The table says push but...

The small blind push table from 2+2 magazine (the June issue, I believe) says that pushing J2o from the small blind is profitable when the short stack has as many as 4 BB's, whether his calling range is top 75% or 100% of hands. The play didn't feel right to me, though, as he seemed pretty likely to double up and knock me back down into a rat race with the other medium stacks. Should I have just let him have the 300 chips?


#Game No : 2459861397
***** Hand History for Game 2459861397 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $10 Buy-in + $1 Entry Fee Trny:14448833 Level:6 Blinds(100/200) - Monday, August 01, 12:09:38 EDT 2005
Table Table 39796 (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 8: RiverOuter ( $2830 )
Seat 5: pokerlyffe ( $1120 )
Seat 6: wv2120 ( $1665 )
Seat 10: HERO ( $1775 )
Seat 1: lgbennett ( $610 )
Trny:14448833 Level:6
Blinds(100/200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ 2s Jd ]
pokerlyffe folds.
wv2120 folds.
RiverOuter folds.
HERO is all-In [1675]
lgbennett is all-In [410]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 4d, 4h, 6d ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 8s ]
** Dealing River ** [ 5c ]
HERO shows [ 2s, Jd ] a pair of fours.
lgbennett shows [ 3h, 3s ] two pairs, fours and threes.
HERO wins 1165 chips from side pot #1 with a pair of fours.
lgbennett wins 1220 chips from the main pot with two pairs, fours and threes.
Game #2459862914 starts.

[bluefeet]

well, he only has 2 more left here after posting. and a VERY small chance that he'll have an opportunity to be HU to the flop after this hand. if i'm BB, i'm calling/pushing 22+, A-anything, any two broadway, T9o+, or any suited connector >76s.

J2o just isn't worth doubling him up here for me. i wouldn't push with less than QTo i don't think.

[ QUOTE ]
well, he only has 2 more left here after posting. and a VERY small chance that he'll have an opportunity to be HU to the flop after this hand. if i'm BB, i'm calling/pushing 22+, A-anything, any two broadway, T9o+, or any suited connector >76s.

J2o just isn't worth doubling him up here for me. i wouldn't push with less than QTo i don't think.

[/ QUOTE ]

If those were his calling standards, I'd be happy to push J2. I think big blind needs to be much looser in this spot, calling almost any 2, and certainly any Qx, maybe even most Jx. My dilemma is that even if he's going to call any 2, it seems like a push with J2 is +EV, at least chip-wise. But should I make the push given my position at the table, where I can either fold and hold onto 3rd place or push and likely create a four-way race for 3rd?

[jgunnip]

I push J2o here for its high card value. At the 10+1 level the short stack is folding way too much in this situation for you too worry aobut doubling him up. If he calls and wins you still have just over 5BB, and with the big stack to your immediate right, that's not a horrible position to be in.

[curtains]

This is a clear push.

[tigerite]

I agree, I think actually the Villian should fold 33 here, it's close. 44 is a call, 33 is a fold, in my opinion (obviously, if he knows you have J2o, then no, but he can't know that)

[eastbay]

That table is garbage. It's pure chipEV. This is probably ok with 6+ players, but with 4-5 it's potentially very misleading.

eastbay

[curtains]

No Chip EV table is garbage if you have enough experience to make the proper adjustments in your head. I have a completely chip EV table that I've made, but okay I know when to mentally tweak the numbers due to bubble/5 handed considerations.

[curtains]

tigerite, the villian has just 400 chips left.....

[tigerite]

[ QUOTE ]

tigerite, the villian has just 400 chips left.....

[/ QUOTE ]

Oops, heh, I missed that.

Would anyone mind saying a bit more about how this table ought to be adjusted for bubble play? I feel like I have some intuitive sense of this, but maybe not (as it sounds like the consensus is that J2 is a push, and my little voice was telling me it wasn't a good idea). Is the general idea that I should be more conservative when shorter stacks are likely to bust soon and more aggressive when I've got chips to spare? (Of course I'll be more aggressive to the extent that others have tightened up on the bubble, but the table accounts for that by allowing you to choose the BB's calling range. Should I be even more aggressive beyond what is +ChipEV?)

Thanks for the feedback thus far, and for any more insight you can provide.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]

No Chip EV table is garbage

[/ QUOTE ]

It is for anyone posting "the table says push, is that right?"

eastbay

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

No Chip EV table is garbage

[/ QUOTE ]

It is for anyone posting "the table says push, is that right?"

eastbay

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, the title was "The table says push, but...." The 'but' is what I'm interested in- I'm asking about more than whether it is right. I recognize that the nature of the bubble makes Tournament EV not equivalent to Chip EV, and what I'm trying to do is get a better sense of how exactly it differs. Care to contribute something substantive?