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johnnybeef
08-01-2005, 03:15 PM
After talking to various members of this forum who I have either befriended or associated my self with, and then reading this thread (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=3019137&page=0&view=c ollapsed&sb=5&o=14) and this thread (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=3019332&page=1&view=c ollapsed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1#Post3019347), it has become very apparent to me that there are a ton of people who don't truly understand variance around here. I'm not sure what the general consensus on me as a poster here is, but I believe most people respect my opinion and advice. Over the last two months I have been barely break even playing sngs. Irie wrote a brilliant post about downswings that can be found here (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=1765434&page=&view=&s b=5&o=) . I kind of want to add a few figures to show some newbies what is possible here. In the last four months, I have been living off of poker winnings exclusively. April and May I was crushing the 22s and 33s, and spent money like a drunken sailor ($200 jeans.) At the beginning of June I went to Vegas with everyone for the wsop, went broke, and have struggled since. Since the beginning of June, I have had downswings of 20, 35 and 45 buyins respectively. During my latest swing, I have gotten my chips in itm 7 times in a row with top pair only to be called by a draw that hit. My 1st place % over the last 400 sngs is 7.3%. My Roi over that same stretch is -5. IT IS HIGHLY POSSIBLE FOR A GREAT PLAYER TO RUN THIS BAD AT ANY TIME.

My point in writing this is to inform people of how bad it can get, as I have seen many people around here hit their first bad stretch and freak out. Stay calm. If you play the right way, it will turn around eventually, as, like life, poker is full of peaks and valleys.

Good luck everyone,
Johnny

kevstreet
08-01-2005, 03:28 PM
Thank you for the well thought out post. Hope to read about your future success soon.

Sabrazack
08-01-2005, 03:34 PM
This gives me alot of hope, i shall save it and read it whenever im feeling sad about running bad. Knowing someone is running worse might be abit comforting.

psyduck
08-07-2005, 01:08 AM
When you say you went broke in Vegas, do you mean you cashed out your online bankroll and used it there as well? What limits were you playing to lose that much? Or were you just LAGging it up?

ReDeYES88
08-07-2005, 01:25 AM
sinusoidal

raptor517
08-07-2005, 01:38 AM
it aint bad yet if yer only -5 over 400 /images/graemlins/wink.gif. it can get worse. holla

durron597
08-07-2005, 01:46 AM
I hate when you play a set and you make a mistake or two and you're like "its ok I'm playing +$EV poker and the long run will come soon." Then you play nigh-perfect poker in the next set and still lose money to bad beats. Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

johnnybeef
08-07-2005, 07:25 AM
[ QUOTE ]
When you say you went broke in Vegas, do you mean you cashed out your online bankroll and used it there as well? What limits were you playing to lose that much? Or were you just LAGging it up?

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah i took my online roll out there (~3k). 600-700 went to strippers (thanks irie), i played in two multis that were ~$200 a piece. and then i lost the rest in every ring game i played (10-20 omaha hilo at the wynn, 4/8 holdem at the wynn, 1/2nl at the wynn and palms, 4/8 omaha hilo at the bellagio, 8/16 holdem at the wynn)

johnny005
08-07-2005, 07:49 AM
I'm glad you posted this johnny, ITs about 7:44 here And I'm still up cause I cant sleep due to my recent down swing I just came to my computer to try and figure things out.. I know variance can be a painfull, But how does one distiguish running bad and playing? And when does running bad start affect your playing? I know the answer to this question is different from person to person.
I find myself second guessing every decsion I make when I'm pn a bad streak. It would be nice if I had a poker genie sitting behind me telling me when I'm making a stupid play...
Like the other night I tried an action semi-bluff with pocket kings /images/graemlins/smile.gif what was I thinking??

Freudian
08-07-2005, 08:01 AM
While it is certainly true that winning players can go on losing or breakeven streaks that are longer than you intuitively would think is possible I think it is important to be cautious when analyzing a bad run.

When running bad for a long time just shrugging it off with "it's just variance" is a comforting thought but may not be the entire truth. I know I have leaks in my game by default. I do know I play extra tourneys when running bad, which is a form of tilt. So for me (and I would guess most others here) it would be more truthful to say "It is just variance, tilt and bad play".

My point is that we shouldn't be content with just reckoning it is variance. We should try to figure out how much the other factors influence. It is a cliche but the best time to fix problems with your game is when running bad because when running good the problems are hidden behind good luck and it may be very hard to spot them.

skipperbob
08-07-2005, 08:55 AM
[ QUOTE ]
My Roi over that same stretch is -5. IT IS HIGHLY POSSIBLE FOR A GREAT PLAYER TO RUN THIS BAD AT ANY TIME

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you know any of these, personally?

prepotency
08-07-2005, 10:45 AM
[ QUOTE ]
I know variance can be a painfull, But how does one distiguish running bad and playing?

[/ QUOTE ]

Get a friend to review your HHs. Seriously, it's the only way possible to get out of a funk sometimes. You just won't/can't acknowledge your own aggressive or loose mistakes until someone shakes you awake. Also, take a weekend off and do something physical; that seems to help me.

freemoney
08-07-2005, 12:39 PM
variance is the single most overrated thing on this forum, every new poster who is winning is having an upswing and every established poster losing is just due to negative variance, A GREAT PLAYER AT A LEVEL WILL BE BEATING IT FOR A 20% ROI AND A LOSING STREAK FOR A 20% ROI OVER 500 SNGS IS 1/100, SO ALTHOUGH ITS POSSIBLE ITS ALSO POSSIBLE FOR ME TO SAY PICK A NUMBER 1 TO 100 AND GUESS IT RIGHT ITS JUST NOT VERY LIKELY, it is much much more likely you are making a bunch of mistakes or have a fundamental misunderstanding then being just another 1/100 unlucky player.

gumpzilla
08-07-2005, 12:45 PM
[ QUOTE ]
A GREAT PLAYER (OR A MENTALLY HANDICAPPED PERSON WHO HAS TAKEN MY UNIQUE FREEMONEY SNG SCHOOL FOR IVY LEAGUE STUDENTS) AT A LEVEL WILL BE BEATING IT FOR A 20% ROI AND A LOSING STREAK FOR A 20% ROI OVER 500 SNGS IS 1/100, SO ALTHOUGH ITS POSSIBLE ITS ALSO POSSIBLE FOR ME TO SAY PICK A NUMBER 1 TO 100 AND GUESS IT RIGHT ITS JUST NOT VERY LIKELY, BY THE WAY YOU SHOULD ALL TYPE IN ALL CAPS, IT'LL TURN YOU INTO A GODDAMN SNG TYRANNOSAURUS, JUST LIKE ME

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

johnnybeef
08-07-2005, 01:03 PM
sure, you do too.

Paul2432
08-07-2005, 01:09 PM
[ QUOTE ]
variance is the single most overrated thing on this forum, every new poster who is winning is having an upswing and every established poster losing is just due to negative variance, A GREAT PLAYER AT A LEVEL WILL BE BEATING IT FOR A 20% ROI AND A LOSING STREAK FOR A 20% ROI OVER 500 SNGS IS 1/100, SO ALTHOUGH ITS POSSIBLE ITS ALSO POSSIBLE FOR ME TO SAY PICK A NUMBER 1 TO 100 AND GUESS IT RIGHT ITS JUST NOT VERY LIKELY, it is much much more likely you are making a bunch of mistakes or have a fundamental misunderstanding then being just another 1/100 unlucky player.

[/ QUOTE ]

You've made a common error in your analysis. Some of the high volume players here a playing more than 1000 SNGs/month or more than 10,000 SNGs/year. So while the odds of the next 500 SNGs running 20% below average may be only 1/100 the odds that it will happen eventually are much higher.

Suppose collectively the top 20 high volume players here play 20,000 SNGs per month. At least one of them probably has a run that bad every couple of months or so.

Paul

bones
08-07-2005, 01:09 PM
[ QUOTE ]
variance is the single most overrated thing on this forum, every new poster who is winning is having an upswing and every established poster losing is just due to negative variance, A GREAT PLAYER AT A LEVEL WILL BE BEATING IT FOR A 20% ROI AND A LOSING STREAK FOR A 20% ROI OVER 500 SNGS IS 1/100, SO ALTHOUGH ITS POSSIBLE ITS ALSO POSSIBLE FOR ME TO SAY PICK A NUMBER 1 TO 100 AND GUESS IT RIGHT ITS JUST NOT VERY LIKELY, it is much much more likely you are making a bunch of mistakes or have a fundamental misunderstanding then being just another 1/100 unlucky player.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yikes. "IT" is gonna hurt real bad for you when it comes...

freemoney
08-07-2005, 01:25 PM
this isnt the first or the 15th or the 50th poster to write this.

freemoney
08-07-2005, 01:28 PM
lol ive played 1000 ive had 20 buyin drops, ive gone 12 in a row out of the money or so its not like im running on this amazing super heater ive payed over 1000, i think im good enough to know how im running, people make huge mistakes that i generally dont thats why i win not because of variance.

johnnybeef
08-07-2005, 01:44 PM
[ QUOTE ]
this isnt the first or the 15th or the 50th poster to write this.

[/ QUOTE ]

as i stated in the op, there have been a lot of posts lately about how bad people are running, and i have been gettting the feeling that many of these bad runs are shaking peoples confidence. as such, i fealt it was necesarry to draft it.

freemoney
08-07-2005, 01:56 PM
this isnt a personal attack that i am making, and im not ignorant or mean-spirited as many of the posters choose to believe, when im running bad and even when its obvious like my AA loses to AQ theres always improvement that u can make and just always yelling variance really is not the best thing to do, theres always things you can do better, like then ill realize i should of value betted the river more against the guy 10 hands ago so when i did get unlucky i will have more chips because i played better, saying this is variance and itll turn around is not a good attitude, when running bad you get a great opportunity to really disect your play and improve, by saying its variance and i know im a winning player will stunt your growth and alot of times is not the case.

bones
08-07-2005, 01:59 PM
[ QUOTE ]
lol ive played 1000 ive had 20 buyin drops, ive gone 12 in a row out of the money or so its not like im running on this amazing super heater ive payed over 1000, i think im good enough to know how im running, people make huge mistakes that i generally dont thats why i win not because of variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

This reminds me of an OOT thread awhile back. "What would you tell your 16 year old self if you had the chance?" The correct answer, of course, is that it wouldn't matter. The conversation would go something like:

self now: Hey, I'm you ten years from now. Listen, next year you're gonna meet an amazingly hot girl named Wendy. Stay away from her. She will make your penis sore and [censored] up your head.

self then: Are you really me in the future? What kind of car do I have?

now: Shut the [censored] up. Did you hear what I said?

then: Whatever buddy. I'm smart enough to avoid broads like that.

now: Moran

Moral of the story: No matter how smart or talented some people are, they need to experience things for themselves to believe.

45suited
08-07-2005, 02:00 PM
[ QUOTE ]
While it is certainly true that winning players can go on losing or breakeven streaks that are longer than you intuitively would think is possible I think it is important to be cautious when analyzing a bad run.

When running bad for a long time just shrugging it off with "it's just variance" is a comforting thought but may not be the entire truth. I know I have leaks in my game by default. I do know I play extra tourneys when running bad, which is a form of tilt. So for me (and I would guess most others here) it would be more truthful to say "It is just variance, tilt and bad play".

My point is that we shouldn't be content with just reckoning it is variance. We should try to figure out how much the other factors influence. It is a cliche but the best time to fix problems with your game is when running bad because when running good the problems are hidden behind good luck and it may be very hard to spot them.

[/ QUOTE ]

I respect the swings that can happen as much as the next guy. But honestly, I tend to think that the "it's just variance" talk gets a little overplayed. The huge drops in buy-ins over a short period of time that Johnnybeef talked about in his OP seem unlikely to be caused by "just variance".

I'm hardly a mathemetician but I'd be interested in seeing the probabilities that those 3 swings could occur over the number of games that he is talking about for players of various ROIs.

Regarding his post about blowing his B/R in Vegas, by my calculations, after playing the $200 multis, his B/R was around $2000. Yet he played games with limits as high as 8-16 and 10-20. That seems like extremely reckless B/R management to me.

freemoney
08-07-2005, 02:04 PM
lol yeah its exactly like that...good point