Online 2/4 AK vs Good Player-- missed flop. Plan from here?

[ThomasPHoolery]

UTG+1 is 50/5/1.2. Villian is a very good player, 21/10/2.2
Poker Room 2/4 10 handed
Preflop: Hero is MP3 w/ A /images/graemlins/spade.gif K /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Preflop: 1 fold UTG+1 raises, 2 folds , Hero 3 bets, 1 fold , CO Caps, button folds, blinds fold, UTG +1 folds , Hero Calls

Flop: (11.5 sb) 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif


What's the play from here, assuming we see the turn (and by no means do you have to stick to that assumption-- please justify a flop fold if you feel it's the best play).

Plans for both if we improve on the turn or if we miss.
Also assume villian will bet if checked to (from his stats in 300+ hands with him, that seems to be the case) and leading into him will likely result in a flop raise.

[olavfo]

Looks like you're dead. My reasoning would go like this:

1. Villain most likely has AA (3 ways), KK (3 ways), QQ (3 ways) or possibly AK (9 ways).

2. If he has AK, we most likely split the pot, against the big pocket pairs, we need runner-runner, or we're drawing dead (QQ).

3. Therefore I check-fold this flop and save myself from further pain & agony.

Maybe we can extend Villain's range of 4-betting hands somewhat, but we'll most likely come to the same conclusion.

Even with AQ (rather unlikely) plus JJ and TT (also not very likely) included, he's still a heavy favourite to win this pot, and the pot is too small for us to call profitably against a weighted average of his possible hands.

(Obviously I'm assuming Villain is "good" as in tight-aggressive, not too crazy, and with solid preflop play.)

olavfo