All-in with AK nut flush draw on flop (50+5)

[gildwulf]

How's my play? Opponent is a loose donk:

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP1 (t740)
MP2 (t1035)
MP3 (t905)
CO (t825)
Button (t1165)
SB (t815)
BB (t165)
Hero (t895)
UTG+1 (t1165)
UTG+2 (t2290)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t150</font>, <font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, Button calls t150, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: (t375) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t745 (All-In)</font>, Button calls t745.

Turn: (t1865) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: (t1865) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t1865

[Matt R.]

Looks good to me.

[11t]

I saw this

"Opponent is a loose donk"

Then you overbet a semi-scary board versus a loose donk who could have a wide range of holdings and probably isn't letting go of a piece of this flop.

I don't like it, and a check-raise would probably get him to let go of more hands.

[bluewilde]

You think check-raising all-in on the flop would increase the chances he'll fold? Or, is it just asking for him to check behind and leave you somewhat screwed?

I'd try the CR, but I'd probably wanna hear it from somebody else /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

Edit: I'm also concerned about it being 10-handed at lvl 3. Maybe it's early on or maybe it's later on. I just don't think you're going to have much flexibility in the next 2 rounds, so I think you have to take advantage of this situation. I'd say you have to push this flop at some point: there's decent chance he'll fold, a chance he'll call you with a worse hand and a chance he'll call you with a better hand. Depending on what he has, I estimate the following:

9 outs to the nut flush, 6 As and Ks which you can probably count as 4 good outs.

So even if he calls with a better hand (not a flush but an overpair/pair on the board) I'd give you two cards to hit one of 13 outs, so you're about even money.

So between the chances he folds, the chances you're actually ahead and the chances you come from behind, I like moving in. Only question is whether he'll raise if you check and give you a chance to push.

[Matt R.]

I think the pot is too big for a check/raise to work better than betting out. Assuming button DOES bet, he will (should?) bet at least 200. If gildwulf then pushes, it's only going to be 545 more for villain to call. He's described as loose, so he's definitely not folding an overpair or an 8 for 545 more. At least I wouldn't think he'd fold anything that he would not fold to an initial push. Adding in the risk that he'll check behind, putting you in a rough situation on the turn if you miss, and I think pushing is the best play.

An argument could be made for check/folding, but I think the pot is big enough and your hand is strong enough (and you have enough FE) to push on the flop.

[johnnybeef]

i dont like it because it is an obvious bluff (even if it is a semibluff.) i would have played it slightly different. i like to raise 2.5bb pf in an effort to keep the pot smaller which allows you to get away from a hand like this if things go south. as it stands, by making a smaller raise you will be able to make a smaller continuation bet of around 175. my play on the turn depends upon the looseness tightness of the player.

[KingDan]

[ QUOTE ]
You think check-raising all-in on the flop would increase the chances he'll fold? Or, is it just asking for him to check behind and leave you somewhat screwed?


[/ QUOTE ]

You are hardly screwed with a free turn, Worst case you give a card to hit 6 outs, and you have a good redraw against.

If you are behind, a free turn gives you a free chance to hit.