brimstone1
08-01-2005, 12:54 PM
I've been on a losing streak for over 350 games, after playing +500 $11s and +150 $22s profitably. I'm just not convinced its sample size or variance. Please don't reply "lol variance sample size lol", I've read enough threads about them to understand the idea. This thread is asking you to review my strategy, and tell me whats going wrong, if anything.
Basically, I'm paging for citanul, curtains, irieguy, yugoslav, raptor, bluefeet, mcpherson (:p), 45suited, big limpin', tigerite, suitedsixes, durron597, and everyone else that gives reliable, legible advice, sorry if I forgot your names/nicks.
Here's what part of my profit graph looks like (it's actually worse).
[img=http://img204.imageshack.us/img204/3849/profitbar4hu.th.jpg] (http://img204.imageshack.us/my.php?image=profitbar4hu.jpg)
It doesn't stop.
So, after a failed attempt at forming a $11s study group, and failing to find a mentor, I've decided to share my strategy with the whole forum and see what you guys think of it. Funny, even after accepting that this isn't a winning strategy, I feel like I'm exposing a secret... just because I've been studying so hard and trying to fine-tune this strategy. Of course there will be situations where this doesn't apply at all, but for the most part, here are my general guidelines...
Just in case you didn't read what I just wrote: THIS IS NOT A WINNING STRATEGY, OR SO IT SEEMS.
Some general rules I try to abide:
<ul type="square"> If you raise PF, and get called by 2 or more people (probably low level blinds), don't waste chips with a contiuation bet if the flop didn't hit you. In other words, don't bluff/semi-bluff into +2 loose $11 players at a time (HoH concept).
Don't take races early in the game with AK, pairs other than AA, KK.
No fancy moves. If you don't desperately need the chips, don't pull PVSs, Stop'n Gos, bluffs, etc.
Never spite call. Turn off characters, chat, and be emotionless towards the players at your table.
Don't under/overestimate your opponent, don't think about them, just play your game.
If you take too many beats where you were a gigantic favorite back-to-back, just finish the set, and take a 5-10 minute break if you need to cool down.
Never play when drunk/tired/hungry/busy/sad/mad/etc.
Abide the 40% rule, the 10BB rule.
Never min-bet (unless level 6 and above, where you can pick up a lot of pots by minbetting on the flop, where the minbet is huge anyway.)
Don't limp after level 4. Either raise, push, or fold. Less flops seen, but more chips won.
[/list]
Level 1-3:
AA-KK: Randomly choose between pushing and raising 3-6xBB (but push more, you get called by amazing hands), push to re-raise, if just called, see the flop and act according to the number of callers. If you hit (set/overpair), bet the pot (or push) if the board texture is dangerous (flush/straight draw), and bet less if its benign (milk'em).
Note: Number of players in pot important, act more aggressive into less, and more passive into more players if you don't hit your hand (or get confusing action).
QQ-77: Limp from every position, always call min-raise, call 2xBB more (if someone made it 45 to go after you limped for 15) if the action closes on you. Call more with QQ, JJ - but nothing over 4xBB. Otherwise fold. Play for set/overpair value, just like AA, KK. If you hit (set/overpair), bet the pot (or push (especially with the smaller pairs (77-TT)) if the board texture is dangerous (flush/straight draw), and bet less if its benign (milk'em). When you hit your set, you will get called an amazing number of times when you push on the flop if the pot was raised PF.
Edit: Level 3, you can raise with QQ, JJ for value PF, try to pick the pot up right there and then.
AK, AKs: Limp from EP. Limp or raise from MP. Raise 3-4xBB from LP.
On the flop, from EP/MP, if you hit and there are a lot of players, check/raise it to the pot (the main pot+the raise). If there aren't many players, just come out firing.
From LP, come out firing unless there is a ridiculous amount of action infront of you (ex: UTG bet 1/2 the pot, MP2 called, MP3 raised), in which case you fold.
AQ-AJ: Fold unless its folded to you in the CO/button, make it 3xBB to go, if you get ridiculous action, drop it. Otherwise make small continuation bet on the flop when it hits/doesn't hit, and just take it right there. Don't risk anything else with these hands. Not worth it.
66-22: Fold unless you have 3 limpers in front of you, or you are certain to see a flop by limping (the table has been so passive, you thought it was a LHE table for a while). You can call a min-raise. Try to fold them UTG, UTG+1, MP1-2, etc. Don't raise with them. Drop them on the flop against any action (even min-bet) if you don't hit your set.
Level 4+: This is where it gets interesting. The blinds are 50/100, and most of the time you will have less than 10BB.
When folded to you in the SB, if you or your opponent have 5-7BB, push like the wind with any two.
Although its always +EV to push with 5-7BB at this point, don't push into over-aggressive loose bigstacks unless you hold AX/KX. They will call with everything too many times to make this move +EV. Always push into the mini-stack who has 2BB or such, the times you win (suckout or dominate), combined with the times he folds is enough to compensate for when he calls you and wins.
Don't open push from anywhere but the SB unless you have a hand you want called (AJs-AKs, AA-88), OR, the people left to act behind you have relatively "ok" stacks (similiar to yours (+/-150) when you have 8-10BB--then, you can push, they will fold unless they hold premium hands, and thats a chance you have to take) Players at the $11s will call with the most ridiculous hands, make sure you have them dominated, because FE is low when you push from anywhere other than SB, and gets lower as you move away.
Try not to push from UTG without an amazing holding unless you have absolutely no more chips left if the blinds hit you. KQ is not an appropriate hand to push into 5-6 people from UTG. A2o has you beat. Remember that.
On the button, say you have 1500 chips, SB and BB have 450, 560 and the blinds are 50/100. Push AX, KX, QX, all pairs. Mold this example into other situations at different blinds, its good stuff.
If you have a chip lead, say 2500+ and the people left behind you to act (3-4 people) are rather small stacks, say 500-700, etc. Nothing that will cripple you if you get called; push AX, pairs, KXs. Don't do this if there's a big-stack between them, you don't want to fcku around with him, not for now, at least.
This might *sound* conservative, but you will be pushing a lot of hands. The table will start complaining, spite calling you. So after a couple of these POOOSH situations in the SB, be careful, your opponent just lowered his calling standards to any face card and mid-kicker.
Now, start pushing any J, Q, K, A suited or offsuit, all pairs.
Hopefully, by the time he lowers his standards, you will have over 10BB and more than your opponent because you collected so many times, that you won't be desperate enough to push with 32o to pick up the blinds (desperate relative to your stack). Otherwise, don't look twice at your cards when you need the blinds. Just push.
SnGPT can vouch for me when I say "just push". It's +EV.
Although not working out for me, the pushes I make are +EV (over or equal to the minimum edge of 0.5%) about 85% of the time, I usually check the last couple of pushes (with SnGPT) I made when I bust. My very last pushes are almost always +EV.
On the bubble, if 1 UTG/EP limps, everyone folds, SB completes, you can push rather loosely from the BB with almost about anything and make both of them fold. Remember, make sure one of them isn't desperate. (sort of squeeze play)
Don't allow the SB to complete and see a flop when you have a bigger stack than him, come over the top with all aces, kings, queens, and pairs. If you have a smaller stack, theres a big chance he's trying to trap you, see a flop and act accordingly (this doesn't happen too many times since you'll be pushing so much, you'll see people folding their blinds to you in fear of you going all-in).
Congratulations. You are the table maniac, and the table hates you. Push everything you want called.
Key-word: OPEN-push.
When and if in the money, well, thats up to you. With this strategy, when you make the money, you'll either be the small stack, or the big stack. Which in return fits nicely with the whole idea of "gamble for 1st, settle for 3rd, don't play for 2nd" idea of getting more 1sts and 3rds, and less 2nds -- to put it in a very brute way.
I double-checked and proof-read this several times but I'm sure there are mistakes and some things I left out, I'll try to complete throughout the thread if I can.
Please let me know if you do something differently.
Basically, I'm paging for citanul, curtains, irieguy, yugoslav, raptor, bluefeet, mcpherson (:p), 45suited, big limpin', tigerite, suitedsixes, durron597, and everyone else that gives reliable, legible advice, sorry if I forgot your names/nicks.
Here's what part of my profit graph looks like (it's actually worse).
[img=http://img204.imageshack.us/img204/3849/profitbar4hu.th.jpg] (http://img204.imageshack.us/my.php?image=profitbar4hu.jpg)
It doesn't stop.
So, after a failed attempt at forming a $11s study group, and failing to find a mentor, I've decided to share my strategy with the whole forum and see what you guys think of it. Funny, even after accepting that this isn't a winning strategy, I feel like I'm exposing a secret... just because I've been studying so hard and trying to fine-tune this strategy. Of course there will be situations where this doesn't apply at all, but for the most part, here are my general guidelines...
Just in case you didn't read what I just wrote: THIS IS NOT A WINNING STRATEGY, OR SO IT SEEMS.
Some general rules I try to abide:
<ul type="square"> If you raise PF, and get called by 2 or more people (probably low level blinds), don't waste chips with a contiuation bet if the flop didn't hit you. In other words, don't bluff/semi-bluff into +2 loose $11 players at a time (HoH concept).
Don't take races early in the game with AK, pairs other than AA, KK.
No fancy moves. If you don't desperately need the chips, don't pull PVSs, Stop'n Gos, bluffs, etc.
Never spite call. Turn off characters, chat, and be emotionless towards the players at your table.
Don't under/overestimate your opponent, don't think about them, just play your game.
If you take too many beats where you were a gigantic favorite back-to-back, just finish the set, and take a 5-10 minute break if you need to cool down.
Never play when drunk/tired/hungry/busy/sad/mad/etc.
Abide the 40% rule, the 10BB rule.
Never min-bet (unless level 6 and above, where you can pick up a lot of pots by minbetting on the flop, where the minbet is huge anyway.)
Don't limp after level 4. Either raise, push, or fold. Less flops seen, but more chips won.
[/list]
Level 1-3:
AA-KK: Randomly choose between pushing and raising 3-6xBB (but push more, you get called by amazing hands), push to re-raise, if just called, see the flop and act according to the number of callers. If you hit (set/overpair), bet the pot (or push) if the board texture is dangerous (flush/straight draw), and bet less if its benign (milk'em).
Note: Number of players in pot important, act more aggressive into less, and more passive into more players if you don't hit your hand (or get confusing action).
QQ-77: Limp from every position, always call min-raise, call 2xBB more (if someone made it 45 to go after you limped for 15) if the action closes on you. Call more with QQ, JJ - but nothing over 4xBB. Otherwise fold. Play for set/overpair value, just like AA, KK. If you hit (set/overpair), bet the pot (or push (especially with the smaller pairs (77-TT)) if the board texture is dangerous (flush/straight draw), and bet less if its benign (milk'em). When you hit your set, you will get called an amazing number of times when you push on the flop if the pot was raised PF.
Edit: Level 3, you can raise with QQ, JJ for value PF, try to pick the pot up right there and then.
AK, AKs: Limp from EP. Limp or raise from MP. Raise 3-4xBB from LP.
On the flop, from EP/MP, if you hit and there are a lot of players, check/raise it to the pot (the main pot+the raise). If there aren't many players, just come out firing.
From LP, come out firing unless there is a ridiculous amount of action infront of you (ex: UTG bet 1/2 the pot, MP2 called, MP3 raised), in which case you fold.
AQ-AJ: Fold unless its folded to you in the CO/button, make it 3xBB to go, if you get ridiculous action, drop it. Otherwise make small continuation bet on the flop when it hits/doesn't hit, and just take it right there. Don't risk anything else with these hands. Not worth it.
66-22: Fold unless you have 3 limpers in front of you, or you are certain to see a flop by limping (the table has been so passive, you thought it was a LHE table for a while). You can call a min-raise. Try to fold them UTG, UTG+1, MP1-2, etc. Don't raise with them. Drop them on the flop against any action (even min-bet) if you don't hit your set.
Level 4+: This is where it gets interesting. The blinds are 50/100, and most of the time you will have less than 10BB.
When folded to you in the SB, if you or your opponent have 5-7BB, push like the wind with any two.
Although its always +EV to push with 5-7BB at this point, don't push into over-aggressive loose bigstacks unless you hold AX/KX. They will call with everything too many times to make this move +EV. Always push into the mini-stack who has 2BB or such, the times you win (suckout or dominate), combined with the times he folds is enough to compensate for when he calls you and wins.
Don't open push from anywhere but the SB unless you have a hand you want called (AJs-AKs, AA-88), OR, the people left to act behind you have relatively "ok" stacks (similiar to yours (+/-150) when you have 8-10BB--then, you can push, they will fold unless they hold premium hands, and thats a chance you have to take) Players at the $11s will call with the most ridiculous hands, make sure you have them dominated, because FE is low when you push from anywhere other than SB, and gets lower as you move away.
Try not to push from UTG without an amazing holding unless you have absolutely no more chips left if the blinds hit you. KQ is not an appropriate hand to push into 5-6 people from UTG. A2o has you beat. Remember that.
On the button, say you have 1500 chips, SB and BB have 450, 560 and the blinds are 50/100. Push AX, KX, QX, all pairs. Mold this example into other situations at different blinds, its good stuff.
If you have a chip lead, say 2500+ and the people left behind you to act (3-4 people) are rather small stacks, say 500-700, etc. Nothing that will cripple you if you get called; push AX, pairs, KXs. Don't do this if there's a big-stack between them, you don't want to fcku around with him, not for now, at least.
This might *sound* conservative, but you will be pushing a lot of hands. The table will start complaining, spite calling you. So after a couple of these POOOSH situations in the SB, be careful, your opponent just lowered his calling standards to any face card and mid-kicker.
Now, start pushing any J, Q, K, A suited or offsuit, all pairs.
Hopefully, by the time he lowers his standards, you will have over 10BB and more than your opponent because you collected so many times, that you won't be desperate enough to push with 32o to pick up the blinds (desperate relative to your stack). Otherwise, don't look twice at your cards when you need the blinds. Just push.
SnGPT can vouch for me when I say "just push". It's +EV.
Although not working out for me, the pushes I make are +EV (over or equal to the minimum edge of 0.5%) about 85% of the time, I usually check the last couple of pushes (with SnGPT) I made when I bust. My very last pushes are almost always +EV.
On the bubble, if 1 UTG/EP limps, everyone folds, SB completes, you can push rather loosely from the BB with almost about anything and make both of them fold. Remember, make sure one of them isn't desperate. (sort of squeeze play)
Don't allow the SB to complete and see a flop when you have a bigger stack than him, come over the top with all aces, kings, queens, and pairs. If you have a smaller stack, theres a big chance he's trying to trap you, see a flop and act accordingly (this doesn't happen too many times since you'll be pushing so much, you'll see people folding their blinds to you in fear of you going all-in).
Congratulations. You are the table maniac, and the table hates you. Push everything you want called.
Key-word: OPEN-push.
When and if in the money, well, thats up to you. With this strategy, when you make the money, you'll either be the small stack, or the big stack. Which in return fits nicely with the whole idea of "gamble for 1st, settle for 3rd, don't play for 2nd" idea of getting more 1sts and 3rds, and less 2nds -- to put it in a very brute way.
I double-checked and proof-read this several times but I'm sure there are mistakes and some things I left out, I'll try to complete throughout the thread if I can.
Please let me know if you do something differently.