Bottom 2 Makes me Sick (occasionally)

[MLG]

3rd level of the PP Million. I have 2700 after crushing AJ with KJ. 3 limpers and I complete inthe SB with J9o. Flop comes Q /images/graemlins/club.gifJ /images/graemlins/club.gif9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, I have no clubs. I lead for 120 into the 150 pot. EP limper makes it 350 and it folds back around to me. I'm pretty sure I have no good options, so what's my least bad one.

Edit: EP Limper started hand with 2100.

[kyro]

If you're ahead, it's not by much. And if you're behind, you need a lot of help. If I'm calling, I'm only going any further on a non club/A/K/Q/T/8 turn.

So basically, I can't see how folding can be terrible here.

[ThrillFactor]

What is EP's stack?

Scary board full of draws and he doesn't appear to be worried about keeping the pot small.

[ThrillFactor]

[ QUOTE ]
If you're ahead, it's not by much. And if you're behind, you need a lot of help. If I'm calling, I'm only going any further on a non club/A/K/Q/T/8 turn.

So basically, I can't see how folding can be terrible here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you leading out on a non-scare turn or risking a free card?

If you're raised on a blank turn, what do you do?
If you're called, what's your river plan?


Edit: Hands like this get me in trouble all the time, so I'm mega-curious about this one.

[skoal2k4]

There's a lot of hands that fit into this flop that an EP limper will play. I just don't see how you can be ahead most of the time here? A fold isn't bad, but neither is a call necessarily. If he is on a draw, you might get it checked on the turn and you both get a free card. If I call the flop bet, I'm more than likely laying this down to a turn bet UI though. Tough hand and tough situation /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[Lloyd]

What about checking the flop and seeing the action. If the flop is bet and raised it certainly gives you good information. I think a flop with that texture will almost certainly be raised when led out from the SB. But are you up against top pair, a set, a draw, a slow played overpair? And if it's checked around that gives you good info as well.

[skoal2k4]

[ QUOTE ]
What about checking the flop and seeing the action. If the flop is bet and raised it certainly gives you good information. I think a flop with that texture will almost certainly be raised when led out from the SB. But are you up against top pair, a set, a draw, a slow played overpair? And if it's checked around that gives you good info as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

I got nothing wrong with doing that either... I think this is one of those situations where a lot of answers would generally "acceptable"

[Iconoclastic]

It's a check-fold to a large bet on the Flop and Turn/call small bets, check-call River.

Once you're in the pickle you're in, just Fold.

The reason why being very Tight Passive is best in this situation is because it's the kind of situation where you're either going to win a little or lose a lot due to having the worst position. It's not like you have a set either.

The situation would be completely different if you were on the button, but when you're in EP just get out of there while losing the minimum amount.

[Stipe_fan]

I am not so sure about checking it. If someone bets, he could have a hand or maybe he is positional betting the flop. I think you need to lead and if you are raised, I know it sounds weak, but you needs to release it. I would hate myself but I think it is the right play.

I don't think a check-raise will accomplish anything so I would definitely rule that out.

[locutus2002]

Hero folds, or calls intending to represent the flush.

there are ~40 hands that beat you.
There are ~50 flush draws but only 6 or 7 premium draws that might warrant a raise, and villain would limp in EP PF.

There's the Harrington 10% that villain is making a move. Note that its a very dangerous board for villain to be making a move on.

There are ~28 cards that hero doesn't want to see on the turn including a,k,q,t,8, club, and just as many on the river.

You are not enough ahead of any of the premium draws to get them to fold ATF, and the better hands are likely to call so I think your FE is pretty low here.

In general there are alot of possible hands that make the str8 which gives villain an overwhelming superiority in the range of hands he can raise with versus hero's two pr.

I think if hero wants to play he has to be willing to represent the flush on the turn if a club comes. If you combine this with the chance of hitting a full house, then you might be able to justify calling T230 into a pot of T850.

[rugz]

I dont think calling his raise is incorrect seeing as how an aggressive player will do this with hands like AQ, KQ, which is nice for you. I can also see a play like this being made with a hand like A10 clubs. I would like to have some sort of read on who's raising me but nonetheless I wouldn't just give up on 2 pr on the flop because of a little resistance. However, your hand is certainly not strong enough, w/o a read, to reraise so I would call his raise check the turn and see what he throws out. Read his bet and do what your instincts tell u, prolly to fold. Theres still plenty of time to regain the chips lost.

[MLG]

I hate checking. First, a free card is killer here. Second, if EP bets you still have no idea where you stand. Calling doesn't make the turn easier to play then because it looks like you're on a draw so EP will bet worse made hands again. At the same time you can't rule out him being on a draw, since many draws will bet here, so you won't really be able to bluff a scare card to make a better made hand fold. If an LP player bets you have to raise to isolate and protect against draws, but then what? Its easy for him to have like any 2. So he'll fold his bluffs and either call or push with his made hands or draws. If he calls then he can just sit and take this pot away from you on the turn and river since there are so many scare cards. Maybe you can fold if he pushes, but there are all sorts of hands you're about even with that will push here. I don't like checking at all.

[woodguy]

I put him on KQ ,KJ,QJ, AT...none with 2 clubs.

edit:missed QT,TJ, 9T

I think I call the flop raise.

I check/raise all in on a club turn, lead out if I fill up.

Probably check/fold on a T,K or 8 (unless its a club)

If it blanks and he bets strongly, I probably c/r all in.

If he puts a bet out there that looks like it wants a call I throw something at the screen.

Meh, none of those are great, he may call a check/raise allin on turn if a club falls and he has one...tough spot.

Regards,
Woodguy

[MLG]

only 6 or 7 draws? You are ignoring all sorts of combo hands and made hands that will raise here. hands like Q10, J10, A10 (with or without clubs) 1010, KQ, AQ, slowplayed AA, 78 of clubs.

Unless you included 13 out hands in the hands that beat us. I don't think you should though because they are barely ahead of us now.

[rugz]

Why would you put your tourney life at stake when all you have is bottom 2 pr on a scary board, and a flush turn? Especially if he bets strongly? what happened to the saying "never go broke in an unraised pot?"

[MLG]

[ QUOTE ]
what happened to the saying "never go broke in an unraised pot?"




[/ QUOTE ]

Its a stupid cliche, that's what happened. Although I do happen to agree that check-raising the turn if a club hits is too wreckless.

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
Although I do happen to agree that check-raising the turn if a club hits is too wreckless

[/ QUOTE ]

I resemble that remark.

Regards,
Woodguy

[MLG]

yeah, you need to get this cr all-in bluff when the other guy's draw hits out of your arsenal.

[locutus2002]

I would lump all these hands with the harrington 10%.
I don't like villain's raise without a club, unless he's planning on making a move, which is tough on this board.

My own tight style won't accomodate villain raising with AQ here with so many chips behind. The kind of player who plays these hands is going to be able to put you to some difficult questions at the turn if a brick comes.

Without a better feel for the player, so early in the tournament, I would call the turn, represent the flush, and fold to any push.

[woodguy]

What % of the time do you think he's raising 2 clubs here?

edited for clarity: what % of the time that you see this flop raise is it 2 clubs (with or without the straight draw)

Regards,
Woodguy

[Lloyd]

[ QUOTE ]
I am not so sure about checking it. If someone bets, he could have a hand or maybe he is positional betting the flop. I think you need to lead and if you are raised, I know it sounds weak, but you needs to release it. I would hate myself but I think it is the right play.

I don't think a check-raise will accomplish anything so I would definitely rule that out.

[/ QUOTE ]
I would bet that you will be raised nearly 100% of the time after leading out from the SB. You're not going to be given credit for 2 pair and with so many limpers there's a good chance of somebody having top pair who will raise. I think you'll just be wasting a lot of chips. If it's folded to LP who raises, then it could certainly be positional in which case a call and lead out on the turn or raise would be in order.

[MLG]

including those hands in the 10% is flat out wrong. All of those hands have a ton of equity on their own right, and are not really bluffs at all. If you are not willing to play big pots with these hands on these flops you are making a mistake. Obviously a raise here has lots of FE since people want me to lay down bottom two, and you are almost never buried even when you're behind. To count these hands as merely pure bluffs is a pretty big error.

[SoBeDude]

I think you should reraise hard.

a made straight waits until the turn to pop, wanting to see a non-club.

who raises here is top pair plus straight draw, or pair plus flush, or some other combination you're often aheaf of. He doesn't have a set because he'd have raised with a pair of any of those cards preflop.

Yes there is a chance you're behind to a bigger two pair. That's like KK vs AA on a J-high flop. He's getting your chips and chit happens.

I say put him to the test right here.

-Scott

[MLG]

honestly I have no idea. But you also have to ask, what % of the time that you make the bluff will the other guy lay down his hand when you are in fact behind. That means he'd need to fold straights/sets/bigger two pair on the turn in a big pot. I just don't think that's likely from your average early in a tournament party monkey.

[SoBeDude]

[ QUOTE ]
What about checking the flop and seeing the action. If the flop is bet and raised it certainly gives you good information. I think a flop with that texture will almost certainly be raised when led out from the SB. But are you up against top pair, a set, a draw, a slow played overpair? And if it's checked around that gives you good info as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

Checking this flop is a colossal boo boo.

-Scott

[woodguy]

True.

Regards,
Woodguy

[adanthar]

Any read on the limper?

I call this and then check/fold a lot of turns while throwing up in my mouth a little.

[Stipe_fan]

Lloyd, do you think you get repopped that often? I guess it comes down your preceived image. If your image is tight you may be able to take it down with a bet. If your image is loose and possible wreckless then your bet, like you stated, would be a waste of your stack.

Is there any bet that would make sense, in your eyes? Do you think a 1/2 pot bet or maybe a pot sized bet. I know that if you are raised then one has to assume they are protecting a hand and then you could release it. I really think you need to bet for information.

Maybe a 1/2 pot sized bet?

Stipe

[MLG]

well, i hadn't noted him as a super fish or anything. So he probably was at least decent.

[Stipe_fan]

MLG, what was your table image? If you were loose and wreckless you will probably get reraised. If the table perceived you as tight, which I doubt, then your bet will accomplish these two things.

If you are called, they're most likely drawing on you
If you are reraised, they're most likely protecting a hand

I try to think what kind of player they think I am, and then make my move.

Stipe

[MLG]

wreckless, definitely wreckless. I won a hand where I open raised from the button, the BB repopped me, and I thought he was restealing. He was shortish, so I pushed. HE called with AJ, and I had KJ. So, if he was paying attention, a big if, then he thinks im pretty damn aggresive.

[Stipe_fan]

Then I think you will most definitely get reraised. So, my question to you is what you are attempting to accomplish with the 120 bet? I said earlier that I agree with your 120 bet but you have to know that you will be reraised by anyone holding a decent hand since they think you are loose/aggressive. So, if they think you are loose, they might raise with an inferior hand. I don't think they put you on a great hand since you will raise with nothing.

Thus, I think there is no way he puts you on bottom two.

Such a simple game to learn but this hand shows us how complex it can get.

Stipe

[SossMan]

with your image, I think that you need to put in a large reraise there. Make it something like t1265. (i like even numbers)

[MLG]

how's that different from pushing?

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
how's that different from pushing?

[/ QUOTE ]


t1265 = scary

[MLG]

if you had a straight or set would you ever make that bet? there are two clubs out there. this is all assuming that he's thinking enough to interpret scary v not scary, but not thinking so much that he realizes its exactly the same thing. meh, i think long run its not worth putting in these scary looking raises instead of just pushing.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
if you had a straight or set would you ever make that bet? there are two clubs out there. this is all assuming that he's thinking enough to interpret scary v not scary, but not thinking so much that he realizes its exactly the same thing. meh, i think long run its not worth putting in these scary looking raises instead of just pushing.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think you are wrong, especially given the recent history (the KJ/AJ hand where you pushed). Against a lot of skill levels, sure, it won't make a difference if you push or make a smaller raise.
But against medium skilled players, you can sometimes get them to lay down hands with a smaller raise that they would call an all in with. You can exploit the "he looks like he wants a call" mentality.

Josh Arieh did this in the final table of the ME when he asked DW how much he had left. DW said like 800k, and Josh made it 500k to go.

As for your question...yes, that's the exact raise i would make w/ a straight or set on this board.

[MLG]

Making the small raise makes a flush draw's life so easy. he's right if he calls, he's right if he pushes, just as long as he doesn't fold. I understand what you're saying, but I've just never been convinced when I'm playing that the oh he made a small bet that's scary factor outweighs the oh if I call I'm out of the tournament factor.

[fnord_too]

Well, here's what I probably do:

I call and lead any turn for about 500, which leaves me with about 1900 and puts the pot at about 1900 if he calls.

What could this guy have? There are 4 hands that scare me:
99, QJ, 8T, KT (with KT being the least likey, and both straights probably being suited but not in clubs, QJ probably suited, too).

What other hands might raise here: AQ, KQ, AJ, AT, TT, AA/KK (whiffed pre flop limp reraise), A9s (not clubs) (unlikely but possible), 88 maybe.

I think it is much more likely that you are up against a one pair hand here, maybe with a straight draw like QTs, than anything else. Why would he be raising here with a flush draw? Lots of limpers who may tag along giving him excelent odds, and the possibility of someone behind him having a real hand and pushing him off his draw (while costing him another 10+% of his stack). It sure looks like villain has a vulnerable made hand, and there are not a whole lot of those that beat you.

If you lead for 500 on the turn, you put villain in a very awkward spot*: He can raise 1250 more, giving you ~2.5:1 on his call or he can call leaving the pot at 1900 with 1250 behind, or he can just go away.

I like this line over raising right now because some times he will have you beat right now and some of the times he does the turn will scare him and make him lay down a better hand. (e.g. he has say QJ and the turn comes T or a /images/graemlins/club.gif he is going to have a very tough decision.)

If he pushes the turn you may have a tough decision, but you will be getting 2.5:1 so you will probably have to call anything other than a K or 8.

*Awkward assuming he does not have a very strong hand!

[sxz18]

I think a fold is in order here for a couple of reasons. It's hard to believe at the 3rd level (25/50 I believe?), EP will show a hand like AQ right here. I think it's very likely he has a hand like KT or T9c or QJ or maybe even a set. There's just not a lot of hands you can beat that would be raising here. With no reads, I would not think EP would semi-bluff raise with two more players to act behind him. It's hard to believe you're ahead as there are so many hands he could be raising with here where he either dominates you already (set or QJ or KT) or has a monster draw with T9c.

[SossMan]

you asked for the 'least bad' option. i never claimed that it was a good option. /images/graemlins/grin.gif


wha' happened?

http://www.worlddreambank.org/B/BONKBARF.JPG

[MLG]

During the hand I pushed for the following reasons. There are lots of mdae hands im ahead of. Specifically, AQ/AA/KK/KQ are hands I can see a lot. I think that's probably not the best course of action. I let the made hands I'm beating off the hook while only getting called by hands that crush me, or combo hands I'm about even money with. Which, while not the end of the world isn't ideal either. I also thought at the time that with so many scare cards there was potential for me to get pushed off the best hand on the turn or river.

Thinking about it though, I don't think that's the case. If he has a made hand its hard for him to bet scare cards if I just call the flop raise because it looks like I'm on the draw. I think the best play is to call the flop, lead non dangerous turns, and check fold most scare cards.

Oh, villain thought for a while and then turned over K10 of spades for the nuts. Slow rollers are the scum of the earth.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Oh, villain thought for a while and then turned over K10 of spades for the nuts. Slow rollers are the scum of the earth.


[/ QUOTE ]

maybe he put you on k /images/graemlins/club.gift /images/graemlins/club.gif and was trying to not get freerolled for his 'tournament life'.

[locutus2002]

OK, lets do some back of the envelope math to see where we are at: I am not advocating a push, lets just suppose it.

hero pushes and risks 1930 (villain's remaining chips) to win 620.

Let's start by assuming that villain folds everything but 2pr++ so there are ~40 hands in which villain is 5:1 dog; => EV ~725. So villain needs to fold ~2:1 or ~80 hands to bring hero's total EV to ~1930 (~725 + 2 X 620).

So the question is are there ~80 hands that villain will raise with ATF and fold to a push?


Total - with at least one club
KQ-12 ways 3 ways
AA - 6 ways 3 ways
KK - 6 ways 3 ways
KJ - 8 ways 2 ways
K9 - 8 ways 6 ways
AT - 16 ways 6 ways
AK - 16 ways 6 ways
TJ - 8 ways 2 ways
T9 - 8 ways 2 ways
T7 - 16 ways 6 ways
QT - 12 ways 4 ways
T6* - 16 ways 6 ways (may not open worse than this in EP)
two clubs ~50 ways (double counting some of the hands listed).

so villain needs to raise to T350 with at least any two clubs, and a pair with one club to make 80 hands.

Overall it looks pretty unclear and is not a huge EV+ for hero even if villain will raise with a hand like K /images/graemlins/club.gifQ.
The situation will be affected by villain's willingness to raise some of the more marginal hands. I don't see why hero would want to commit his chips here when he is either way behind with no FE or a little ahead with a lot of FE (assuming villain throws down the marginal hands to a push)

In general the hands against which you are ahead have a greater chance of improving than you do, so hero's situation is not likely to improve at the turn: I don't think hero wants to see any more cards.

OK, lets do some back of the envelope math...
boy, that's a large envelope

hero pushes and risks 1930 (villain's remaining chips) to win 620.

Let's start by assuming that villain folds everything but 2pr++ so there are ~40 hands in which villain is 5:1 dog; => EV ~725. So villain needs to fold ~2:1 or ~80 hands to bring hero's total EV to ~1930 (~725 + 2 X 620).

So the question is are there ~80 hands that villain will raise with ATF and fold to a push?


Total - with at least one club
KQ-12 ways 3 ways
AA - 6 ways 3 ways
KK - 6 ways 3 ways
KJ - 8 ways 2 ways
K9 - 8 ways 6 ways
AT - 16 ways 6 ways
AK - 16 ways 6 ways
TJ - 8 ways 2 ways
T9 - 8 ways 2 ways
T7 - 16 ways 6 ways
QT - 12 ways 4 ways
T6* - 16 ways 6 ways (may not open worse than this in EP)
two clubs ~50 ways (double counting some of the hands listed).

so villain needs to raise to T350 with at least any two clubs, and a pair with one club to make 80 hands.



http://www.istockphoto.com/file_thumbview_approve/349633/2/Envelope.jpg

[locutus2002]

lot of estimates: the point is it can mostly be done in your head.

hero pushes 1930 to win 620 ~3:1
~30 str8s (kt, t8)
~10 2pr++ (qq,jj,99,qj,q9)
hero is 5:1 dog (4 outs X 2 tries)
hero has 15% in the center (~T4200) for 725
needs 1200 to make him whole which means picks up 620 twice for every call. 2:1 => 80 hands

~50 flush draws (10club X 10 clubs /2 )
~80 pairs with 1/3 of them having a club. ~30

Much smaller envelope needed.

[curtains]

I like to check these flops, but I know I'm in the minority here. You aren't going to win a big pot with your J9o here most of the time, and you often aren't going to clarify anything by leading out.