Another extraction question

[JihadOnTheRiver]

I'm sorry if I'm posting too many winning hands. Don't take these as brag posts, its just that my large LHE experience has taught me "extraction" involves, for the most part, betting the sh.it out of your hands. So when I hit like this, and that other quads hand, i don't always know how to come along. My question with this one, as with the other one, is how much on the river? My read of this guy, by the river, is that he has a flush as well. I doubt he'll pay off his entire stack, and I know he's not a donk if that makes any difference.

[converter is psycho, so I'm gonna add some stuff...]

I have $166 (just cracked aces /images/graemlins/smile.gif )
Villain has $160

Party Poker (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, CO checks, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB checks.
Somewhere in there, I called, villain is on the CO, there are 5 to the flop...

Flop: 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
I bet pot, $5, villain calls...

Turn: 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
I bet $10, villain calls.

River: 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
I bet $15, villain raises to $30...I raise to...

EDIT: I don't have PT, but I do pay attention, and like I said I'm newish so I'm only on one table. By the river, I am VERY confident that he has been lying with a flush. My thinking is that because he never once popped it, its probably not very high and hes just waiting to see no scare cards. That affected my decision for a # on the river greatly. Thanks...

[gulebjorn]

I'd make it $90. At least.

[swolfe]

all-in

[JihadOnTheRiver]

[ QUOTE ]
all-in

[/ QUOTE ]
no. mistake. validate. your. response. with. more. than. one. word. clown.

[swolfe]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
all-in

[/ QUOTE ]
no. mistake. validate. your. response. with. more. than. one. word. clown.

[/ QUOTE ]

if he's going to call any raise, he's going to call an all-in. he'll fold to a minraise if he's going to fold. an all-in isn't much of an overbet of the pot and gets you max value when he's going to call.

[deadmoney98]

I think I would make it 80-100, seems like that would make it tough for him to lay down a smaller flush, and he might even pay you off with a straight, since your line looks a little bit like a bare A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif that missed. I probably make it 100, basically because he either has it or he doesn't. He cannot call any raise if he doesn't, and he will not be looking to fold if he does. Sorry if that is vague, but I never manage to have the nuts on the river.

EDIT: I think what I was trying to say is that a push is probably the only bet that makes a smaller flush even contemplate folding. So if you made a reasonable raise, and he folded, don't be too upset since he probably had a mediocre hand.

[Malachii]

Considering that swolfe is probably one of the 5 best posters on the SSNL forum, I'd wouldn't be calling him a clown if you want him to continue to post on your threads.

As for the hand in question: Anytime you have a lock hand, bet the river, and an opponent raises you, I think pushing is almost invariably the correct response.

Wait a minute. If you push here, aren't you basically telling him you have the nuts? Isn't this the only bet that let's him lay down his hand and pat himself on the back for making a genius read?

I'm pretty new, and much less experienced than some of the other posters that are saying to push, but I would just go to 90 or so.

I also had the thought: "Is there some way to get HIM to push?" Is there some dirty, under-handed min-raise thing that would get him to come back over the top? Some raise that was so small that it looked like you were unsure of your hand?

Would love to hear some comments on this second line. The best argument I can come up with against it is you are sacrificing value, that he knows he doesn't have the nuts and any sensible player just calls such a sneaky raise. This is a good argument, I think, which is why I say 90 or so, but is there a case or a similar situation in which showing weakness might be correct?

[swolfe]

[ QUOTE ]
Wait a minute. If you push here, aren't you basically telling him you have the nuts? Isn't this the only bet that let's him lay down his hand and pat himself on the back for making a genius read?

[/ QUOTE ]

any 3rd bet here announces to a good player that you have the nuts. it basically makes the question whether or not he believes you.

[ZootMurph]

I'd call up to $80 with a non-flush draw. Depending on my read of Hero, I might call an allin. If you haven't done any bluffing in a while, I'd probably fold to any decent sized reraise on the river.

Consider villain's point of view... I raised the river. Either I have the flush or I'm bluffing. If you reraise, you either have the nut flush or are bluffing. If I don't think you are bluffing, or I was bluffing, I fold. If I have a flush and you make a small reraise, I'm willing to call with a K or Q high flush, thinking you may have a weaker flush since you didn't push. J or 10 high is iffy. Anything smaller can't call any decent sized reraise unless villain thinks hero is bluffing. So, Villain's read on Hero is key to how much to reraise here.