Pocket Q's, 4 way cap pre-flop

[2+2 Junkie]

I only have 12 hands w/button, but he has played 50% of them so far, and he has raised about every hand he has played.
BB is semi-loose/passive
UTG like the other guy, has played over half of the 12 hands I have played with him so far.
I was really confused as to fold or go forward:

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB caps</font>, UTG calls, Hero calls, Button calls.

Flop: (16.50 SB) J/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, UTG calls, Hero calls, Button calls.

Turn: (14.25 BB) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG calls, Hero calls, Button calls.

River: (18.25 BB) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG folds, Hero calls, Button calls.

Final Pot: 21.25 BB

[teajay]

Depending on how passive BB is I'd cap the flop and raise the turn.

But since he capped it PF after it was already three and then check raised the flop, even if he's slightly passive I want to give him credit for a hand he's in love with. I like the call down.

[POKhER]

I play the same, But expect to see big hands (Sets/AA/KK Etc).

[MrWookie47]

BB capped preflop, and then check/3bet the flop. You described him as a passive player. You honestly think he may still have AK? I fold the flop when it's 2 back to you. You're drawing to 2 outs.

[car ramrod]

I would either cap the flop or fold, I don't like the call.
BB is who I am really worried about. I am stuck between folding the flop or capping and folding if he leads the turn.

[Fantam]

I suspect that BB had AA or KK, but what can you do other than call down?

The pot was too big to lay your overpair down IMHO. It would have been a disaster if you had folded and BB had AJs.

[MrWookie47]

No, it's not a disaster. It's all probability. You assign a probability to each of his possible hands, and you make your EV calculation based on that. If it's -EV to call down based on your best estimate, that's the end of it. It doesn't matter if it turns out that you would have won.

In this hand, BB went from zero to cap in 0.67 seconds. He's described as a passive player who presumably doesn't raise much preflop. He then CHECKED the flop (yellow alert), and 3bet when it came back (Danger! Danger!). I think his holdings here are AA about 50% of the time, JJ about 40% of the time, KK about 10% of the time, and stuff we beat and chop with some very small percentage of the time. The pot's pretty big, but we're only getting about 6.5:1 on calling down. I don't think we're good that often, and I don't think our Q outs make up for the deficit. I fold this flop.

[xenthebrain]

I'd cap the flop, maybe I would raise the turn, but this depends...

[Eeegah]

A check/3-bet from a passive player? ZING go my cards.

[2+2 Junkie]

I guess if I trusted my read enough to not cap the flop, I should have folded the turn. I was surprised by the check raise on the flop so I didn't think that capping it was +EV. I guess I just couldn't get myself to release QQ when the board board had J high.
Now, after reviewing the hand and reading the responses, I could see an argument for a turn call, but not a river call as well. It really seems as though I was drawing to two outs.

[xenthebrain]

[ QUOTE ]
Now, after reviewing the hand and reading the responses, I could see an argument for a turn call, but not a river call as well. It really seems as though I was drawing to two outs.

[/ QUOTE ]
Well, you cannot call the turn drawing to two outs.
But in my opinion, you don't make a big mistake if you would call down with QQ as an overpair everytime it happens.

[hicherbie]

folding this on the river after calling down would have been terrible. the pot at that point is easily big enough for a call.

[W. Deranged]

This is a good point.

One thing that is very important to think about whenever calling down with marginal holdings on the turn and river is that your plays need to be CONSISTENT:

-If you call the turn because you are drawing to a better hand AND you have odds to continue based purely on your draw, it is fine to call the turn and fold the river.
-If you call the turn based on some combination of draws and the probability you might be ahead, you CANNOT call the turn and fold the river. This line is LOGICALLY inconsistent. If you are going to be ahead enough to call the turn, you need to cash in this equity by calling the turn (and hence, you need to calculate whether your effective odds on calling the turn AND the river are large enough to merit continuing).


To make a long story short, you should not be calling the turn without odds to draw to a better hand unless you are confident that you will have the best hand often enough to call on the river also.

[2+2 Junkie]

So my decidsion here is on the flop? If I am calling the flop, I am commiting myself to the river. Is that the consensus?

[hicherbie]

pretty much. coming two bets back to you, you either decide to see a SD (barring horrendous runners and lots of action) or you muck it. even with reads, considering the opposition, i would tend to favor calling down in these spots.

[MrWookie47]

I agree that the decision about whether or not to see a showdown should be made on the flop once it's two bets back to you, but I'm still not convinced that hero is good 2 times out of 15, which is about how often he needs to be ahead to call the flop. What hands are you putting villain on often enough to warrant calling down in this case?

[hicherbie]

well, weve seen all the action remember? if this had just been the flop, would you really have eliminated AKc? i think we are beat after the cr, but i would still call the flop....and then the turn....and then the river.