I finally decide to bet a river - 99 [Archive]

View Full Version : I finally decide to bet a river - 99

shant

07-30-2005, 10:57 PM

Evan made a post a while ago about how people don't bet rivers enough when it's checked to them. I think this hand is incredibly standard, but I'm not sure about the river. In the situation below I always check the river because I figure I'm ahead or I'm not and the opponent won't call if I am. I decided to switch it up and bet. Right?

The read is only over 30-40 hands. UTG+1 is loose, but doesn't raise garbage preflop and is passive postflop.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, 3 folds, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (7.66 SB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (4.83 BB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls.

River: (6.83 BB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets

chief444

07-30-2005, 11:03 PM

Read? It looks fine to me. I can't imagine you're behind unless he's got diamonds. What was the plan if he check/raised?

shant

07-30-2005, 11:05 PM

Edited and added a read. I'd fold the river to a checkraise.

chief444

07-30-2005, 11:08 PM

I like it then. nh

oreogod

07-30-2005, 11:11 PM

Looks solid to me...if he had an overpair to the board, Im sure you'd hear about it somewhere. I agree on folding to a check/raise. He call u down with AK, AQ hoping for a chop?

EDIT: never mind the chop comment, thought he called your last bet.

private joker

07-30-2005, 11:11 PM

I'm not crazy about it. What are you expecting him to call with -- A4? A3? I don't fear runner runner flush, but it's the only draw that got there. I doubt he has a pocket pair worse than you because he raised PF in EP. So he's either got a better pair (like JJ that was scared by the PF 3-bet and the Ts on board) or overcards -- overcards are folding this, and overcard diamonds will check-raise most of the time.

Value betting rivers is definitely important, and I too miss a lot of them. But this one seems a bit thin -- sort of like my thin one with 99 in that weird multiway hand.

chesspain

07-30-2005, 11:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
UTG+1 is loose, but doesn't raise garbage preflop and is passive postflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even though this read is based on less than fifty hands, it's the only read you have. Consequently, I don't like the river bet, since if the read is accurate:

1) He could easily be playing JJ/QQ this way.
2) The only worse pocket pair that he shows down is 88.
3) He probably will fold a big ace.

FishHooks

07-30-2005, 11:32 PM

I really dont like the riverbet either, I think you should just check/call. Plus checking might induse a bluff from a weak hand.

shant

07-31-2005, 04:40 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I really dont like the riverbet either, I think you should just check/call. Plus checking might induse a bluff from a weak hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm in position.

shant

07-31-2005, 04:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]
1) He could easily be playing JJ/QQ this way.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree with this.

[ QUOTE ]
3) He probably will fold a big ace.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't agree here. I think as you move up in levels, more and more rivers are called with A-high.

Jeff W

07-31-2005, 04:55 AM

This is an easy river bet-fold.

Entity

07-31-2005, 04:56 AM

I think AK is a fairly easy value bet here and 99 is a no-brainer.

shant

07-31-2005, 05:55 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think AK is a fairly easy value bet here

[/ QUOTE ]
Rad

shant

07-31-2005, 02:25 PM

He called with A/images/graemlins/heart.gifQ/images/graemlins/heart.gif and MHIG bia biaaaaa.

Entity

08-01-2005, 08:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think AK is a fairly easy value bet here and 99 is a no-brainer.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just want to reiterate how easy of a value bet this is. I know we know the results and all now, but this is a value bet that you guys shouldn't be missing.

QTip

08-01-2005, 10:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think AK is a fairly easy value bet here and 99 is a no-brainer.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just want to reiterate how easy of a value bet this is. I know we know the results and all now, but this is a value bet that you guys shouldn't be missing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Value betting A high is still something I'm trying to wrap my brain around.

Paxosmotic

08-01-2005, 10:20 PM

Do you have a link to the post that inspired you to bet here? Reviewing the action of the hand this looks like a check behind for me at this stage in my development, so I could stand to learn a little more it seems.

Evan

08-01-2005, 10:22 PM

I occasionally do a search for my name in 2+2. Shant is far and away the leader in people's posts that contain my name.

Good river bet.

shant

08-01-2005, 10:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Do you have a link to the post that inspired you to bet here? Reviewing the action of the hand this looks like a check behind for me at this stage in my development, so I could stand to learn a little more it seems.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't remember the hand or the context, I just remember Evan saying something along the lines of "people don't bet enough rivers when checked to" and something about this situation made me remember that comment.

Maybe Evan can elaborate.

shant

08-01-2005, 10:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I occasionally do a search for my name in 2+2. Shant is far and away the leader in people's posts that contain my name.

[/ QUOTE ]
Nice, and it mainly has to do with that stealing post I reference constantly.

Evan

08-01-2005, 10:34 PM

this thread? (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=smallholdem&Number=2473101 &Forum=f3&Words=%2Bhow%20%2Bgood%20&Searchpage=0&L imit=25&Main=2473017&Search=true&where=bodysub&Nam e=11253&daterange=1&newerval=1&newertype=y&olderva l=&oldertype=&bodyprev=#Post2473101)

shant

08-01-2005, 10:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
this thread? (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=smallholdem&Number=2473101 &Forum=f3&Words=%2Bhow%20%2Bgood%20&Searchpage=0&L imit=25&Main=2473017&Search=true&where=bodysub&Nam e=11253&daterange=1&newerval=1&newertype=y&olderva l=&oldertype=&bodyprev=#Post2473101)

[/ QUOTE ]
I thought I remember it involving being in position but that's a good thread too.

QTip

08-01-2005, 10:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I really dont like the riverbet either, I think you should just check/call. Plus checking might induse a bluff from a weak hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm in position.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wish you were out of position, because that's what I've been trying to refine lately. I value bet this here OOP and usually bet when OOP if I've not been told to stop by villain yet.

However, I've been trying to get better at inducing river bets. This is a tricky thing though, because many times I watch it check through and it makes me sick....but then you don't know if they would have called A high anyway. It really gets read sensitive, and I'm starting to just get less fancy because I hate missing value bets and betting is so underrated anyway. I just can't think of any good stats to look at to see if I can induce a bluff, and playing 8 tables doesn't make it easy to get the read you need. I know if I had AK there and you checked your 99 (again...theoretically OOP), I would check behind...

Evan

08-01-2005, 10:49 PM

I posted a hand in that thread where I bet the river in position. Here it is:

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
1 fold, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB calls.

Flop: (4.40 SB) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.20 BB) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, BB calls.

River: (8.20 BB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

Final Pot: 10.20 BB

Is that it?

shant

08-01-2005, 10:50 PM

Yeah, this has to be the thread and hand I was thinking of. I like the IM conversation.