10/20 6max: a river bluff - T9s

[Surfbullet]

No reads on villain.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif.
Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero checks.

Flop: (2.50 SB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button caps</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, Button checks.

River: (5.25 BB) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets...</font>

Surf

[clownshoes]

I think a raise PF would be good.

The limp on the button then capping the flop and checking the turn just seem really strange. I know it could be something like a big flush draw or an OESD but Im not sure how often these players decide on taking a free card on the turn after playing the flop so aggressively HU especially when a bluffable overcard pops up.

1) He could have paired on the flop or had 88, 99 and got spooked by the turn card and decided to see a cheap showdown.
2) Theres also a chance he decided to get fancy with AA-JJ (or a set) by not raising PF to keep you in and by checking the turn to invite a bluff.
3) He could have some sort of draw and really wanted to spaz his draw to get a free card.

If he has a lower pair theres no way hes going to fold after playing the flop so strongly. In the case he decided to get tricky and slowplay something better hes going to raise.
If he had a high flush draw I think he might still be inclined to call the bet (especially if he has the A/images/graemlins/club.gif) since the 5 is such an easy bluff card he might try to look you up.
If he holds something like 68, 34 or 46 it doesnt matter if he calls or folds as your hand would be good either way. (however, I dont think these hands are all that likely)

Of course it all comes down to how loose/aggressive/tricky he is. So, without a read I dont think this bet is going to pick up the pot enough to be worthwhile - I think youll be shown a pair pretty often.

Anyway, thats just my thoughts. Let me know if I sound like a jackass or I make no sense.

[krishanleong]

very good. He'll fold often enough.

Krishan

[Surfbullet]

Thanks for the input, good thoughts.

I didn't want to raise a hand with 0 showdown value preflop OOP against an unknown. I'll donk most flops, though.

When he checks the turn it seems to me that he's either A) going for a cheap showdown (but why 4bet the flop?) B)I got freecarded by aflushdraw or straightdraw.

The fact that the turn K is the perfect continuation card makes me think he's more likely to have a draw - if he had a hand worth protecting or wanted me to fold (small pair) I think he would have bet again.

Additionally, since I'm OOP the fact that I beat a busted straight draw does me no good - I can't call a river bet. Betting here ensures I win the pot vs whiffed draws that would have bluffed me out. Additionally there are a number of better hands that will fold as well. Whether he will fold them more than 1 in 5 is the question.

Surf

[kiddo]

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't want to raise a hand with 0 showdown value preflop OOP against an unknown.

[/ QUOTE ]

Isnt this in a way a reason to raise preflop? An ok hand but no showdownvalue, u want him to fold early if noone hit.

A raise preflop will add strength when u bet your draws u often hit with a and like T9s.

Not often he will limp with a better hand then yours preflop, is it? So it can be that bad, with or without showdownvalue?

If I think a raise preflop will make him play weaker/fold more postflop I will do it. Or if I think he will only limp weak hands preflop.

Otherwise I would play hand the same.

[Girchuck]

the villain has to fold one time in 5 for the bet to make a small profit. If he folds one in 6 its a small advertizing expense. If he folds more often than 1 in 5, its a must bet.
However, you also make the villain understand that capping the flop does not guarantee a free showdown.
If the villain knows that you love to bluff, he could be checking turn to induce another bluff from you.

Lets look at what this villain might fold more than one time in 5.
Some people limp on the button with a small pocket pair.
a small pair will call your river bet more often than 1 in 5 on average but some people would fold it more often, and you have no reads.
A small club draw is folding to your bet most of the time, but a button capping the flop with a small club draw might just bluff-raise your river bet and you will have to fold.
Q-high and J-high club draws beat you and they are also folding to your bet which is good.
A-high club draw is more likely if the button is passive. In my experience, people who don't raise suited aces on the button are less likely to cap the flop on a draw. Unless it is exactly A5c, in which case you lose. A-high club draw calls you less that one time in five on average.
Button could have a random bluff hand, and was trying to test you on the flop, then gave up on the turn. This is quite unlikely given that there was no preflop raise, unless button just began his tilt cycle.

All other flop-capping hands are either losing a showdown with your monster T-high draw (and fold to your bet, but the bet is still ok, because they might bluff themselves if you check again and you will have to fold) or they call you much more often than one time in 5.

[wheelz]

Good thing no club fell? /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

I haven't been raising these hands preflop either, obviously I have to start, but I like the hand

[SkittleBrau]

In my admittedly limited experience (none of which is at 10/20) the flop/turn action often means villian has top pair and "knows you're full of it" but then gets scared of the K and wants a cheap showdown. Since he limped preflop he could have something like 76 or 78. It also might be he goes crazy with draws on the flop, but this type of player seems likely to open limp on the button.

[Surfbullet]

[ QUOTE ]
Good thing no club fell? /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

I haven't been raising these hands preflop either, obviously I have to start, but I like the hand

[/ QUOTE ]


Yeah a club would have been messy.

I used to raise preflop in this situation, but I've toned it down. I find I still haev a good amount of fold equity on nearly any flop, and it lends a bit more weight to the times I do raise preflop.

Surf

[PokerMike]

Its headsup on the flop right? I would normally like the river bet if not for the heavy action on the flop. It sure looks like he caught a piece of something. That with the fact that you have no read makes me not like this particular river bet all that much...but i'd probably make it too /images/graemlins/tongue.gif.

Also don't like the flop cap drawing headsup out of position.

[Surfbullet]

[ QUOTE ]

Also don't like the flop cap drawing headsup out of position.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a 3bet, and definitely debatable. I find flop raises mean less and less, especially HU, and if I wanted a chance to fold a better hand I had to go on the aggressive. I'm certainly open to reasons for and against though.

Surf

[Victor]

i like it. he should fold often enough for it to be profitable.