From ZeeJustin's web site...steal into KJ8 board?

[rydazzle]

Reading the poker articles, specifically "inside my tournament game" on www.zeejustin.com (http://www.zeejustin.com), I came across this:

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During 75/150 blinds, a player 4 off the button opened for 450. He had a stack of 5500. I called on the button with 99 and a stack of 5k. The flop came KJ8. He checked. Very few players will check this flop with a hand that hit the flop. It is very likely that he has a pocket pair lower than jacks, or AQ. I bet 700 on the flop. The fact that I had 99 here is irrelevant. I will make this play with any two cards. This is a very standard hand. Basically, when someone raises preflop and checks a flop like this, it is usually because they missed and are afraid the flop hit you. My read was correct and he folded.


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I am wondering what makes this texture plus the check a likely sign of weakness? Villians range of raising hands from MP is large: PPs to ~77, AT, KJ. Can someone elaborate on the range villian puts us on such that a check is his best play? If I am in villian's spot I see the call PF as mid PPs most likely...fear the set of 8's or KQ but not enough to make a continuation bet. Unless we are seen as LAG KJ, QJ is unlikely especially at this buy-in? I need a lesson...plug the leak.

R

[Sponger15SB]

ZJ's blog entry = -EV

[rydazzle]

I take it this is the concensus?

[The Don]

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I take it this is the concensus?

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No this is a good play... ZJ had his opponent on a weak hand and bet to push him off. As he said... the fact that he had 99 was irrelevant.

[Sponger15SB]

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I take it this is the concensus?

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I'm talking about the actual blog entry, not the play itself.

[curtains]

Personally I don't think that revealing a few thought processes that you go through while you play is particularly -EV at all.

Everyone, or at least ZeeJustin, who does so has control over what they get out to the public and they probably understand what things they think are okay to let people know about and what ideas aren't.

[citanul]

curtains,

i believe sponger was saying that reading the entry is -ev in general, not that posting it was.

citanul

[PrayingMantis]

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I am wondering what makes this texture plus the check a likely sign of weakness? Villians range of raising hands from MP is large: PPs to ~77, AT, KJ. Can someone elaborate on the range villian puts us on such that a check is his best play? If I am in villian's spot I see the call PF as mid PPs most likely...fear the set of 8's or KQ but not enough to make a continuation bet. Unless we are seen as LAG KJ, QJ is unlikely especially at this buy-in? I need a lesson...plug the leak.

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I think you are over-complicating it. Villain raised PF, and now he checks. Checking = not betting. Unless he is trapping here, he is simply weak (even if he IS trapping, he is trying to represent weakness by checking). This is common-sense, it's not some deep poker wisdom. When someone shows weakness, there's a good enough chance you can take the pot from him, that's all. The specific texture of the flop might help you decide if there's a good enough chance he missed it, so you have some more reasons to believe you can try and make a move for the pot.

[curtains]

Weird....okay I thought that at first but changed my mind after his last response.

[rydazzle]

I dont think I asked my question well as folks are missing the point. My question is in general about PFRers checking a KJ8 board HU showing weakness...why is KJ8 scary to the missing PFRer and not to the stealer? i.e. if I missed with KJ8 flop, I'd cont bet b/c of the K. If checked to me I'd think trap...I want to know if this is a leak.

[Sponger15SB]

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curtains,

i believe sponger was saying that reading the entry is -ev in general, not that posting it was.

citanul

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huh? ok can I just clarify...

I think its -EV for justin to be posting about a bluff that he makes with nothing. He is basically now setting himself up for possible traps by everyone that reads his blog. Which I'm guessing a few people do who regularly play against him.

[citanul]

Praying,

Harrington touches on this idea though also, and I'm wondering what you think:

He says that the more aggressive the opponent is, the more wary you should be about their check on the flop here. Basically, an aggressive opponent is betting everything, and well, your 99 might even be worth a value raise here, but a predictable weak tighty guy, you should probably be less wary of their check because they are checking flops they miss.

Clearly both people have the ability to mix it up (although sometimes not, sometimes in their super aggressiveness or their weak-tightishness, they become so predictable they don't even mix up their style) but these factors seem to overwhelm the others.

citanul

[rydazzle]

yikes. you must think Im an idiot...I am well aware of everything you said.

my question is about KJ8 texture specifically and why it has a characteristic ZJ alludes to.

[rydazzle]

It is from this text exactly that I draw my waryness from a check on KJ8. An agressive player should cont bet here IMO.

[raptor517]

this IS a standard play. most of you prolly dont play mtts that much, but to win them, you have to pick up pots like this. very standard mtt play imo. in sngs i dont get too fancy though.. holla

[PrayingMantis]

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huh? ok can I just clarify...


I think its -EV for justin to be posting about a bluff that he makes with nothing. He is basically now setting himself up for possible traps by everyone that reads his blog. Which I'm guessing a few people do who regularly play against him.

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Come on. This is not different than any player who has a reputation of being aggressive. What would you expect will happen? people will start CHECKING to him more? That's the best thing that can heppen to a player.

I think you are way overestimating how -EV it is for ZJ to post these thoughts. Most of them are simply good solid poker thinking, not some extremely valueable secrets about how he thinks and acts in every situation. You can be sure ZJ still keeps a lot to himself, as any good poker player should do.

[citanul]

ry,

Praying answered your question pretty well.

Basically a flop like that most people who hit are going to bet. Why? Because amongst other things, you'll get action from lots of 2nd best hands on that kind of board, it's got 2 face cards = draw heavy, you raised preflop = you should bet again usually if you've got anything at all, etc.

I think also that your number of hands you're putting a tricky opponent on as villain here post flop as a predictable hero is too tight. I'm guessing that against the right opponent, Z's going to play lots more hands than that.

But the dominant factor here is that Z's not trying to push the guy off a better hand, so it's not all that important what his opponent puts him on after his call and then bet. He's pretty sure his 99 is the best hand. So he's value betting.

Them's the breaks of being too predictable.

citanul

[rydazzle]

u dont see any warning lights here to bet 1/2 pot instead of 2/3? Would a competant player who checked this board knowing that the follow-up move from ZJ was so standard check here? I guess I am missing why KJ8 is scary to PFR...

[rydazzle]

excellent, this is the content I was looking for...thx

[citanul]

ry,

he didn't say that his opponent is aggressive did he? he just said the guy opened. if his opponent was very aggressive i'm going to guess the likelihood he repops this preflop goes way up. my guess is that the reason z called this bet preflop is a) he'd love to hit a set and win a big pot b) he's comfortable playing post flop against this opponent.

where comfortable means "i'll know real quick if my 99 is best post flop, so i don't need a set to win the hand."

citanul

[citanul]

ry,

his bet was closer to 1/2 the pot than 2/3 of it.

i think that as has been said in other posts here that people are waaaaay overestimating the effect that will be had on z's profits by people who are initially unfamiliar with his game trying to "play at him due to his postings." i think anyone who's already a regular with z knows what type of player he is (good), and that anyone who isn't and thinks that they are going to take an edge off him using his posts is probably not good.

z's going to be changing up his style as he moves through any tournament, probably not so much as to make this standardish move become not the play he makes at any point, because well, them's free chips if he's in the hand because he knows how to play against the opponent.

but well, a thinking opponent is going to mix up how he plays the hand against z as well, so yes, he's going to get checkraised sometimes here and have to throw away his hand. hell, he might even get bluff checkraised here sometimes and have to throw away his hand! amazing! other people get to make plays besides the hero sometimes. and yes, they mix it up too!

sigh.

citanul

[PrayingMantis]

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He says that the more aggressive the opponent is, the more wary you should be about their check on the flop here.

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Yes, clearly, you are always looking for a DIFFERENCE in a behaviour. An aggressive player who suddenly checks should make you feel uncomfortable in a sense.

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but a predictable weak tighty guy, you should probably be less wary of their check because they are checking flops they miss.

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ZJ probably had enough of a read to realize that a check in this situation by that opponent wasn't a bad sign. Most avarage players will tend to check a missed flop in such a spot.

I don't think this particular spot is actually very interesting. It looks like a routine play. It would have been different had villain bet into ZJ, and if ZJ saw him as an aggressive opponent. These are toughish spots where you have to decide whether your made hand is good enough, and what should you do with it (call down, raise, fold etc). It also depends of course on the calling tendencies of your opponent. Are they able to lay down a marginal hand if YOU represent a better hand (even if you don't have it)? Of course, it has much to do with their perception of your play .

Most of it has more to do with MTTs than with SNGs, unless you're playing more against regulrs in higher levels.

[curtains]

Im going to start posting blogs of how I bet 100% of time when checked to me, that way maybe everyone will check all their made hands against me all the time /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[PrayingMantis]

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i'm going to start posting blogs of how I bet 100% of time when checked to me, that way maybe everyone will check all their made hands against me all the time /images/graemlins/smile.gif

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I think you better say you bet 90-95% of the time... It will work the same, but will look more credible /images/graemlins/smile.gif