My AA is beaten 41% of the time on this flop

[Steve]

15/30 blinds, I open w/ AA for t125 around back. BB calls. My notes say he is a tight player; multitabler.

Flop JT9r. Both of us have about t700 left.

If his hand range is AK,AQ,KQ,AJs,QQ-77, I'm already beaten 41% of the time! What do I do?

[gildwulf]

You push the sh*t out of this...

[Steve]

I'll lose it all 41% of the time. So you must be saying there are enough other hands he'll call with (stuff like QQ, AQ) to justify the push. Or are you saying the hand range is probably inaccurate.

[gildwulf]

So what you are saying is that by your calculations you are a favorite to win the hand so you shouldn't play it?

This gets a big...

WTF?

[Matt R.]

We're missing a lot of important information here.... He acted first on the flop, what did he do? Actually, I'm not sure what "around back" means. I'm assuming it's LP, I could be wrong though. Anyway, we'd be able to get a better read after we know what the flop action was.

[11t]

Bet 200 and fold to a push.

If he calls I'd check/fold the later streets.

This is assuming he is super tight.

[gildwulf]

What is the buy-in...

[11t]

I didn't look, I just saw the flop and versus a really tight player a bet of 200 will get all the hands out that are drawing and a call/re-raise typically means you are beat.

I just went by OP's read on the player and he asked for a line that should let him get off the hand if he is beat. This is about as good as I could come up with.

However his 41% of hands thing is ridiculous since there are way more ways to be dealt aj+ than 77-qq but I doubt he has QQ.

At least I don't call out of position with QQ preflop.

Of course with my line you could potentially fold to JJ.

[Steve]

[ QUOTE ]
We're missing a lot of important information here.... He acted first on the flop, what did he do? Actually, I'm not sure what "around back" means. I'm assuming it's LP, I could be wrong though. Anyway, we'd be able to get a better read after we know what the flop action was.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes LP, I think I was two to the right of the button.
And yes, he checked the flop to me.

[Steve]

[ QUOTE ]

However his 41% of hands thing is ridiculous since there are way more ways to be dealt aj+ than 77-qq but I doubt he has QQ.


[/ QUOTE ]

I took that into account. It is 41% given the hand range I specified.