JJ Flop Decision

[Nilbud]

I never know what to do in these situations. I'm probably behind here as UTG+1 will play any two cards, but rarely bets out unless he has something. I only count 3.5 outs with the BDFD getting 10:1, which wouldn't normally be enough, but do I go ahead and peel on off because I might have the best hand here?

I don't really have any read on SB, except that PT tells me he's tight/passive. MP3 is a LAG but he's much more loose than he is aggressive.

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (9 SB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, MP3 folds, Hero...

[Webster]

I would fold and move on tothe next hand. No need to bang your head against the wall.

At that level ANY Ace plays.

[DrunkHamster]

Usually, with your read on UTG+1, you are toast. From playing at this level, a donkbet like this is rarely a bluff. I would say that you are most likely behind at the moment. However, I think you have the implied odds to peel one off, getting 10-1. This is helped by the fact you have the J /images/graemlins/spade.gif, so any jack which comes doesn't complete a flush. Yeah, I call this and fold the turn UI.

[Nilbud]

I was a bit worried about the fact a Jack would coordinate the board a bit, devaluing my hand as far as implied odds.

[@bsolute_luck]

unless you think he's donkbetting a flush/straight draw, which based on reads i doubt, i'd fold.

even IF SB comes along, you're getting 11:1 and you need 13:1.

your Jack does look dangerous on this coordinated board, but i have to doubt 3-handed someone has KT.

[kapw7]

[ QUOTE ]
unless you think he's donkbetting a flush/straight draw, which based on reads i doubt, i'd fold.

even IF SB comes along, you're getting 11:1 and you need 13:1.

your Jack does look dangerous on this coordinated board, but i have to doubt 3-handed someone has KT.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you need 13:1 then it's an easy call b/c of implied odds. Unless you think that everyone will fold if a Jack falls on the turn.

However it's worse than 13:1 because you draw to the non-nut flush and also you'll have to pay 2 extra SB on the turn if a spade falls and not make your flush etc. And there are the inverse implied odds making a set and losing to a flush/straight.

So yes fold given the reads.

*** And I just noticed there is a Q on board as well so it's a super-fold

[MATT111]

It`s either fold or raise.
With 2 overcards+reads folding is probably better.

[jrz1972]

Either peeling or folding is fine. You're being offered 10:1 if SB folds, 11:1 if he comes along. With your ~4 outer, you really want 13:1 to call. If you back into a flush or straight, you won't get paid off much since the threat will be so obvious, but you can probably expect to grab those extra 2 sbs on the river which makes this pretty much break even.

[@bsolute_luck]

good post. you further explained why i didn't think it was worth a call.

[Nilbud]

Thanks, that makes sense. My gut was telling me I was beat but I was looking for a way to continue.

[Duerig]

I would fold.

What four outs are we talking about, as I see it the only outs he have the two last J's? Which will give him 2:47, or 1:23.5?

Or am I totally off track? :-) - It could be, busy at work, arf.

[jrz1972]

Jacks = 2 outs.
Backdoor flush draw = 1.5 outs.
2-gap backdoor straight draw = 0.5 outs.

=&gt; Total of 4 outs.

One could quibble with this, but it's a decent starting point.

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks, that makes sense. My gut was telling me I was beat but I was looking for a way to continue.

[/ QUOTE ]


Looking for a way to continue???? With a hand like this, and many others you should be looking fora reason to fold...
CDL

[Nilbud]

Thanks, very insightful.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
...UTG+1 will play any two cards, but rarely bets out unless he has something.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have a read. If you believe it's solid, fold. If not, raise to try and get SB out of your way.

FWIW, I think this is a fold against an unknown, so you should probably fold with any kind of read telling you to.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
...you should be looking fora reason to fold...
CDL

[/ QUOTE ]

Somebody's been reading Lee Jones...

[crownjules]

What about the back door straight? That's good for another 1.5 outs, giving you a total of 5. With that taken into account, you definitely have the pot odds to peel one off and see the turn. If you don't improve there, I would fold.

[POKhER]

Thats weak tight, LOOK FOR A REASON TO CALL but NEVER FOOL YOURSELF into thinking you have outs THAT YOU MAY NOT HAVE/DONT.

Just my opinion, But that short comment made me want to reply.

Nah, not weak tight, but JJ should be an easy fold here. So many people just like action, and want a reason to call or play out a hand that they know is dead or nearly dead. I dont like calls, I like raises therefore not weak tight. If Im in a hand, Im taking it down most of the time, and I play draws based on odds, but trying to set up knowing ur beat and gettting incorrect odds seems like a leak...
cdl

Yes, have read lee jones, no didnt like book.

backdoor str8?
At this beginning level, its not a great idea to start thinking about chasing backdoor str8s for an out. This out is so very remote, its easier for beginning players to leave the backdoor potential alone because it will tighten up their calls. He needs a jack, and that may even be a dirty out that nails someones str8...This hand is a clear fold, hes drawing to a backdoor str8 (very remote), and a dirty jack...
cdl
CDL

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
backdoor str8?
At this beginning level, its not a great idea to start thinking about chasing backdoor str8s for an out. This out is so very remote, its easier for beginning players to leave the backdoor potential alone because it will tighten up their calls. He needs a jack, and that may even be a dirty out that nails someones str8...This hand is a clear fold, hes drawing to a backdoor str8 (very remote), and a dirty jack...
cdl
CDL

[/ QUOTE ]

The level is irrelevant. It's worth consider all outs regardless of how remote as long as you don't overvalue them.

[Delzek15]

Easy... Call flop getting 9 to 1 and then fold the turn UI. Nothing to go crazy over.

[TomBrooks]

Fold.
Others explained why.

[silkyslim]

[ QUOTE ]
This is helped by the fact you have the J , so any jack which comes doesn't complete a flush. Yeah, I call this and fold the turn UI.



[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I was a bit worried about the fact a Jack would coordinate the board a bit, devaluing my hand as far as implied odds.

[/ QUOTE ]
Why are we dreaming about a jack coming? lol "jack coming"

I agree it should be considered but it shouldnt ever be a decsion making factor in a hand odds vs equity is almost never close enough to consider a backdoor draw. Yea it adds a little value but dont count on it. Basically I agree wioth what your saying but dont want it to be overvalued either and I think it was in aabove post...
cdl
cdl

[Nilbud]

OK, OK...I get it!! I'll never call a flop like that with jacks again!!!!

I promise promise!

:-)

[Eeegah]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree it should be considered but it shouldnt ever be a decsion making factor in a hand odds vs equity is almost never close enough to consider a backdoor draw. Yea it adds a little value but dont count on it. Basically I agree wioth what your saying but dont want it to be overvalued either and I think it was in aabove post...

[/ QUOTE ]

There's no difference between a backdoor draw and any other draw. We can caluclate the chance of it coming through just like every other draw, and we assign them about 1.5 outs. Note that this is the same as a single overcard and less than trying to spike a set or trips. It's a weak draw, sure, but we still count those outs even if we likely won't rely on them solely in our decision.

In this hand, we have both a backdoor straight and flush, and if we factor in our Jacks we have five pre-discount outs. Of course we do need to discount a bit, but I don't know if it's as drastic as you think it is. If UTG+1 is as straightforward as Hero thinks then I doubt he'd bet less than a made hand; in other words, he likely has an A or Q and our flush, straight or set would be good. SB could have nearly anything, and so a raise would likely fold him out, ensure we have almost a full five outs and perhaps buy us a cheap card on the turn.

Then again we're getting 9 to 1 here, and if we raise we're giving ourselves less. I think raising and folding are probably breakeven plays here.