AK blind defense.

[Entity]

I post in HUSH all the time now but I think this hand might be well served being posted here as a blind defense hand. It's 100% standard for me, but others might be curious/have questions/dislike some streets.

Party's $5/10. Villain is a decent-playing but not great LAG, 33/15/2.5 stats, who doesn't raise quite enough preflop and raises a bit too much postflop. Not a thinking player but I think he's on his way there. 33/15/2.5, I would say, probably transfers to something like 28/9/2.5 in full-ring play, so you can get an idea that he's slightly loose and aggressive, though he's more passive preflop than most.

Anyway. On to the hand.

Folded to him, he raises from the Button. SB folds. I 3-bet black AKo from the BB. He calls.

Flop is A/images/graemlins/club.gif3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif3/images/graemlins/spade.gif. I bet. He raises. I 3-bet. He calls.

The turn is the 7/images/graemlins/club.gif. I bet. He calls.

River is the T/images/graemlins/club.gif. I check.

[dirty moose]

i would value bet that river, looks like he got a weaker ace or nothing, he might have just tried to steal it on the flop with his raise, but i would value bet the river

[toss]

Nice checkraise.

[Jake (The Snake)]

Ok I'll bite since I wouldn't play the river this way.

Here are my thoughts... when villain raises the flop he almost certainly has either Ax or a pocket pair. After he calls on the turn the pocket pair is a much less likely holding so you go into the river thinking you very likely have him outkicked.

I think it's extremely likely he will pay you off with a weaker ace since he already called the turn and I doubt he would call the turn planning on folding the river.

So I guess it comes down to how often he is going to bet the river. Say he bets 60% of the time and calls the c/r 5/6 times.

C/R (.50)(2)+(.10)(1)+(.40)(0)= 1.1
Bet (1.0)(1)= 1.0

Am I thinking about this correctly?

[McGahee]

[ QUOTE ]
i would value bet that river, looks like he got a weaker ace or nothing,

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I think the idea is that you win 0 bets from nothing either way, but you win 2 instead of 1 when he has the weaker Ace. It's tough not to bet this with Ax if you're him because it looks like hero is giving up on a bluff.

[toss]

I don't think we really need math in this. The way villain played his hands highly suggest an Ace. His numbers also suggest he's overaggro postflop at the wrong spots.

Are you raising an induced bluff and forcing a weaker ace to make a crying call? Or are you simply inducing a bluff from a hand like a middle or bottom pair?

Or did you sense a slowplay? If he doesn't raise a lot post-flop, he probably doesn't have any reasonable hand besides AT, A-3, 77, TT that he would come in with that would connect with this board, which would beat you.

Did you fear he rivered A-10 or went runner, runner?

I do like the check for a couple of reasons:

If you get into a blind battle with him again, he seeing you check a strong hand on the river, he will be tentative to take a shot at you in a future hand--you have manipulated him into giving you free showdowns with your weak hands that have a chance of winning, i.e. Ace high or a bottom pair.

He's aggressive. So he might've been raising the flop with nothing. He'd stayed with you, well, because he's a LAG. Checking the river induces a bluff from a no-hand.

I like every street. That river check will get into his head and you can control him in future situations.

[Jake (The Snake)]

I don't see why doing the math could ever be a bad idea. Are you saying you think he is betting the river like 100% of the time so it's a no-brainer?

Even if this is the case doing the math can help since we can see how the correct play would change based on our inputs. This is especially true HU on the river where the correct play is almost always solvable based on your assumptions.

[private joker]

Now that is a sick river checkraise.

[toss]

I'm not saying its a bad idea to do math. I'm just saying given the reads and how villain played the hand, its likely that he has an ace and will bet once checked to on the river.

[dirty moose]

[ QUOTE ]
Now that is a sick river checkraise.

[/ QUOTE ]

i dont see a check raise working here, he says the villian is a decent player, so decent player or not, if you have been raised 2x in the hand you(the villian) have to think that your either just going to get called or get raised, i cant see the villian betting this river.

[mdeck]

But you must consider if the Villain is on his way to becoming a thinking player, he knows that this is a blind steal/steal defense situation, and that Entity's 3betting range here is huge.

When Entity leads this flop Villain probably raises with a weaker ace, and goes into calldown mode when 3-bet.

The villain is very aggressive for how loose he is, which means that chances are very high that he will value bet his A on the river. The check may trip him up as after the flop 3bet he seems to go into calldown mode, but I have a hard time seeing Villain taking a free showdown here. From the Villain's POV, Entity could be overplaying a big pair here JJ-KK, or maybe a weaker ace than his (provided he holds something like AJ/A9), and in his mind this would be a good betting spot.

I don't know how often Villain calls a c/r here, but if he's not quite at the level of a thinking player he probably pays off. If Villain was a little better I'd be more inclined to lead the river, since a more perceptive player IMO would check through for a free showodown or fold to the c/r, but given his reads I like Entity's play.

[bobbyi]

Well played.

[rmarotti]

Sweetest check/raise ever. I /images/graemlins/heart.gif you almost as much as I /images/graemlins/heart.gif jason_t.

[naphand]

Call his flop raise and CR the Turn looks a good line to me, it really looks like he has an Ace, there are no draws on the flop. He might even take your Turn raise as a /images/graemlins/club.gif draw semi-bluff and 3-bet you.

The River CR requires villain to have just not enough sense to bet. What draw can you be pumping on the Flop? He may think you check fearing a flush and check behind a weak Ace? It's your read and your line (when it works) gets an extra SB (less if he 3-bets the Turn).

[thejameser]

nh.

[chesspain]

On what types of hands do you think opponent is putting you when you check the river?

[KDawgCometh]

gotta love the bluff inducing check

[DMBFan23]

if I were villain and were putting you on a range based on all streets, what would that range be?

[Shillx]

Yeah dude this is totally standard imo when you are pretty sure that you have him kicked. Bet the scary river cards and check/raise the harmless ones. Nice hand.

Brad

[Nick C]

I most likely would have bet the river.

And I think what this means, mainly, is that I don't go for checkraises on the river enough.

[jba]

[ QUOTE ]
I most likely would have bet the river.

And I think what this means, mainly, is that I don't go for checkraises on the river enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

me too

thanks again fellas

[TheHammer24]

vnh. I love the check raise. Your read was perfect. My math: Villian bets river 75% of the time and calls the check raise 75% of the time. Always calls lead out.

C/R: (1)(25%)+(0)(25)+(2)(50) = 1.25BB
Lead out (1)(1) = 1 BB

The problem. I act to hastily and only see these things after the I have lead out /images/graemlins/frown.gif. And that is why all of you win more money than me.

[oreogod]

NH, I agree against an opponent such as this, with this kind of action, the check raise is pretty standard.

If u are in a situation where you will win 2 bets more than half as often as you will win 1 bet, you should check raise (to check raise you have to be a little more sure than 50/50 to account for the times he folds to your CR. Thats the way i look at it. I come up with a number, say I think a CR will succeed 60-70 percent or more, I will attempt it...even when he checks through it is still the right move. For those that dont know what the hell Im talking about...pg 206-208 in TOP)

[SCfuji]

i had a similar situation with oop AK today on full tilt except i handed the lead to the flop raiser and then threw in a check raise on the river.

paid me off with 66 /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Duerig]

I'd probably bet-call, bet-3bet, bet. I think it's a good line vs fairly aggressive opponents.

[Entity]

Goes to show how powerful a river checkraise looks against opponents that are decent.

I checked, Villain bet, I checkraised, and he called.

MHING. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Rob

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
Goes to show how powerful a river checkraise looks against opponents that are decent.

I checked, Villain bet, I checkraised, and he called.

MHING. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

I notice he also just called you on the turn.

I take it he had AT and improved on the river but was intimidated by your checkraise?