Seeing and Ace fall would be bad, but is two a good thing.

[Carmine]

Villian is loose and will chase and CD a med. PP. Read is only from a few orbits at the table. So not real strong.

Converter not working right will have to fill in. Anyone else having this problem? HH is from PT.

Party Poker (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="red">Hero raises </font>, folded to MP1 who CC, folded to button who CC, 2 folds.

Flop:7.5SB 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero bets, MP1 calls, button folds.

My plan for the turn and river is to bet/fold UI. Everyone agree?


Turn: 4.75BB A/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero bets, MP1 calls.

The turn is good for me, so I improved or have I. I know he will(often) slowplay a weak ace here and at the same time will CD a PP thinking I don't have an ace. What are you thinking and what's your plan?


River 6.75BB: 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero....

[W. Deranged]

Bets.

Classic.

The second A falling is good for you, if for no other reason than it allows you to value bet this river with greater confidence. And anything that allows you to extract more value is good for you.

You probably should fold to a river raise here, unless you have a read that villain is tricky. I think you'll usually hear from an A earlier than the river, though. I'd expect villain either to fold or call and show a J.

[o0mr_bill0o]

I think the real question is whether he's likely to bet the river. If he's likely to bet a worse hand on the river, check-call is the way to go. Otherwise I think bet/fold is probably good. I see a lot of people who wait till the river to raise solid holdings. It seems like he's a loose/passive player, so I think the latter option is probably the best.

[W. Deranged]

I think the only situation where checking this river would ever be correct is when villain is a notorious river bluffer. I think there are very few who would bet a J here on the river for value. Since folding to a river raise here is pretty easy I think it is quite clear that bet-folding this river is the right line against standard players. The majority of the time here villain will be in one of the following situations:

1. Has a weaker holding than villain's which he'll call the river with, the obvious candidate being a hand like KJ.

2. Has a missed draw, and will fold the river/check-behind if you check.

3. Has a slowplayed and/or weak ace, in which case you'll get raised. But bet-folding costs you exactly as much as check-calling in this situation and it's not likely you'll be raised by anything you beat.

[Knoler]

On the turn I think this has helped my hand and I bet. On the river I bet 100% of the time against a loose passive player who CCs with a wide variety of hands.

Against a better, more aggressive player I'm inclined to check / call in order to induce a bluff. It's hard to see what he would call a river bet with that we beat, except, maybe a pair of jacks. (Calls on flop to peel one off to two pair or trips. Calls on turn because he doesn't believe we have an Ace now that two are out.)

-Brian

[o0mr_bill0o]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the only situation where checking this river would ever be correct is when villain is a notorious river bluffer. I think there are very few who would bet a J here on the river for value. Since folding to a river raise here is pretty easy I think it is quite clear that bet-folding this river is the right line against standard players. The majority of the time here villain will be in one of the following situations:

1. Has a weaker holding than villain's which he'll call the river with, the obvious candidate being a hand like KJ.

2. Has a missed draw, and will fold the river/check-behind if you check.

3. Has a slowplayed and/or weak ace, in which case you'll get raised. But bet-folding costs you exactly as much as check-calling in this situation and it's not likely you'll be raised by anything you beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think you're 100% correct. I'm not sure what limit he was playing, but i've been seeing a significant number of players at 3/6 who will bluff the river very frequently. not the majority, but enough that it should certainly be a consideration.

[Carmine]

I agree with Deranged also. I was just unsure if a poor player might ever raise the river not as a bluff, but thinking that his 99 is good. I'm also curious how/if this would change as we go up in limits. Would a good, thinking villian, in a 10/20 (not that we can't have good, thinking villians in SS) and up game bluff-raise this river. Which would then change this to check-call? bet/call?

A little later I'm going to post this in mid-high and see how much things change.

[brettbrettr]

Bet this. Then ask yourself whether or not villan will bluff the river here, then decide whether to call or fold to a raise.