+EV raise with flush draw, did I understand this correctly?

[eisanm]

On the flop it's an easy raise & cap since I'm getting at least 3-1 for my money on my flush draw which has odds of 2-1 on hitting by the river (assuming no one else has a better flush draw, which is possible yes, but not so likely that it should make a great difference). This is how I understand Pot Equity.


On the turn however it is not +EV to raise since I can only expect to get 3-1 for my money on my draw which now has odds of 37-9 or about 4-1 to hit. So I must only call here.

Counting implied odds maybe a raise had been correct even on the turn vs 3 opponents.

Either way this shouldn't be very hard for those who are more used to it to conclude. Please give me some comments on what you would do in my situation (on the turn).


Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with T/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, SB calls, BB calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (12.50 BB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero calls, SB folds.

River: (16.50 BB) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 16.50 BB


Getting 16.5-1 it could also have been possible to try a bluff on the river when checked to. I don't believe it would succeed to be honest, but with so high odds it's hard to tell. I've done it once with a missed draw and had one person fold to my 8-1 bluff. But that was different with not much action and he was quite likely to fold. Looking at the action in this game, no one is likely to fold, especially not BB.

[TwoShedsJackson]

Well, with a 3rd nut flush draw, a gutshot, two overcards, position, and three callers, I'm raising.

[Dave G.]

You've got it right mostly. However, implied odds don't make this a raise on the turn. Raising the turn would be pretty bad here; what if BB 3-bets? Even if he doesn't, you don't have enough equity to raise for value, implied odds or no. So you played it fine.

I wouldn't bluff the river without a good read on BB. He's been very aggressive the whole way through. I'm not sure he's laying down here.

[Fantam]

I think that you had more outs to improve your hand than you may have realised with your overcards and gut-shot draw on the turn.

Nonetheless I think that you played your hand well. As Dave G pointed out, raising the turn would have been uncomfortable if BB 3-bet.

I think bluffing the river becomes less likely to succeed, the more opponents you have. What will probably happen is that you will end up value betting someone else's A high or small pocket pair for them, when they call.

[silencio]

(grunching)
Everything seems cool to me except for the flop cap. I think villain's aggressiveness can show 2 things. A set which gives him 7 outs to improve to a full house or a flush draw which we have to fear because we won't have neither the nut flush nor the second nut flush. The cap could be standard but I have yet to read ssh (it's in the mail).

[UncleSalty]

[ QUOTE ]
On the flop it's an easy raise &amp; cap since I'm getting at least 3-1 for my money on my flush draw which has odds of 2-1 on hitting by the river (assuming no one else has a better flush draw, which is possible yes, but not so likely that it should make a great difference). This is how I understand Pot Equity.


[/ QUOTE ]

You are correct that pot equity makes this a raise/cap on the flop, but it has nothing to do with pot odds. The issue when determining whether to bet/raise a drawing hand vs. just calling is how many opponents are in the pot. (Fair share percent vs. actual pot equity.)

I did a post (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&amp;Number=2175558&amp;page=0&amp;view=colla psed&amp;sb=5&amp;o=14&amp;fpart=1#Post2175558) on this a while ago.

[LesWormMurphy]

Let's say instead of Q /images/graemlins/club.gifT /images/graemlins/club.gif, he had A /images/graemlins/club.gifT /images/graemlins/club.gif -- would you guys approve a turn raise there?

[Bradyams]

Well played.

[Dave G.]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's say instead of Q /images/graemlins/club.gifT /images/graemlins/club.gif, he had A /images/graemlins/club.gifT /images/graemlins/club.gif -- would you guys approve a turn raise there?

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

[LesWormMurphy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Let's say instead of Q /images/graemlins/club.gifT /images/graemlins/club.gif, he had A /images/graemlins/club.gifT /images/graemlins/club.gif -- would you guys approve a turn raise there?

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

[/ QUOTE ]

Elaboration, please?

[Bradyams]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Let's say instead of Q /images/graemlins/club.gifT /images/graemlins/club.gif, he had A /images/graemlins/club.gifT /images/graemlins/club.gif -- would you guys approve a turn raise there?

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

[/ QUOTE ]


Elaboration, please?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he'd be in a worse situation with the A/images/graemlins/club.gif rather than the Q/images/graemlins/club.gif. They are both clean overcards, and can be considered outs, but the A outs are more likely to be dirty. Most of these players will be playing AX from any position. This means they may already have X paired, and that's why they're calling down. If the A comes it's probably less good, than if a Q came. The difference is small, but have the A does pretty much nothing for you here.

[LesWormMurphy]

[ QUOTE ]
I think he'd be in a worse situation with the A/images/graemlins/club.gif rather than the Q/images/graemlins/club.gif. They are both clean overcards, and can be considered outs, but the A outs are more likely to be dirty. Most of these players will be playing AX from any position. This means they may already have X paired, and that's why they're calling down. If the A comes it's probably less good, than if a Q came. The difference is small, but have the A does pretty much nothing for you here.

[/ QUOTE ]

But any club gives you the nut flush? What I'm questioning here is why you wouldn't want to build a pot when you have 35% pot equity. (and I believe the hand is 3-4 ways)

[Dave G.]

We've only got 3 people we can be fairly sure will call our raise, the 3 people who already put money into the pot this round. SB will probably fold for 2.

Your gutshot and /images/graemlins/club.gifs give you 10 outs, discounting the gutshots for the possibility of chopping and of being beaten by a better straight. You can probably only give 1 out to your aces (you might be outkicked, dominated, or a pair of aces may not be enough to win). Your T outs are very poor and are worth 0. So I'd say around 11 outs.

With 11 outs your equity is 23.9%. So against the 3 opponents you are pretty sure will call your raise, you have a slight equity deficit, because you are contributing 25% of the pot. If you think you can give yourself 12 outs instead, then your equity is about 26.1%, giving you a slight equity edge.

However, what if BB 3-bets? If this happens, MP1 and MP2 are both likely to bail, in which case you're now contributing 37.5% of the pot this round. This is a significant equity deficit.

So if you have an equity edge, it's very, very small, and if you get 3-bet, you've now put yourself into a very unprofitable situation.

So calling is right.

[Dave G.]

[ QUOTE ]
What I'm questioning here is why you wouldn't want to build a pot when you have 35% pot equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's roughly our equity on the flop. On the turn, with only one card to come, our equity changes quite dramatically. It's not 35% anymore, the actual numbers are in the post I just made.

[LesWormMurphy]

I understand you now. Short-handed, 3-bet deducts equity and against a probable raiser, that's running a likely risk.

One more important lesson learned today, thanks.

And this also means that if the hand was 5-6 handed, its a very different story, right?

[Dave G.]

If you have 5 people coming along with you on the turn, by all means ram and jam the turn too. As long as you have an equity edge and you can keep it without knocking people out, push it.

And if you have a table like that, it's not fair to talk about it and not share with the rest of us. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[BluEsiNsOuL]

Is not capping flop -EV? If it is, I just found a leak of mine.

[eisanm]

Thank you all for your replies and for the information. It seems I played it fine except I didn't realise that I also had a gutshot, and I did not count my overcards as outs.

I find this discussion interesting and I am happy that you found my post interesting. As for results, they are already there I believe. Or did I not post the final hands? I'll look it up and put them here if I did not.

I did not. Now I did. BB had flopped two bottom pair and played it hard from the start. Just as some of you said, an Ac or Kc in my hand would have been a dead out for overpair while a Q or T on the river would have won the pot for me.

Very well read! Or were you just lucky?
It's interesting to see how well the results correspond to your reads.

And by the way, I didn't see it until now (third edit of this post), that I was actually drawing dead for a flush and top pair, only a gutshot would have made it. That means I had 4 outs on the turn.





Results in white below: <font color="#000000">
BB has 6s 4h (two pair, sixes and fours).
MP1 has 7c Kc (one pair, sevens).
MP2 has 7h Ah (one pair, sevens).
Hero has Tc Qc (high card, queen).
Outcome: </font>

[grjr]

[ QUOTE ]
Counting implied odds maybe a raise had been correct even on the turn vs 3 opponents.


[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't see anyone else comment on this but I may have missed it. Implied odds are used when deciding whether to call or fold; not whether to raise or call.