To even be considering a call here shows that you have some thinking flaws right now.

[ QUOTE ]
If you are getting 2:1 for your money and it is 1/3rd of your stack or less to call...you should call with any two cards

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this quote is also overly simplistic. Your less than 1/3rd of your stack amount is quite arbitrary and sounds like something that someone else said that you are just following blindly.

[ QUOTE ]

The problem here is that there are TWO people all-in, so i'm thinking that one of them most likely has an overpair to my high card


[/ QUOTE ]

Also again, you continue to say that one of the allin players most likely has an overpair to your seven. I believe this is completely false. I'd expect one of them to have an overpair about 25% of the time at the most. If it's more than that amount, its not by much. The SB had almost no chips when they decided to call the allin and could be doing so with a very wide range of hands. Meanwhile the button went allin with 5x the BB, and should also be expected to do this with a very wide range of hands.

I just want you to realize that you don't fold because one of them will have an overpair. You fold because you have 73o and obviously arent getting the right equity against their range of hands, which will however not OFTEN include an overpair.

[johnnybeef]

yes, fold this. The 2:1 rule applies to when you are heads up and the betting action is closed for the entire hand.

[curtains]

btw Degen I think both of the rules you stated are not so great. If you want to do as well as possible you cant just blindly follow maxims.

I mean one rule you stated basically says that if on the first hand of a sit and go, the UTG player raises to 50, and you are next to act with 33, you should call. I think calling is ridiculous, and I expect that you do too.

[curtains]

Also I can think of many situations where I wouldnt call headsup getting 2-1 for less than 1/3rd of my stack.

[Degen]

[ QUOTE ]

I just want you to realize that you don't fold because one of them will have an overpair. You fold because you have 73o and obviously arent getting the right equity against their range of hands, which will however not OFTEN include an overpair.


[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, thanks.

For the record it was 7 4o /images/graemlins/wink.gif Same diff

Thanks curtans

[Degen]

[ QUOTE ]



I mean one rule you stated basically says that if on the first hand of a sit and go, the UTG player raises to 50, and you are next to act with 33, you should call. I think calling is ridiculous, and I expect that you do too.

[/ QUOTE ]

No actually I don't. I would like to Hi-Jack my own thread here and break off into that topic if others want to jump in...


I often make that call, because of the rule, and I double up all the time when I flop sets.

I actually asked you in a thread a week or two ago why you passed with 99 in a situation very similar to the one you described above...and you said you'd never call it in a Step Mini or in a 200+15. My 200+15 experience is short, but I do know the play is very strong...well it is not the same in the 33's and 55's and your implied odds with small PP's are INSANE!! With hands like 99 it isn't even just set value that has huge odds....ppl pay me off constantly with Q8o when they flop and 8 and that type of thing...

The rule is actually a NLHE cash game rule, but I really really like it for SNG's and i've been doing it for a couple of months with fantastic results...


Any thoughts?

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
Really I just like any 'rules' to follow, so my play can be as automatic and robotic as possible. Here, as I replied to curtains, this is a 2:1 1/3rd any two issue...but there are two of them so...???


[/ QUOTE ]

this statement is bad news blue's clues. you aren't playing against robots, so wtf would you want to play like one? better players will pick up on it, and you will miss bets from worse players. form yourself a general strategy, and learn when it is appropriate to deviate from it.

[Degen]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Really I just like any 'rules' to follow, so my play can be as automatic and robotic as possible. Here, as I replied to curtains, this is a 2:1 1/3rd any two issue...but there are two of them so...???


[/ QUOTE ]

this statement is bad news blue's clues. you aren't playing against robots, so wtf would you want to play like one? better players will pick up on it, and you will miss bets from worse players. form yourself a general strategy, and learn when it is appropriate to deviate from it (hint: it will be rare).

[/ QUOTE ]

When it comes to how to play a set, or how to play AA, or flush draw...i agree.

But with these types of things, they come up maybe once or twice a tourney...and if i'm callling a small raise with 22-TT and the flop is AJ4 and they have AK...u don't think they will pay me off if they know the way i play? I'll get chips in that spot.

Playing cash games for hours, or with the same players over and over, i totally agree with you. But don't you think there is a certain level of anonymity in these tourneys? Don't we all have 2+ aliases and constantly change them?

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
Playing cash games for hours, or with the same players over and over, i totally agree with you. But don't you think there is a certain level of anonymity in these tourneys? Don't we all have 2+ aliases and constantly change them?

[/ QUOTE ]

I used to think this. At every level I have learned something new (specifically towards beating the level of sng), and I am finding that in order to beat the 55s, you need to start learning how to play your opponents. While I do follow a general starting hand range based upon position, how many players are in, and the blinds, there are times that I will deviate based on the fact that there is someone who I can control either already in the pot, or in the bb.

[Unarmed]

[ QUOTE ]

on the first hand of a sit and go, the UTG player raises to 50, and you are next to act with 33, you should call. I think calling is ridiculous, and I expect that you do too.

[/ QUOTE ]

Calling certainly isn't ridiculous...

[Newt_Buggs]

I don't think that its ridiculous, but it is a poor call.
-When you do flop your set UTG is more likely to respect your bets/raises than if you had called on the button
-reraises cut down on your implied odds
-the utg raise scares people obviously, so you're much less likely to get a multiway pot
-If he does have a premium pocket which is likely, there's still a decent chance that he can flop or draw to a higher set. If he has AK/AQ, most of the time he's not going to pay you off when you hit your set nearly enough to justify the 50 chips.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]

I mean one rule you stated basically says that if on the first hand of a sit and go, the UTG player raises to 50, and you are next to act with 33, you should call. I think calling is ridiculous, and I expect that you do too.

[/ QUOTE ]

It really depends on whether you think there will be a raise behind you. If you do not expect one (for whatever reason) then it's an easy call.

[curtains]

I don't think its an easy call anyway, but especially so since there is absolutely no reason to expect there won't ever be a raise behind you.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]

I don't think its an easy call anyway, but especially so since there is absolutely no reason to expect there won't ever be a raise behind you.

[/ QUOTE ]

You think it's wrong to risk 5% of your stack against a pfr with a low PP if you do not expect a raise behind you?

Granted on the first hand UTG+1 this is a muck most of the time but still, it's not unreasonable. Plus a lot of people are loathe to raise anything into a UTG preflop raise and an EP call.