Bleh... This is a fold right?

[The Don]

***** Hand History for Game 2456521526 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:14431258 Level:5 Blinds(75/150) - Sunday, July 31, 19:55:47 EDT 2005
Table Table 14950 (Real Money)
Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: SteakJones ( $124 )
Seat 4: boogerw69 ( $5005 )
Seat 8: DocOfDan ( $2051 )
Seat 9: Hero( $820 )
Trny:14431258 Level:5
Blinds(75/150)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Qd Qh ]
DocOfDan raises [800].

EDIT: Raiser is loose, the large but non allin raise makes me think his hand is weak... maybe a small PP.

Usually large raises means he dosetn want actoin = small PP. This is especially an all in cause you only have 820 chips!! auto push

[bluefeet]

"I too, like to live dangerously....."

http://www.grudge-match.com/Images/powers.gif

push it, double-up & then some.

[starvs]

folding QQ at low buyins is real questionable. Folding QQ with <10xBB to a loose raiser is horrible. Slide the bar and bet.

[The Don]

[ QUOTE ]
folding QQ at low buyins is real questionable. Folding QQ with <10xBB to a loose raiser is horrible. Slide the bar and bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you are missing the point. I know I have the best hand... it is just that there is a ridiculously short stack out there.

[mike28]

stab me

[ThePost]

With that short stack present it makes this a fold that has to be done. If he has an A or a K then it's a gamble i don't want to take untill that 4th place stack is out or bigger.

[mistaken]

Why not play for 1st? 800 isn't too little to be giving up on that opportunity.

Mistaken

[durron597]

If you fold here you're pretty much folding both of your blinds. If they go up again before you post you're basically guaranteeing yourself 3rd if not worse because the SB could win a showdown.

I would push here. JJ I would think about, TT I would fold.

[Matt R.]

If I'm reading the HH correctly, (somebody fix/update the converter!), the blinds will hit you again before the shortstack is forced all in. I think QQ is too good to fold vs. a loose raiser in this instance. This is a good spot to increase your chance for 1st and 2nd. I would push.

[mike28]

Shorty is all in next hand...

[durron597]

Shorty is SB. Hero is Button. So, no.

[Matt R.]

If you're sure, I guess I'm reading the HH wrong then. Because it looks to me like shorty will be button next hand if he folds.

If raiser is loose, take advantage of him. You're about to lose t225, and this is possibly the best hand you'll see on the bubble. Waiting for small stack to get knocked out is a bit too passive--go for double now. Push.

[mike28]

[ QUOTE ]
Shorty is SB. Hero is Button. So, no.

[/ QUOTE ]

I misread. My apologies.

[KramerTM]

[ QUOTE ]
If raiser is loose, take advantage of him. You're about to lose t225, and this is possibly the best hand you'll see on the bubble. Waiting for small stack to get knocked out is a bit too passive--go for double now. Push.

[/ QUOTE ]

[starvs]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
folding QQ at low buyins is real questionable. Folding QQ with <10xBB to a loose raiser is horrible. Slide the bar and bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you are missing the point. I know I have the best hand... it is just that there is a ridiculously short stack out there.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah my bad, I thought he has 1124. I thought something was a bit to easy about this. You have to fold this I think. Doubling up doesn't gaurentee anything better than third which you are almost gaurenteed now if you fold.

[ldavidjm]

I'd sigh and fold, shortie is far too short. Even if you know 100% you've got the 80-20 I still fold.

[Iconoclastic]

...math anyone?

Present equity calculation assuming the prize pool is $200:
8
84
64
45

Against a range of 22-AA, AKs-A2s, AKo-A8o, QQ is 70% to win, which leads to equity of

7
83
52
61

61*.7=42.7

42.7<45

Fold

------------------------------------------------------------

I also did the calculations with KK. It turns out the equity with calling with KK is only 45.75-- barely +EV

Of course, what I have for Villain's range may not be the same as everyone elses