Question About EV

When you have a draw, say a flush draw for example, and you're matching the pot odds with your odds of hitting the hand, and you're looking at the flop, is it the percent of hitting the draw on the turn, or by the river, including the turn.

Here's an example to help explain my question:

Say you have J/images/graemlins/heart.gif4/images/graemlins/heart.gif and the flop has 2 hearts. Now say there's 20 in the pot and like an 18 bet to you, making 38 in the pot. So your pot odds are 2.1 : 1. Now the odds of hitting this flush with 2 cards is about 2:1, so if the answer to my question is both cards, this would be a good call, but if it's just the turn then you need that 6 or 7 : 1 pot odds (which is it by the way?) because the chance of hitting it on only 1 card is slimmer.

[spaminator101]

once you add implied odd to the equation it becomes a good call

[AaronBrown]

With four hearts showing, there are 9 available for your flush. At the river, there are 46 cards you haven't seen, so your chance of hitting is 9/46 = 20%. At the turn, you have to compute the chance of missing the flush: (38/47)*(37/46) = 65%, so your chance of making it is 35%.

If you assume you win if and only if you hit the flush, and there is no further betting, then you need $34 in the pot to bet $18 at the turn, $74 to bet $18 at the river. If p is your chance of winning and B is the amount you must bet, B*(1-p)/p is the amount you need in the pot to break-even.

However, drawing hands are worth playing with less in the pot, made hands require more. Spaminator101 made the same point. If you hit the flush, you can bet more. How much this is worth to you depends on how your opponent plays.

In real situations, of course, you have to consider the chance you will win without the flush, and also the chance that you will lose with the flush.

[Mr. Curious]

[ QUOTE ]
once you add implied odd to the equation it becomes a good call

[/ QUOTE ]

This is true, provided that you will get paid off when the flush card comes. If you are playing against a super weak tightie, then they may fold on a scare card and kill your implied odds. This does open them to you putting on a play, but that isn't what you asked /images/graemlins/smile.gif