Can I fold here ? [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

MadMat

08-01-2005, 05:23 PM

SB has been at table for one orbit, this is first hand he's played.

Looking back at this now all those calls look awful, educate me please I was really lost here, felt I had pot odds to call flop/turn but not enough equity to raise

PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
2 folds, MP1 calls, Hero raises, 2 folds, SB 3-bets, 1 fold, MP1 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
SB bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (5 BB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
SB bets, Hero calls.

River: (7 BB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
SB bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 9 BB

chaz64

08-01-2005, 05:28 PM

I'm not sure what I'd do with this one. I'm trying to think of a PF raising hand that Hero beats, and I'm not coming up with much.

Rev. Good Will

08-01-2005, 05:29 PM

why no raise on turn?

EDIT - upmost def beat on river as you know, but I'd call for sanity, and to see villian's 3betting standards

MadMat

08-01-2005, 05:35 PM

Why would I raise the turn? I'm behind, and know it, so it's not for value, and I can't see him folding for one more bet here either!
I think even calling is marginal as spiking the straight could well only give me half the pot

Mat

@bsolute_luck

08-01-2005, 05:40 PM

i'm assuming you lost?

actually, i don't mind how you played it. i hate the river card as most any 3-betting preflop hands have you beat, but i'll make the crying call for 1BB on the river- leak, maybe /images/graemlins/grin.gif

silkyslim

08-01-2005, 05:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Why would I raise the turn? I'm behind, and know it,

[/ QUOTE ]
calling is the worst option, so fold then.

08-01-2005, 05:44 PM

i think you should be folding on the turn, theres basically nothing you can beat but a bluff or some maniac raising with whatever. All your outs could easily be bad as well.

hizo1

08-01-2005, 05:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why would I raise the turn? I'm behind, and know it,

[/ QUOTE ]

calling is the worst option, so fold then.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you please educate me as to why calling is the worst option here?

xenthebrain

08-01-2005, 05:48 PM

I think you can call the turn, since you will be ahead some of the time with a pair of Qs and even if not you still have good odds to call for the OESD,
but I cannot imagine any preflop 3-bet hand that you beat on the river (except maybe agressively played KQs, and that's just for a splitpot).

@bsolute_luck

08-01-2005, 05:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why would I raise the turn? I'm behind, and know it,

[/ QUOTE ]

calling is the worst option, so fold then.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you please educate me as to why calling is the worst option here?

[/ QUOTE ]

if you're behind and you know it, why would you call- i'm assuming Hero knows he's up against AK/Q or trips.

the OP might be speaking out of result-oriented thinking, but seeing as SB is unknown, looking at the hand, i can't be certain that he is behind. i do however think raising is a bad option unless you're willing to fold to a 3-bet.

Felipe

08-01-2005, 05:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Why would I raise the turn? I'm behind, and know it, so it's not for value, and I can't see him folding for one more bet here either!
I think even calling is marginal as spiking the straight could well only give me half the pot

Mat

[/ QUOTE ]

why would you call the turn if you ARE behind. and why the river call when its VERY VERY VERY VERY likely he/she's got an A.

MadMat

08-01-2005, 05:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]

if you're behind and you know it, why would you call- i'm assuming Hero knows he's up against AK/Q or trips.

the OP might be speaking out of result-oriented thinking, but seeing as SB is unknown, looking at the hand, i can't be certain that he is behind. i do however think raising is a bad option unless you're willing to fold to a 3-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

An unknown 3-betting - I put him on a big pair or AK, most probably a big pair

I had 8 outs to beat AA-JJ and 4 outs to chop with AK, with 7BB already in the pot, and at least 1 BB, maybe 2 more from him on the river if I hit I just didn't see a fold here.

Mat

Felipe

08-01-2005, 05:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why would I raise the turn? I'm behind, and know it,

[/ QUOTE ]

calling is the worst option, so fold then.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you please educate me as to why calling is the worst option here?

[/ QUOTE ]

take some time to think about it. What does calling accomplish? Raising might induce a worse, or better hand to fold. Calling won't. Folding saves you money. calling won't

Raising allows you to be in the drivers seat and control the action. You can also raise to see how much your opponent likes his hand. Calling can't do these things. Calling is usually for slowplaying or when your last or 2nd-last to act and you can be quite certain you will close the action (say, for example, you were drawing and didn't want to fold or raise)

hizo1

08-01-2005, 06:00 PM

Ok thinking out loud...

The fact that villain hasn't played a hand in an entire orbit makes you think tightish... on the turn you're behind all of a TAG's three-betting hands except for 99 and maybe KQ.

You have six outs against AA
You have two + .5 x 8 = 6 outs against KK
You have 8 outs against QQ, JJ, TT
You have 1.5 against AK

Now I don't know how to reconcile all the alternatives and outs, but is calling still wrong KNOWING you're behind? I think we can give ourselves 5-6 outs given the options above no? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

hizo1

08-01-2005, 06:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Raising might induce a worse, or better hand to fold. Calling won't. Folding saves you money. calling won't

Calling is usually for slowplaying or when your last or 2nd-last to act and you can be quite certain you will close the action (say, for example, you were drawing and didn't want to fold or raise)

[/ QUOTE ]

I *think* we can establish with 95% certainty that we're behind on this turn, and as such we'll probably get three-bet if we raise. We are last to act on the turn and we're drawing to a decent number of outs against most three betting hands except AK. Please correct me as to why calling is still wrong here.

hizo1

08-01-2005, 06:09 PM

hmm... I think I'm liking the fold more and more... even if we do have 5-6 outs the pot is only 6 BBs when it comes to us on the turn.

@bsolute_luck

08-01-2005, 06:10 PM

don't look at me. i was simply commenting on the OP's comments that he KNOWS he's behind- to what he never said, but you have to figure, if that is the case, most 3-bet preflop hands you're looking at 2 outs for the Q and that's if you're not already behind to trips, so it's a fold.

that said, my first post said i think he played the hand fine. i think he lost on the river, but i'll make the crying call.

GrunchCan

08-01-2005, 06:12 PM

This hand looks fine to me.

Calling the flop is mandatory. Raising would be bad, since we have no hand and no FE. We have odds to draw to the straight, so we must call. SB almost always has an overpair here of KK or AA. AK is possible, JJ also, AJ is remotely possible.

We improve on the turn, and if ever there was a point when we should fold, this was it. But there are more hands that the opponent could have that we are drawing live against than we are drawing dead against, so calling is probably close to neutral. Raising would be bad.

We improve yet again on the river, and now our hand has a slim chance of being best. How slim? We're probably good more often than 1:8, so I think we need to call this river. I expect to see AA most often, followed by KK, then AK.

Edit: I dont know why I didnt see how opponent improved when we did, but on the river there is no hand that we are ahead of. Fold the river.

MadMat

08-01-2005, 06:13 PM

Results in white below: 
Hero has Qc Kd (two pair, kings and queens).
SB has Ad Kc (straight, ace high).
Outcome: SB wins 9 BB.

xenthebrain

08-01-2005, 06:14 PM

Against which hands we win 1 out of 8 times?

GrunchCan

08-01-2005, 06:14 PM

Results don't matter. I stand by my line.

hizo1

08-01-2005, 06:14 PM

I now see that if you KNOW you're behind then you should probably fold on the turn. thanks for the help

POKhER

08-01-2005, 06:14 PM

Raise the turn,
River... I say bet.. but a check raise to straight would suck! A/9 hmmm

Check/call inducebluff maybe and its a crying call /images/graemlins/smile.gif
POKhER

@bsolute_luck

08-01-2005, 06:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Results don't matter. I stand by my line.

[/ QUOTE ]

is it wrong that i find sweet relief that Grunch agrees with me /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

GrunchCan

08-01-2005, 06:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Against which hands we win 1 out of 8 times?

[/ QUOTE ]

Nevermind. I edited my post.

GrunchCan

08-01-2005, 06:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Results don't matter. I stand by my line.

[/ QUOTE ]

is it wrong that i find sweet relief that Grunch agrees with me /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Ah but my river line was bad.

@bsolute_luck

08-01-2005, 06:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Results don't matter. I stand by my line.

[/ QUOTE ]

is it wrong that i find sweet relief that Grunch agrees with me /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Ah but my river line was bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, i figured we were beat too, but i made the crying call.

hizo1

08-01-2005, 06:18 PM

Grunch why is calling the turn correct if we're only drawing to ~6 outs to most three-betting preflop hands? Is it because I have monsters under the bed syndrome and we may still be ahead? thanks

GrunchCan

08-01-2005, 06:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why would I raise the turn? I'm behind, and know it, so it's not for value, and I can't see him folding for one more bet here either!
I think even calling is marginal as spiking the straight could well only give me half the pot

Mat

[/ QUOTE ]

why would you call the turn if you ARE behind. and why the river call when its VERY VERY VERY VERY likely he/she's got an A.

[/ QUOTE ]

Becasue we could be drawing live. Pot odds tell you if you should continue when you're drawing.

GrunchCan

08-01-2005, 06:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Grunch why is calling the turn correct if we're only drawing to ~6 outs to most three-betting preflop hands? Is it because I have monsters under the bed syndrome and we may still be ahead? thanks

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I think the hand is worth slightly more than 6 outs. The opponent doesn't have a flush draw every time. In fact, he doesn't hanve the flush more often than he does, I'd say.

But even assuming that your 6 outs is correct, I think calling is still probably +EV, becasue we can almost always pull 2 bets out of him on the river when we hit. Very often, we can get more. Implied odds.

MadMat

08-01-2005, 06:24 PM

Thanks for the input guys, much appreciated, was worried I'd turned into a calling station when I saw that hand in a review of a losing session!

Mat

johnc

08-01-2005, 06:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Raising might induce a worse, or better hand to fold. Calling won't. Folding saves you money. calling won't

Calling is usually for slowplaying or when your last or 2nd-last to act and you can be quite certain you will close the action (say, for example, you were drawing and didn't want to fold or raise)

[/ QUOTE ]

I *think* we can establish with 95% certainty that we're behind on this turn, and as such we'll probably get three-bet if we raise. We are last to act on the turn and we're drawing to a decent number of outs against most three betting hands except AK. Please correct me as to why calling is still wrong here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I fully agree this is a raise/fold situation. Calling accomplishes nothing. If we're really that sure we're behind (I've never been "95%" sure, ever) then easy fold why stick around a pay him off. Raising ,however IMO is the best option b/c it forces the decision into the other guy's lap. He'll be the thinking about whether he's got you beat - if he decides that yes he's got the winning hand then a 3-bet will let you know that at which point you can muck. You put in 2 bbs for the raise (just like calling the turn and river bets) but you'll have a much more accurate assessment of where you stand plus the chance of him folding (tiny, I know) definately pushes this on into a turn raise.

Aaron W.

08-01-2005, 06:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Ok thinking out loud...

The fact that villain hasn't played a hand in an entire orbit makes you think tightish... on the turn you're behind all of a TAG's three-betting hands except for 99 and maybe KQ.

You have six outs against AA
You have two + .5 x 8 = 6 outs against KK
You have 8 outs against QQ, JJ, TT
You have 1.5 against AK

Now I don't know how to reconcile all the alternatives and outs, but is calling still wrong KNOWING you're behind? I think we can give ourselves 5-6 outs given the options above no? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

See SSH 109.