Prop bet offered to me.( irieguy can kinda help me here)

[valenzuela]

I will tell the full story.
Ok so I have an online job which consists on offering empire backer accounts.( maybe some of u have seen me on rec.poker) I was doing my job on a random forum and I run into a thread. A kid( and i say kid becuase Im 17 and hes 14) wrote the following" well Ive been pwning the 55s and I have $2400 and I want to move up to the 109s, how many buyins do i need" most posters proposed 20-25 buyins but some cautious ones proposed 30 buyins...I said to myself well whats the worst that can happen. I proposed 80 buyins, the whole forum berated me. they asked for an explenation, i said to myself well whats the worst that can happen...i explained that somebody who starts a serious thread about folding KK preflop cant possibly have double digit ROI on the 109s and that he probably hasnt played 3000sngs to be sure he can beat the 109s, i proposed a bet to him..i was berated again..so this experienced poster( he had 500 posts and is like the gigabet of that forum) says he has 23% roi on 300 sngs, i think he even gave his party screenname so we could all watch him pwn the 109s. I send a PM to him " even money u dont have 20% or higher roi in ure next 300" his reply " i give u 2-1 i have 10% or higher in my next 300"
His either :
1) pretending to be a luckbox who knos nothing.
2) a luckbox who knos nothing.
3) pretending to be a luckbox who knos nothing but he underestimates variance and Im taking the good side of the bet.
I proposed a bet moderator, he accepted. So should I? Am I being tricked by a good snger?

[11t]

I would take it.

If he has 24% over the past 300 then he is due for a bad run /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

He is most likely a juvenile little e-thug.

[microbet]

2-1 is probably good enough that you have a good bet even if he is a great SNG'er. Whether you can trust the parties involved is a separate issue.

[raptor517]

i would take this bet with about 99.99999999999999% of the popluation. how might i ask, are u going to track all 300 though.. thats where the difficulty lies. tell him if he wants bigger action come to me or anyone else i talk to cuz its a great bet for you. holla

[valenzuela]

[ QUOTE ]
2-1 is probably good enough that you have a good bet even if he is a great SNG'er. Whether you can trust the parties involved is a separate issue.

[/ QUOTE ] The only one I can think of is gigabet, gigabet has enough reputation that he my oponent will probably accept it.

[FatalError]

i Would bet you that i can turn a 10% ROI over 300 109's and give 2-1 on that bet... i'm a 15% ROI player over 3000 so i think thats decent odds for me, i think over any given 300 SnG set i'm better than 2-1 to break 10%... remember if he goes on a heater early he can switch into a much lower variance (althought lower ev) style to make sure he stays above 10

i don't like this bet personally unless you know he's a luckbox donk for sure

[Jman28]

Even money that he can't break 20% sounds like a much better bet than 2-1 that he can't break 10%.

Any way you can get the first deal?

[microbet]

I'm not sure I understand what you are saying, but I would be very very very surprised if this person turns out to be gigabet.

[valenzuela]

of course but he offered me the second deal.
Btw the only way to mitigate variance is having higher ROI or playing a certain style that gives u more thirds finishes.
Oh and fatal error..Im sure raptor will accept the bet.

[valenzuela]

hahahahah, gigabet as a moderator, we give him the money and he pays it to the winner, gigbabet is known in every forum.( i learned this while doing my job), im sure he wont bother( i already sent him a pm)..plus i might get involved in the gigabet winning the lb bet...my job is certaily intresting.

[microbet]

I'd be pretty darn surprised if you could get him to moderate it either.

It doesn't take a huge chance of cheating to make this bet -$EV.

I personally wouldn't consider making this bet with someone that I didn't know and trust.

[valenzuela]

well i got nothing to lose attemping to find satisfying betting conditions. If the betting conditions dont satisfy me totally I wont accept the bet, im not SUCH an idiot.

[Matt R.]

I think it should be easy to calculate whether it's a good bet or not by using the standard variance for an sng player with an expected return of 134.07 per sng (edit -- I should say average return of 134.07, but you get the idea). I guess variance depends on the playing style, but I wouldn't think it would change all that much. Give yourself some cushion just in case he plays a really high/low variance style (if that's possible) that would throw off your calculation. I don't know what the standard variance is, but I'm betting a lot of people on here do or can figure it out.

As far as whether you're being tricked or not, it seems more likely to me that he's just an overconfident novice who doesn't know much (in regards to potential variance in sng's). Maybe make a condition on the bet that his current stats are accurate and he's not lying? i.e. he really HAS only played 300 sng's at the 109 level and has a 23% roi. If you can verify his stats and his results once the bet begins, I say go for it if it turns out to be +EV (from your variance calculations).

Edit again: I've never played a $109, but how difficult/unusual is it to achieve a long term roi of >10%? Just curious... and if it's not too difficult this may be a bad bet.

[maddog2030]

I wrote a spreadsheet calculator a while back to see how likely one is to run over X amount of SNGs. This assumes a 1.8 buyin standard deviation. I'm not 100% sure the numbers are correct so take them for what its worth (ie. don't blame me if they're incorrect):

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
True ROI Probability at 10%+ for 300 SNGS
---------------------------------------------
-20% 0.19%
-15% 0.81%
-10% 2.71%
-5% 7.45%
0% 16.80%
5% 31.52%
10% 50.00%
15% 68.48%
20% 83.20%</pre><hr />