tactical question

[kbnz]

I have a question about a situation that occurs and was wondering if anyone here plays it the same way or has any insight. Basically, you flop a flush draw and are raised by an LP player. You call the raise and get heads up on the turn. A blank falls, you check and the LP checks behind. Another blank falls on the river. Should you bet in most cases and hope to take it down?

Given the popularity of "raise for a free card" in LP flop play, it seems pretty likely that you're both on a draw and LP is likely to put you on top pair, bad kicker if you bet the river.

It doesn't seem like it has to work to much to positive EV.

Does this make sense? Is it a no-brainer? Is it a mistake?
The situation does present itself fairly frequently.

All comments are welcome.

[J.R.]

This is often a profitable bet, especially if you have an A high flush draw, giving you A high to show down.

I think this is pretty much a no brainer, and explains why it is often correct to bet the turn (semi-bluff) after raising the flop with a big draw.

[Ed Miller]

When my opponent shows weakness (and there is not much more weakness you can show than checking behind on the turn) generally I bet. Remember, though, that expert players will induce bluffs from you this way if you make this an autobet. So be a little wary about who your opponent is.

[J.R.]

So you think an expert would check behind on the turn with a made hand, with which they raised on the flop, with a two flush on the board?

I could see running into a hand like middle pair with a flush draw that raised the flop for a free card but has enough showdown value to call on the end. I agree that given a different board it is possible that an expert may attempt to induce a bluff, but I can't see that applying to the situation here. Am I missing something?

[bad beetz]

I think this is probably the most ripe situation for a river bluff. Make sure first, though, that this player is capable of a free card raise, because some weak players will make the turn check from kicker-fear and your bluff will certainly be called.

[Ed Miller]

The essence of my point is that sometimes the turn check will not mean a flush draw, and you should be on the lookout for detecting situations where it does not mean that.

And yes... I could imagine a situation where an expert might check behind on the turn headsup with a two flush on board with a made hand with the intent of inducing a river bluff (and also probably with the intent of avoiding a checkraise from a better hand that he would be forced to pay off for one reason or another). Like, for instance, this hand (http://www.twoplustwo.com/forums/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Board=mediumholdem&Number=22 2614&page=0&view=collapsed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1) that I posted a couple days ago.

[J.R.]

But in that situation the turn helped, and I think that is rare.

The point being that if the opponent raises the flop with a made hand, he is doing so to charge the flush draws and will follow through on the turn instead of giving a free card almost 100% of the time.

The vast majority of the times a player with position raises the flop with a two-flush on the board and checks behind on the turn they have a flush draw. Whether they caught middle or bottom pair on the flop or the turn improved them or not, they still have the flush draw.

I think the frequency with which an opponent will catch a pair on the flop or be helped on the turn is uncommon enough to justify leading the river when a blank falls, especially holding A high.

I recognize that these reads are not infallible but I think they are strong enough to make betting the river the correct play in the long run.