08-01-2005, 01:00 PM
I made a little program to calculate how much I need to bet on the end if I hit my drawing hand on the river given the bet size on the turn.
For instance if the pot size is 120 and my opponent bets 90
with an obvious straight. If I have 10 outs to fill up, I have to bet 31% of the final pot or $77 on the river (and get called) to make calling break even.
In the program you enter the pot size, bet size and your number of outs. The output is the percentage of the final pot (and bet size) that you have to make on the river with your made hand that makes the call break even.
I'd like to add the number of scare cards that you have, the bet you would make if the scare card hits and the estimated probability that your opponent will fold.
Eventually I'd like to make a similar calculator for flop play but needless to say this is going to be alot more difficult.
I'm going to throw the math out there, then i'll put up the code. Through out this im assuming the potsize on the turn is 1. The bet size on the turn is x, a number between 0 and 1. y is also a number between 1 and 0. It is the fraction of the final pot that you will bet on the river if you make your hand. Your number of outs is O.
Your implied odds are 1+x+y(1+2x):x or (1+x+y(1+2x))/x:1
The odds of making your hand on the river(44 changes to 42 if you know he has a set etc.) is 44-O:O or 44/O-1:1. Substitute z for 44/O-1 and the odds of making your hand is z:1
In order for calling to be break even y>(xz-x-1 )/(2x+1).
For instance if the bet size is the pot(z=1) then
y=(z-2)/3. I'll let you think about that.
Here is the code. Its written in perl.
print "Press Control-C to quit.\n";
while (1) {
my ($potsize, $betsize, $outs) = '';
until ($potsize) {
print "Pot size: ";
$potsize = <STDIN>;
chomp $potsize;
}
until ($betsize) {
print "Bet size: ";
$betsize = <STDIN>;
chomp $betsize;
}
$betsize /= $potsize;
until ($outs) {
print "Outs: ";
$outs = <STDIN>;
chomp $outs;
}
my $result = ( $betsize * ( 44 - $outs ) / $outs - $betsize - 1) / ( 2 * $betsize + 1 );
print "Percentage of pot you must bet: " . int($result * 100). "%\n";
$result = int($result * ( 2 * $potsize + 1 ));
print "How much you must bet: \$$result\n\n";
}
Ideally id like to have people add to the program or point out problems that it might have.
Thanks.
For instance if the pot size is 120 and my opponent bets 90
with an obvious straight. If I have 10 outs to fill up, I have to bet 31% of the final pot or $77 on the river (and get called) to make calling break even.
In the program you enter the pot size, bet size and your number of outs. The output is the percentage of the final pot (and bet size) that you have to make on the river with your made hand that makes the call break even.
I'd like to add the number of scare cards that you have, the bet you would make if the scare card hits and the estimated probability that your opponent will fold.
Eventually I'd like to make a similar calculator for flop play but needless to say this is going to be alot more difficult.
I'm going to throw the math out there, then i'll put up the code. Through out this im assuming the potsize on the turn is 1. The bet size on the turn is x, a number between 0 and 1. y is also a number between 1 and 0. It is the fraction of the final pot that you will bet on the river if you make your hand. Your number of outs is O.
Your implied odds are 1+x+y(1+2x):x or (1+x+y(1+2x))/x:1
The odds of making your hand on the river(44 changes to 42 if you know he has a set etc.) is 44-O:O or 44/O-1:1. Substitute z for 44/O-1 and the odds of making your hand is z:1
In order for calling to be break even y>(xz-x-1 )/(2x+1).
For instance if the bet size is the pot(z=1) then
y=(z-2)/3. I'll let you think about that.
Here is the code. Its written in perl.
print "Press Control-C to quit.\n";
while (1) {
my ($potsize, $betsize, $outs) = '';
until ($potsize) {
print "Pot size: ";
$potsize = <STDIN>;
chomp $potsize;
}
until ($betsize) {
print "Bet size: ";
$betsize = <STDIN>;
chomp $betsize;
}
$betsize /= $potsize;
until ($outs) {
print "Outs: ";
$outs = <STDIN>;
chomp $outs;
}
my $result = ( $betsize * ( 44 - $outs ) / $outs - $betsize - 1) / ( 2 * $betsize + 1 );
print "Percentage of pot you must bet: " . int($result * 100). "%\n";
$result = int($result * ( 2 * $potsize + 1 ));
print "How much you must bet: \$$result\n\n";
}
Ideally id like to have people add to the program or point out problems that it might have.
Thanks.