Value betting, when do you stop, if ever?? [Archive]

View Full Version : Value betting, when do you stop, if ever??

07-31-2005, 06:16 PM

First post, hope it meets standards. Having a really bad downswing right now so I am rereading SSH and these forums. Figured I would post a specific example to see if I am playing correctly or leaving bets on the table.

Ok, my hand and questions have to do with value betting. I am trying to understand when to apply this concept and if you get reraised do you continue or when do you stop.

In this hand, to start with I would like to say I usually do not play 69s to a raise out of the BB, but with so many callers and only 1 bet with no risk of being raised I took a chance. I like my play on the flop that I do not reraise when it comes back around. This leaves the person to my left as the aggressor and allows me to raise the turn for a full round of bigger bets with more people in. I am not interested in eliminating people since I have a flush draw and a bd str8 draw. Then I picked up the OE str8 draw on the turn. So my question is the turn play, should I reraise for value when it comes back to me with 15 outs or call and see the river cheaper for 1 bet less?

EDIT: Sorry about the original post, problems with converter. As far as reads, only 4th hand on table. Table averages ~45% VPIP, ~3% pf raise. So very fishy.

Party Poker .5/1 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 raises, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button Calls, SB Calls, Hero Calls

Flop: (16 SB) A /images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif (8 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 raises, UTG+2 Calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls, Button folds, SB calls, Hero Calls.

Turn: (15 BB) 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif ">(7 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 bets, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, CO calls, SB calls, Hero raises, UTG+1 3-bets, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls, CO calls, SB calls, Hero??? (30 BB so far)

Should hero cap or just call to see the river?

shadow29

07-31-2005, 06:25 PM

wtf?

Online247

07-31-2005, 06:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
First post, hope it meets standards. Having a really bad downswing right now so I am rereading SSH and these forums. Figured I would post a specific example to see if I am playing correctly or leaving bets on the table.

Ok, my hand and questions have to do with value betting. I am trying to understand when to apply this concept and if you get reraised do you continue or when do you stop.

In this hand, to start with I would like to say I usually do not play 69s to a raise out of the BB, but with so many callers and only 1 bet with no risk of being raised I took a chance. I like my play on the flop that I do not reraise when it comes back around. This leaves the person to my left as the aggressor and allows me to raise the turn for a full round of bigger bets with more people in. I am not interested in eliminating people since I have a flush draw and a bd str8 draw. Then I picked up the OE str8 draw on the turn. So my question is the turn play, should I reraise for value when it comes back to me with 15 outs or call and see the river cheaper for 1 bet less?
 
 

Party Poker .5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) <a href="http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi" target="_blank">converter</a> Preflop: Hero is BB with 6<img src="/images/graemlins/diamond.gif" alt="" />, 9<img src="/images/graemlins/diamond.gif" alt="" />. UTG folds, UTG+1 raises, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button Calls, SB Calls, Hero Calls Flop: (16 SB) A<img src="/images/graemlins/heart.gif" alt="" />, 4<img src="/images/graemlins/diamond.gif" alt="" />, 5<img src="/images/graemlins/diamond.gif" alt="" /> (8 players) SB checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 raises, UTG+2 Calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls, Button folds, SB calls, Hero Calls. Turn: (15 BB) 7<img src="/images/graemlins/club.gif" alt="" /> (7 players) SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 bets, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, CO calls, SB calls, Hero raises, UTG+1 3-bets, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls, CO calls, SB calls, Hero??? (30 BB so far)

Should hero cap or just call to see the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

w/o reads I just call. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

Jaran

07-31-2005, 06:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
First post, hope it meets standards. Having a really bad downswing right now so I am rereading SSH and these forums. Figured I would post a specific example to see if I am playing correctly or leaving bets on the table.

Ok, my hand and questions have to do with value betting. I am trying to understand when to apply this concept and if you get reraised do you continue or when do you stop.

In this hand, to start with I would like to say I usually do not play 69s to a raise out of the BB, but with so many callers and only 1 bet with no risk of being raised I took a chance. I like my play on the flop that I do not reraise when it comes back around. This leaves the person to my left as the aggressor and allows me to raise the turn for a full round of bigger bets with more people in. I am not interested in eliminating people since I have a flush draw and a bd str8 draw. Then I picked up the OE str8 draw on the turn. So my question is the turn play, should I reraise for value when it comes back to me with 15 outs or call and see the river cheaper for 1 bet less?
 
 

Party Poker .5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) <a href="http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi" target="_blank">converter</a> Preflop: Hero is BB with 6<img src="/images/graemlins/diamond.gif" alt="" />, 9<img src="/images/graemlins/diamond.gif" alt="" />. UTG folds, UTG+1 raises, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button Calls, SB Calls, Hero Calls Flop: (16 SB) A<img src="/images/graemlins/heart.gif" alt="" />, 4<img src="/images/graemlins/diamond.gif" alt="" />, 5<img src="/images/graemlins/diamond.gif" alt="" /> (8 players) SB checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 raises, UTG+2 Calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls, Button folds, SB calls, Hero Calls. Turn: (15 BB) 7<img src="/images/graemlins/club.gif" alt="" /> (7 players) SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 bets, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, CO calls, SB calls, Hero raises, UTG+1 3-bets, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls, CO calls, SB calls, Hero??? (30 BB so far)

Should hero cap or just call to see the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

w/o reads I just call. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

nh

-Jaran

tiltaholic

07-31-2005, 06:35 PM

ok ok...

Hero is BB with 6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
folded to UTG+1 who raises. 5 coldcallers. SB calls. Hero calls.

Flop (8 people. 16 SB) A /images/graemlins/heart.gif 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

SB checks, Hero bets. UTG+1 raises. all call except button. Hero calls.

Turn (7 players, 15 BB) 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif

SB checks. Hero checks. UTG+1 bets. call, call fold, call call, Hero raises. UTG+1 reraises. fold, call, call, call, Hero????

tiltaholic

07-31-2005, 06:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
First post, hope it meets standards. Having a really bad downswing right now so I am rereading SSH and these forums. Figured I would post a specific example to see if I am playing correctly or leaving bets on the table.

Ok, my hand and questions have to do with value betting. I am trying to understand when to apply this concept and if you get reraised do you continue or when do you stop.

In this hand, to start with I would like to say I usually do not play 69s to a raise out of the BB, but with so many callers and only 1 bet with no risk of being raised I took a chance. I like my play on the flop that I do not reraise when it comes back around. This leaves the person to my left as the aggressor and allows me to raise the turn for a full round of bigger bets with more people in. I am not interested in eliminating people since I have a flush draw and a bd str8 draw. Then I picked up the OE str8 draw on the turn. So my question is the turn play, should I reraise for value when it comes back to me with 15 outs or call and see the river cheaper for 1 bet less?

EDIT: Sorry about the original post, problems with converter. As far as reads, only 4th hand on table. Table averages ~45% VPIP, ~3% pf raise. So very fishy.

Party Poker .5/1 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 raises, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button Calls, SB Calls, Hero Calls

Flop: (16 SB) A /images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif (8 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 raises, UTG+2 Calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls, Button folds, SB calls, Hero Calls.

Turn: (15 BB) 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif ">(7 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 bets, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, CO calls, SB calls, Hero raises, UTG+1 3-bets, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls, CO calls, SB calls, Hero??? (30 BB so far)

Should hero cap or just call to see the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

hello. welcome.

preflop is good.
don't bet the flop. but miraculously they all called.
i'd cap the turn. gambool!

cold_cash

07-31-2005, 06:48 PM

Check raise the flop.

3-bet the flop.

I would probably cap the turn w/ 5 opponents and ~10 outs.

I have a link somewhere to an Izmet web page that talks about value raising draws, and how many opponents you need with so many outs, etc.. It's good stuff. If I can find it I'll post it.

Play the river smartly if you hit your flush and the board pairs. Flush over flush wouldn't be too big a surprise here, eithr.

07-31-2005, 08:38 PM

cold_cash, please post that link if you can find it. I know it would be helpful for me and I am sure others.

I think my biggest problem is not capitalizing on my good draws. Really draw play in general, don't know at what pot/# of players to raise for value vs seeing more cards cheaply.

anybody care to explain what the cutoff point is.

xGoreDudex

07-31-2005, 08:56 PM

Now I'm no carpel'tunnel, but why did u cold call an earlyposition with 69s? a few callers, but I don't see pot odds in this...please someone correct me.

07-31-2005, 08:59 PM

I think pf is an easy call. It is not cold, I was BB so it was only 1 SB with no chance of a raise behind me. With 8 people in that is 16:1 pot odds.

Paxosmotic

07-31-2005, 08:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Now I'm no carpel'tunnel, but why did u cold call an earlyposition with 69s? a few callers, but I don't see pot odds in this...please someone correct me.

[/ QUOTE ]
Hero's getting 15:1 closing the action. I'd have to be holding tarot cards to fold preflop for 15:1.

@bsolute_luck

07-31-2005, 10:07 PM

i have no idea what you are doing in this hand.

preflop: standard.
flop: with the PRF to our immediate left, we did we bet out on this flop? c/r if anything.

turn: again i have no idea what is going on. you have no hand and your c/r here with a 9-high flush draw? sure it improve to a gutshot, but i still don't get it.

grjr

07-31-2005, 10:11 PM

I wouldn't cap the turn here with having the nut flush draw. With that many people sticking around this long I think you're really looking at an 8 that isn't a /images/graemlins/diamond.gif as your only sure chance of scooping the pot. There's a good chance there's a better flush draw out there and if a 3 hits you're only using one card so you might split that.

Oh, and anyone that doesn't call one more in the BB in this situation is nuts. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Angrymoog

07-31-2005, 10:21 PM

This pot is huge. Hero may have a draw, but correct me if I'm wrong, doesn't SSH tell us we never want to "keep people in the pot?" I don't mind the flop bet, because you then know that everyone will likely be faced calling 2 sb. The more individuals you can cause to fold the greater your equity.

cold_cash

07-31-2005, 10:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This pot is huge. Hero may have a draw, but correct me if I'm wrong, doesn't SSH tell us we never want to "keep people in the pot?" I don't mind the flop bet, because you then know that everyone will likely be faced calling 2 sb. The more individuals you can cause to fold the greater your equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're not winning on the flop, and you won't win unless you hit one of your draws. Why drive people out?

Also, you're quote from SSHE is incorrect. There are plenty of times when you want to keep people in the pot, and this is one of them.

Let's say we bet the flop and UTG+1 raises w/ a set of Aces or AK, (or hell, any hand better than 9 high), and isolates you. Now you're still drawing, but instead of getting 3 or 4 or even 5 to 1 on future bets you're getting even money. That's no fun.

Basically we're not looking for hand protection here, we're looking for lots of bets from lots of players.

The turn is tough, and grjr has some good points in his post.

Angrymoog

07-31-2005, 11:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This pot is huge. Hero may have a draw, but correct me if I'm wrong, doesn't SSH tell us we never want to "keep people in the pot?" I don't mind the flop bet, because you then know that everyone will likely be faced calling 2 sb. The more individuals you can cause to fold the greater your equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're not winning on the flop, and you won't win unless you hit one of your draws. Why drive people out?

Also, you're quote from SSHE is incorrect. There are plenty of times when you want to keep people in the pot, and this is one of them.

Let's say we bet the flop and UTG+1 raises w/ a set of Aces or AK, (or hell, any hand better than 9 high), and isolates you. Now you're still drawing, but instead of getting 3 or 4 or even 5 to 1 on future bets you're getting even money. That's no fun.

Basically we're not looking for hand protection here, we're looking for lots of bets from lots of players.

The turn is tough, and grjr has some good points in his post.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a 16 sb pot, I don't think you're going to be isolated by the raiser. Let's say you are though. the pot is now 10 BB on the turn. You can call down profitably as long as you can win 1 in 10 pots.

Additionally , forcing players to cold call 2 bets on the flop might just convince someone with a single high flush card to fold, whereas if you keep them in, they get a redraw if you make your flush on the turn.

But that's ok, I'm wrong here, you don't have anything to gain by knocking players out.

cold_cash

07-31-2005, 11:17 PM

Your point about the redraw is a good one, but I still don't want to be isolated with 9 high.

When I'm drawing to a big hand, and I KNOW that I'm drawing, I would like many opponents.

If the flop had come 9 high with a gut-shot, or I had flopped two-pair on a two-tone board, that's different.

cfjr2

07-31-2005, 11:28 PM

i believe there are 5 people calling beside you. You have to determine how often you will win (draw to your hand) and if it is not the Nut draw, how often will you win. In this case if you will win more than 1 in 6 it is a value bet.

Example if you determine you will win 1 in 5 times that means you bet 1 bb and they call for 5 bb you lose 4 times and win once - so you lose 4 bb and win 5 so it is a value bet.

That said I don't think you make your hand and win more than 1 in 6 here so call

Angrymoog

07-31-2005, 11:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Your point about the redraw is a good one, but I still don't want to be isolated with 9 high.

When I'm drawing to a big hand, and I KNOW that I'm drawing, I would like many opponents.

If the flop had come 9 high with a gut-shot, or I had flopped two-pair on a two-tone board, that's different.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've been thinking about it for a couple minutes and I suspect that in this example, the difference between betting and checkraising might be very marginal.

You figure a backdoor flush comes 23 to 1 odds against. so that means 1 in 24 pots when you checkraise and keep everyone in, you lose a whole pot. When you bet and get people to fold, you win smaller pots when you make your flush. It seems that you would lose a few bets, maybe 1 or 2 each round with option two, but you dont lose pot #24. It seems really close.

I also thought you might be able to get more bets in if you bet and are raised, becasue you can 3-bet. If you check raise, the pf raiser might only call.

All in all to be fair, I think theres a negligible difference between the two tactics, with neither of them being obviously the better value.

LoaferGee12

07-31-2005, 11:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Now I'm no carpel'tunnel, but why did u cold call an earlyposition with 69s? a few callers, but I don't see pot odds in this...please someone correct me.

[/ QUOTE ]
Hero's getting 15:1 closing the action. I'd have to be holding tarot cards to fold preflop for 15:1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Norman Chad, is that you?

07-31-2005, 11:56 PM

After thinking some more, and reading everybodies comments (thx), I believe that my flop bet was a mistake should have gone for the check/raise and call if reraised.

As far as the turn, when I got the additional outs of the Open-Ended str8 draw I figured I had enough pot equity to raise and hope that UTG+1 only calls then everybody else would follow. I agree I am in trouble of facing a higher 2 card flush if the river /images/graemlins/diamond.gif hits but for a bet that gets me an additional 5 I was willing to take that chance. Once UTG+1 3 bet i start to worry about a set thus fh draw so I just called and wanted to see the river even though if I stick to my theory of risking one bet with a decent chance of winning 5 I probably should have bet for value.

So if I were to replay, I would probably c/r/call the flop and still c/r the turn. Still not sure about capping I think the EV is break even, especially since there is no chance of UTG+1 making me pay 2.

macdaddy991

07-31-2005, 11:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Now I'm no carpel'tunnel, but why did u cold call an earlyposition with 69s? a few callers, but I don't see pot odds in this...please someone correct me.

[/ QUOTE ]
Hero's getting 15:1 closing the action. I'd have to be holding tarot cards to fold preflop for 15:1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Norman Chad, is that you?

[/ QUOTE ]

No what he just posted was clever /images/graemlins/ooo.gif

grjr

08-01-2005, 12:13 AM

[ QUOTE ]
After thinking some more, and reading everybodies comments (thx), I believe that my flop bet was a mistake should have gone for the check/raise and call if reraised.

As far as the turn, when I got the additional outs of the Open-Ended str8 draw I figured I had enough pot equity to raise and hope that UTG+1 only calls then everybody else would follow. I agree I am in trouble of facing a higher 2 card flush if the river /images/graemlins/diamond.gif hits but for a bet that gets me an additional 5 I was willing to take that chance. Once UTG+1 3 bet i start to worry about a set thus fh draw so I just called and wanted to see the river even though if I stick to my theory of risking one bet with a decent chance of winning 5 I probably should have bet for value.

So if I were to replay, I would probably c/r/call the flop and still c/r the turn. Still not sure about capping I think the EV is break even, especially since there is no chance of UTG+1 making me pay 2.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just for informational purposes, there was about an 18% chance that someone else was dealt two /images/graemlins/diamond.gifs in this hand with at least one higher than a 9. Most of the poker books tell you to disregard higher flushes because they "rarely" happen. Trouble is, when this many people are sticking around for this long and this many bets you have to wonder what they all have.

When I'm in this situation with a 9 high draw I'm thinking it's closer to a 40-50% chance someone is drawing at a higher flush. That may be weakish thinking but it keeps me from reraising the river if I bet and it gets raised.