07-30-2005, 12:45 PM
The 9ers are trading in the 40s on tradesports as an over 4.5 bet. I was thinking of buying them, but i'm not exactly in love with the idea, so i wanted to see what you guys thought.
A team with an awful record like the 9ers is going to get the first overall pick, and should be in good position in the other rounds. Alex Smith's scouting reports, according to the prospectus, make him sound like potentially another Roth type. Not oozing with high-level talents, but being the smart, tough, sound, gamer, winning type, in the McNair/Brady mold. Roth is also in this mold, and he peformed well from the get-go.
So buying a team (that was hit hard with injuries last year and had a crappy coach that they replaced with a more promising guy like Nolan), to win more than 4.5 games at better than even money doesn't seem like a bad idea at all. The problem is the schedule - for a 2-15 team, the 9ers schedule just isn't that easy.
First off, their division has no easy games anymore -- they themselves are the now pushover of that division. Arizona is going to be a tougher game this year than it has been in a long time, if not ever, St. Louis should be about as good as last year, and Seattle is expected to rebound off of last year's inexplicably poor performance. So the 9ers aren't getting any breaks in their own division. 2-4 in their own division would be terrific, and anything better than that would be otherworldly. 1-5 seems the most likely, with 2-4 more likely than 0-6, so let's call it 1.5 wins.
Out of their division, they play the NFC East. If the Giants are a bust, that favors this bet, and since I'm going to be heavily long the Giants, that's a nice little side hedge for me right there. Also, they face the Redskins the week after their bye week, so that is a game they can win. At Philly is clealry a loss, and at home against Dallas is probably a loss but certainly not a game they can't take a run at. Of the four games against the NFC East, I think only one win seems the most plausible outcome.
The remaining games consist of the following:
Indy
Tampa
at Chicago
at tennessee
at Jax
Houston
With the exception of the indy game, both home games are winnable. I'd like to think that they go 1-2 in the home games, although I'll admit that 0-3 is more likely than 2-1, but let's call it 1-2. Home field advantage in pro football is meaningful enough that 1-2 is a reasonable expectation even if they're not a better team than last year, which is unlikely. Plus, of those 3 home games, two are against teams that were in the .500 neighborhood last year. So we're going with 1 win in those 3 home games. I think that's more than reasonable.
Now, we're left with the 3 road games. The 9ers will obviously be at least 4.5 to 5 point dogs (entering the season) against even the other worst teams in the NFL when they're playing on the road. That said, none of these 3 teams are playoff teams, so with any luck the 9ers should be able to catch one of these teams sleeping and sneak a win out of one of these games. Jacksonville is respectable but probably not a playoff team this year, and the 9ers face them near the end of the season. Smith will have had a lot of time to develop by then, and the 9ers could be very competitive in that game. I think 1-2 is reasonable for these 3 road games.
So 2-4 in total in these remaining games (outside of their own division and the NFC East games).
That means my projected season win total is 4.5, and tradesports is offering better slightly than even money on that wager. Considering that they have a lot more upside than downside (if alex smith is another roth or even a fraction of that, they could win 7 or more), I like this bet. I don't like it anywhere near as much as the short Jets and long Giants bets, but I think it's worth a look and I'll probably throw something on it for kicks and giggles.
Other trades I'm currently researching (but haven't yet concluded i'm going to do) are :
(1) Buying Rams over 8.5 at 45
(2) Selling Packers over 7.5 at 53
Both of those seem pretty good at first glance.
A team with an awful record like the 9ers is going to get the first overall pick, and should be in good position in the other rounds. Alex Smith's scouting reports, according to the prospectus, make him sound like potentially another Roth type. Not oozing with high-level talents, but being the smart, tough, sound, gamer, winning type, in the McNair/Brady mold. Roth is also in this mold, and he peformed well from the get-go.
So buying a team (that was hit hard with injuries last year and had a crappy coach that they replaced with a more promising guy like Nolan), to win more than 4.5 games at better than even money doesn't seem like a bad idea at all. The problem is the schedule - for a 2-15 team, the 9ers schedule just isn't that easy.
First off, their division has no easy games anymore -- they themselves are the now pushover of that division. Arizona is going to be a tougher game this year than it has been in a long time, if not ever, St. Louis should be about as good as last year, and Seattle is expected to rebound off of last year's inexplicably poor performance. So the 9ers aren't getting any breaks in their own division. 2-4 in their own division would be terrific, and anything better than that would be otherworldly. 1-5 seems the most likely, with 2-4 more likely than 0-6, so let's call it 1.5 wins.
Out of their division, they play the NFC East. If the Giants are a bust, that favors this bet, and since I'm going to be heavily long the Giants, that's a nice little side hedge for me right there. Also, they face the Redskins the week after their bye week, so that is a game they can win. At Philly is clealry a loss, and at home against Dallas is probably a loss but certainly not a game they can't take a run at. Of the four games against the NFC East, I think only one win seems the most plausible outcome.
The remaining games consist of the following:
Indy
Tampa
at Chicago
at tennessee
at Jax
Houston
With the exception of the indy game, both home games are winnable. I'd like to think that they go 1-2 in the home games, although I'll admit that 0-3 is more likely than 2-1, but let's call it 1-2. Home field advantage in pro football is meaningful enough that 1-2 is a reasonable expectation even if they're not a better team than last year, which is unlikely. Plus, of those 3 home games, two are against teams that were in the .500 neighborhood last year. So we're going with 1 win in those 3 home games. I think that's more than reasonable.
Now, we're left with the 3 road games. The 9ers will obviously be at least 4.5 to 5 point dogs (entering the season) against even the other worst teams in the NFL when they're playing on the road. That said, none of these 3 teams are playoff teams, so with any luck the 9ers should be able to catch one of these teams sleeping and sneak a win out of one of these games. Jacksonville is respectable but probably not a playoff team this year, and the 9ers face them near the end of the season. Smith will have had a lot of time to develop by then, and the 9ers could be very competitive in that game. I think 1-2 is reasonable for these 3 road games.
So 2-4 in total in these remaining games (outside of their own division and the NFC East games).
That means my projected season win total is 4.5, and tradesports is offering better slightly than even money on that wager. Considering that they have a lot more upside than downside (if alex smith is another roth or even a fraction of that, they could win 7 or more), I like this bet. I don't like it anywhere near as much as the short Jets and long Giants bets, but I think it's worth a look and I'll probably throw something on it for kicks and giggles.
Other trades I'm currently researching (but haven't yet concluded i'm going to do) are :
(1) Buying Rams over 8.5 at 45
(2) Selling Packers over 7.5 at 53
Both of those seem pretty good at first glance.