AK Hand - Let me have it

[McGahee]

Sorry, converter's screwed up:

Villian is a coldcalling, slowplaying, loose-passive fish.

I open raise A /images/graemlins/heart.gif K /images/graemlins/spade.gif from the SB, BB calls.

Flop is J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif J /images/graemlins/spade.gif T /images/graemlins/heart.gif
I bet he calls

Turn is 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif for JJT7 board
I check he bets, I call. If it were JJ97 I'd bet, but I don't want to get raised with my straight draw, cool?

River is 6 /images/graemlins/club.gif for JJT76.
I check he bets, I call.

WTF am I doing? In the micro forum I'm always telling people to fold rivers when everyone else is saying "call" and I think that's gotten into my head a bit and causing me to think I'm laying down winners, even though my low Won $ at Showdown % stats say otherwise.

This particular hand might be more interesting if my opponent were aggressive. Even then, do you think it's ever a bluff when they bet the turn AND the river? How much more likely do you think it's a bluff when they check behind on the turn?

[toby]

I picked up McGahee first in the fantasy football draft this afternoon--hope he racks up the points

[elena_elphie]

loose-passive players don't bet rivers if they can't beat A-high as a general rule. I think a bluff here is pretty unlikely, unless opp is not as loose-passive as you think.

turn chk is very opponent dependent. Some loose-passive players like to call the flop w/ almost anything and then fold the turn if they miss, others call down with any piece of the board/small pair/a-high. You have to know which type of passive player this is to decide whether to bet the turn or not.

turn call is borderline too, we are getting 4:1 and have 10 outs vs. small pair or Tx, 7 outs vs AT or KT, and 4 outs vs. a J (0 vs. JT/J7).
I imagine we average 7-8 outs or so, so the call is pretty close.

I think we can safely bet/fold the turn if we have some folding equity on the turn, since loose-passive isn't going to raise us w/o a Jack.

[McGahee]

I'm hoping I'll be seeing less than 10 defenders in the box this year with Bledsoe gone /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[McGahee]

[ QUOTE ]
loose-passive players don't bet rivers if they can't beat A-high as a general rule. I think a bluff here is pretty unlikely, unless opp is not as loose-passive as you think.

I think we can safely bet/fold the turn if we have some folding equity on the turn, since loose-passive isn't going to raise us w/o a Jack.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good points - that's why I said the hand would be more interesting if villian were aggressive (perhaps I should've just lied and said he was aggro for the sake of discussion /images/graemlins/grin.gif).
If he's aggressive, the turn check is good since he can raise with a T or PP, right? What would you do on the river in that case?

I guess against this guy, you're right - the turn is an easy bet/fold since all I have is a gutshot.

[wheeler]

It doesn't make sense to check-call the turn, assuming you need to to improve once he bets, and then call the river.

Kind of depends how passive he is though. If he's really passive (say an AF of about 0.5), I think check/calling the turn is fine. But you then have to fold the river. If he's not so incredibly passive (say AF about 1), I think maybe you need to bet the turn. If he raises, you have the odds to call, and you can probably check/fold the river. I don't think getting raised with your straight draw is such a bad thing, because a raise from a passive player tells you that you need to improve to win, so you can save a bet on the river.

[McGahee]

[ QUOTE ]

Kind of depends how passive he is though. If he's really passive (say an AF of about 0.5), I think check/calling the turn is fine. But you then have to fold the river. If he's not so incredibly passive (say AF about 1), I think maybe you need to bet the turn. If he raises, you have the odds to call, and you can probably check/fold the river. I don't think getting raised with your straight draw is such a bad thing, because a raise from a passive player tells you that you need to improve to win, so you can save a bet on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

This doesn't make much sense - I think you have it backwards.
If I get raised by a really passive player, I know he has trips and I'm drawing to a gutshot and I don't have the odds to call a raise. If I'm raised by a more aggressive player I can easily have 10 outs, so I'd prefer to check/call.
Against this particular player, bet/fold is probably the way to go on the turn.
Also, if I bet/call the turn and fold the river I'm not 'saving' any bets - it's still 2 BB's. That's not to say my river call didn't suck ass.

[pokerjunky]

Just remember that when a donk calls your flop bet it means he has two cards. If he calls the turn in this type of situation (ie. blind steal), it means he has at least king high or some type of draw. Either way, betting the turn is the correct play IMO no matter what type of opponent you are facing.

[McGahee]

You're probably right about that - when I'm OOP sometimes I probably take the "check with outs" concept too far and forget about folding equity.
I may also have a case of the MUBS because of this recent downswing I'm in.

[SmileyEH]

Bet the turn.

-SmileyEH

[oreogod]

Bet the turn...and if he will go to showdown with any two, I might even bet the river. Otherwise check the river.

Not only do u have overs, u have a gutshot as well.