Kings vs. a Donk

[durron597]

I don't care what this person has, this move is donkish. Second hand thus no read.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

CO (t1500)
Button (t1420)
SB (t1480)
BB (t1600)
UTG (t1500)
UTG+1 (t1500)
Hero (t1500)
MP2 (t1500)
MP3 (t1500)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls t20, UTG+1 calls t20, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t120</font>, <font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, UTG calls t100, UTG+1 folds.

Flop: (t290) A/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets t1380 (All-In)</font>, Hero....

[HighestCard]

I see villian on one of three hands,
40% 2 clubs
40% pocket aces
10% ace x

Im assuming this was a 22 or lower...

I might have to make a call in this situation because if the villian does get his flush, you have the nut flush draw.
Somebody flame me on this though.

[Bigdaddydvo]

Yeah, it's a donk bet, but given how early it is, there's too good of a chance he's telling the truth. Hero folds.

[bluefeet]

Ax is as likely as 2 clubs. but the open-push on the flop? smells more like a flush draw than an ace...assuming he's giving you ANY credit for the ace. playing w/ t1500, i MIGHT be able to fold and walk away. i wouldn't hate a call though.

[lastchance]

I give people credit for Ax. I fold. Plus, a flush draw still has outs, against Ax, you're drawing near dead.

[ldavidjm]

Its such a huge overbet that I fold it. Even if he has the club draw 60% of the time and an Ace only 40% you're still not getting anywhere near the odss to call it. Its probably even worse than that with the % but I don't really want to do the math.

[shish]

I see this bet a lot at the lower levels, not sure what level this is at. I fold here with no reads.

[durron597]

Sorry that should have been in the OP.

[durron597]

This person thought for a very long time before pushing.

[lastchance]

[ QUOTE ]
This person thought for a very long time before pushing.

[/ QUOTE ]
10/90 against Ax, 67/33 against a flush draw... This is not a good spot to be in if you want to call. Without a read, I think this call is terrible, and I'd never call here.

[pokerlaw]

i fold pretty quickly. this sucks though.

[morgan180]

it sucks but you can't call here. what types of hands would call at 100 raise on level one except for AJ or something like that?

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
i fold pretty quickly. this sucks though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly my thoughts.

[Moonsugar]

So, you fold because there is no money in the pot and you have lots of time.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
So, you fold because there is no money in the pot

[/ QUOTE ]

Except for 10% of my stack.

[ QUOTE ]
and you have lots of time.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is true.

[Burno]

[ QUOTE ]
I see villian on one of three hands,
40% 2 clubs
40% pocket aces
10% ace x

Im assuming this was a 22 or lower...

I might have to make a call in this situation because if the villian does get his flush, you have the nut flush draw.
Somebody flame me on this though.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll flame ya for it /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

You cannot consider calling given the range you put him on.

40% of the time you are a little better than a 2:1 favorite

10% of the time you are drawing next to dead

40% of the time you are crushed, drawing at two outs or a backdoor flush.

Ignoring the fact that your %'s don't add up to 100%, sum all of these probabilities and you'll find yourself in a very unfavorable spot.

The range of hands you are putting him on is off, IMO. There is no way he has AA 40% of the time here, more like between 0-5%. In order of likelihood, I think you see a Ax, two clubs, two ghey pair, or a set here.

Easy fold, and do it quick.

[MegaBet]

Insta-call. He is on a flush draw.

[Burno]

Your thinking is flawed. There is a solid chance he is semibluffing the flush draw but this is still an easy fold. I haven't done the math, but I'm guessing he has to have the flush draw at least 4 out of 5 times here just to make this an even gamble against his range.

You're simply crushed by every other hand in his range but the FD, and I don't think a bluff is very likely here.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
Insta-call. He is on a flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the only reason that I didn't insta muck. Then I decided there is no way I could make that determination without a read.

So I folded. He didn't show, of course, but my experience from the rest of the SnG (massive push overbets from this player) plus the preflop action tells me this player hand exactly one of the following hands: A2, 22, and possibly A9 or 99.

[YourFoxyGrandma]

I've seen alot of people playing sets this way recently.

[microbet]

Sucks when an ace flops on your kings.

Good chance you are slightly ahead and about the same good chance you are way behind, plus a small chance you are way ahead.

Adds up to you being too far behind.

Good job folding, IMHO.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]

Good job folding, IMHO.

[/ QUOTE ]

The only reason why this thread even exists is that I usually pride myself on having a good hand reading ability. I couldn't come up with a reason for why if he had a hand like a good ace why he would push here, except for the fact that this is a low buyin SnG, and maybe he expects to get paid off.

Here's the real question. Do you call with AQ?

[fnurt]

I think it is inconceivable to call here. Although I do not know if that word means what I think it means.

[grandgnu]

There are two clubs on board. I don't believe your opponent has a flush draw. Your opponent FEARS the flush draw, and is overbetting in an attempt to protect his Ace/x

I've seen plenty of donks push with Ace/4 or K/6 when they hit top pair. And I've seen plenty push for 800-1000 chips when blinds are 10/20 because they have pocket Jacks, Kings, etc. and fear the suckout.

They only know how to win small pots with these hands, and lose big pots with them.

[HighestCard]

[ QUOTE ]
The range of hands you are putting him on is off, IMO. There is no way he has AA 40% of the time here, more like between 0-5%. In order of likelihood, I think you see a Ax, two clubs, two ghey pair, or a set here.

Easy fold, and do it quick.

[/ QUOTE ]

You know I should probably reply to these things whem im fully awake...
Looking over my post I want to flame myself /images/graemlins/grin.gif..
I like your hand ranges much better

[microbet]

He's either all-in because he has the flush draw or because he's afraid of it. If he has the flush, you are a little ahead and there is some dead money.

If he's afraid of the flush draw, where are you? At a lower buyin, I think you are ahead most of the time here with AQ. It would be very consistent with his donkishness to make this move with TT, Ax or flush draw.

[vinyard]

[ QUOTE ]
I've seen alot of people playing sets this way recently.

[/ QUOTE ]

It sure seems that way. I can't explain their reasoning but I have seen it more in the last week than I had in the previous six months.