How does Variance come into play in MTTs?

[JC_Saves]

What is the concept of variance, first of all? and secondly how does it apply to MTTs?

I asked this in follow up to a post that I made asking about size of fields and the luck factor to survive long enough to where you can actually have a realistic shot of getting in the money.

Variance has to do with how severe your bankroll fluctuates.

The variance in MTTs will be much greater than one table SnGs. For example, you may win one out of every 5 single table SnGs you join, and get second in at least one more. It won't take long for your winnings to even out.

However, if you consistantly play in 2,000 person MTTs, you may only win once in every 250 tries or less, but when you do win, or even place in the top 3, it will be a HUGE boost to your bankroll, at least as compared to your buy-in.

I hope this makes sense.

[woodguy]

Here is an example of variance. (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=3009566&page=0&view=c ollapsed&sb=5&o=2&vc=1)

For me, I got the ass end of variance, for him the smiling end.

The larger your stack, the more bad beats, and losing hands you can withstand, the more variance you can handle, so overall a big stack lessens your variance in a tourney.

That is why some (including Sklansky) says to take thin edges early in order to increase your stack, which in turn decreases your variance later in the tourney.

Regards,
Woodguy

[JC_Saves]

thank you both for you input.

Variance is the swing in how your results vary. In probability, it would be the width of your distribution: thin width ( or variance ) means fairly consistent results around the mean of the distribution - fat width ( large variance ) means large departures from the mean results. What i have found causes the biggest swing in my game is the number and agro of loose-agressive players in the game. This can cause lots of fluctuation around unpredictable cards. When in a game with tight-aggressives or tight-passives - you have much better control over your risk. Nonetheless, just like the hand you reference - you nail LAGs by waiting until you have the edge and pop their stack - every once in a while they'll beat your 80% chance to win - and you say "nice hand" and look to play them the other 4 of 5 times /images/graemlins/wink.gif

-turbo

-turbo