Another important hand from 11R

[ZBTHorton]

This is with 23 or so left. I think this might be the worst hand I played in the entire tournament, but I seriously didn't have a clue what to do with it. Just tell me how BAD IS THIS?

PokerStars Game #2228353593: Tournament #10400796, Hold'em No Limit - Level XIX (15000/30000) - 2005/07/31 - 03:21:18 (ET)
Table '10400796 162' Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: geeah (318392 in chips)
Seat 3: krex (843664 in chips)
Seat 4: Accordion (204889 in chips)
Seat 6: ZBTHorton1 (434087 in chips)
Seat 7: bail3yz (314946 in chips)
Seat 8: spankdeazz (1208779 in chips)
Seat 9: Pao26 (396065 in chips)
geeah: posts the ante 1500
krex: posts the ante 1500
Accordion: posts the ante 1500
ZBTHorton1: posts the ante 1500
bail3yz: posts the ante 1500
spankdeazz: posts the ante 1500
Pao26: posts the ante 1500
Accordion: posts small blind 15000
ZBTHorton1: posts big blind 30000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ZBTHorton1 [Ks 7s]
bail3yz: folds
spankdeazz: calls 30000
Pao26: calls 30000
geeah: folds
krex: calls 30000
Accordion: folds
ZBTHorton1: checks
*** FLOP *** [Kd Qs 6s]
ZBTHorton1: checks
spankdeazz: bets 90000
Pao26: raises 274565 to 364565 and is all-in
krex: folds
ZBTHorton1: folds
spankdeazz: folds
Pao26 collected 325500 from pot
Pao26: doesn't show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 325500 | Rake 0
Board [Kd Qs 6s]
Seat 1: geeah folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: krex (button) folded on the Flop
Seat 4: Accordion (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: ZBTHorton1 (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 7: bail3yz folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: spankdeazz folded on the Flop
Seat 9: Pao26 collected (325500)

[lastchance]

Second nut flush draw, 3 good 7's, 2 K's, and Top pair!!!

Call the all-in... Too many outs.

[ActionJeff]

You have a really good hand on a coordinated board. Lead out with a bet, and plan to go all the way with the hand. These are the situation that determine the winners of the tournament.

[kasey2004]

NEVER am i getting off this hand... just a quick note on some hands u could be up against.

KJ u are 52% to win
Ax of spades u are 61% to win
66 u are still 31% to win
Qx u are around 82% to win
KQ still 38% to win
JTs 79% to win

Just popped a couple examples into pokerstove. not sure what other hands he could have limped with but i think u are in good shape with a big pot and even some dead money i think u MUST go with this hand.

/images/graemlins/spade.gif Kasey /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[Chief911]

ZB,

Had you played with PAO very long at this point? His standard line was to do a lot of limping, and fire wa bet into any pot to try to take it down. You very likely were ahead, and even if you were not its reasonable to think you had 12 outs.

ActionJeff said it best. lead out and be ready to call an allin here. This is a great example of what happens when you let someone else take conrol of a hand. =/

Nick

[niin]

Yeah, lead the flop, then push/call anyone who raises. You probably had the best hand already, and had redraws to the likely best hand if not.

[ QUOTE ]
Just tell me how BAD IS THIS?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm actually a bit stunned at all the replies that this was a bad fold and that you should have pushed.

What are the possible hands that your opponents could be holding? What is the possible worst case scenario for you? Here's a distinct possibility given the calls and raises:

Spank has a weak suited Ace, something like As 4s
Pao has pocket sixes.

Running this through 2dimes with the board flop that you indicated, unsurprisingly reveals the following probability of win:
ZB: appx 2%
Spank: appx 24%
Pao: appx 74.5%

In other words, if this were the case, you would be almost drawing dead.

It's even worse if Pao has something like KQo or KQs, although he probably would have raised preflop with the latter.

Most likely the only way you have a higher chance to win is if Spank is playing suited undercards, like JsTs.

Is your fold looking that bad under these circumstances?

yeah it's a good fold if you assume someone has a higher k and the nut flush draw? How the hell do you assume that?

[ZBTHorton]

Okay, here is my reasoning for the way I played it at the time. As I said before, I'm about 90% sure I botched this hand, but none the less.

About 20 minutes before this, I flopped top pair, 2nd nut flush draw on another player. I checked, he pushed, I called. Hit my flush and we all moved on. With the aggression that was going on at both points in the tournament, I don't mind the check on the flop, because I KNEW he would push.

When the first players bets, I am ready to push over the top. But the second player(who I had no read on...whatsoever) makes me think I'm behind a bigger king.

I really was getting odds to call this though. I know I botched this. :-\

[ QUOTE ]
How the hell do you assume that?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, think about it. Walk through the hand.

10.5K antes
Spank EP limps for 30K
Pao EP overcall limp for another 30K

Right away I gotta be thinking, what hands to they have that are good enough to try to limp and see a cheap flop, but not good enough to raise with? Hmmmmm, Axs and middle pairs come to mind. Or perhaps a slowplay?

Then the button overcall limps making the preflop pot about 130K.

After the flop, Spank bets 90K, about 2/3 of the pot but only about 8% of his overall stack. He probably has a piece of the flop, but this smells an awful lot like a semi-bluff. Could he have something like KhJh or JsTs?

The pot is now 220K.

But then Pao goes right over the type all in. He obviously doesn't care that someone has top pair. He is either semi-bluff raising with the nut flush draw, or has top pair easily covered and is betting big to protect against a potential flush draw. As9s, KQo, and 66 are hands that come to mind. Pao could be stone bluffing, but how many players limp from EP without an Ace, bigger painted cards or a middle pair?

The pot is now 585K.

The flop obviously misses the button and he gets out of the way, which brings us to ZB in the blind and getting about 1.8:1 from the pot.

ZB wasn't comfortable with betting out with top pair, weak kicker and 4-flush. But now it's supposed to be an obvious push all in call, even though he is probably outkicked by the original caller and possibly drawing dead or from way behind a set of sixes?

What are the possible ranges or possibilities of hands that Spank and Pao could be holding, that could possibly come close to giving ZB better than 1.8:1 odds of taking down the pot head-up (or worse in a 3-way if Spank overcalls). If Spank were to overcall, then I'd have to believe that ZB's hand is very close to DOA.

Maybe I'm way off, but I can't think of a single one.

Good fold ZB, IMHO.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
lead out and be ready to call an allin here.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Chief911]

The ONLY way this is a good fold, is based on your fear of spank, not the bet by PAO. He would limp with anything, and would bet out and raise with anything. That was his style. He could have any two here.

Nick

[bruce]

Before I respond what was the first place prize? thx

Bruce

[bruce]

I like to bet the flop and play accordingly. Given you checked and there is a bet and all in your only play is to
fold. I would assume at least one player has a King and if
I call I don't know how the initial better will respond.

If you bet you are probably going to be faced with the same
problem. The initial better may not call, but I would think
the pusher will still push. Now you have an easier decision
to make with only one player. Does he have a better hand than me or is he on a draw? I then might be inclined to call because if he does have a better hand I can make a flush or two pair. This of course assumes he doesn't have
KQ or a set. If you're lucky he may have JT. This is not
an automatic call, but I wouldn't routinely fold it.

Bruce

[ZBTHorton]

[ QUOTE ]
Before I respond what was the first place prize? thx

Bruce

[/ QUOTE ]

12K