Top 2 Pair: Villain Pushes, I go all in over the top

Problems with the hand converter again. My stack was down to $38 due to a bonehead reraise with AQ that missed a flop maybe two or three hands before.

CO is the villain. No read on villain, except that he has played all five hands he has been at the table for and bought in short-stacked. MP1 is above average for Party $50 NL, in my view. Tight starting requirements, more aggressive than average (you all would probably still think of him as weak, though).

I'm curious to know whether the consensus is whether I should have folded to, called or reraised villain's push.

As a secondary question--QJs is a "trouble hand" I have only just begun playing again (see my long essay to newbies post). Anybody think a pre-flop fold was in order?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $50 .50 BB (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

BB ($49.95)
UTG ($46.40)
UTG+1 ($48.75)
UTG+2 ($20.10)
MP1 ($17.10)
MP2 ($76.09)
MP3 ($121.05)
CO ($23.50)
Hero ($38.74)
SB ($65.05)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif. MP1 posts a blind of $0.50. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 (poster) checks, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $2</font>, Hero calls $2, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls $1.50, MP1 calls $1.50.

Flop: ($8.75) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets $0.5</font>, CO raises all in ($21.50), Button reraises all in ($36.74), UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds.

Turn: ($9.25) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

River: ($9.25) A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

What is the right way to look at the math here? Should I have wanted UTG + 1 and/or MP1 to call or fold?

[vulturesrow]

I am too lazy to do the math right now but just my gut feeling is you dont want MP1 along, although that .50 bet into a raised pot doesnt seem like the work of a good player. CO's allin smells like a premium pair trying to protect his hand against the flush. So I think you put yourself in a good situation.

As to your QJs question, this is a pretty good place to play it. The only negative I see is that the PFR doensnt have a real deep stack. Still, he is representing a big pair and your hand has good potential for outflopping him.

I'm going to start referring to "above average for party" players as above average fish or something. People keep thinking I'm saying they are good players. This guy is above average for Party $5o, which is to say not as good as me, and I basically suck, I think.

[vulturesrow]

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I'm going to start referring to "above average for party" players as above average fish or something. People keep thinking I'm saying they are good players. This guy is above average for Party $5o, which is to say not as good as me, and I basically suck, I think.

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Yeah I know what you meant. I didnt mean to imply you thought the guy was good. Poor choice of words. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[gulebjorn]

I don't cold call raises with QJs too often. Of course, you have position here, but you better have a solid plan for a Q or J high flop. This hand could get you in trouble, for obvious domination reasons.

Because of this, you cannot play this hand for top pair value against a raiser. You're looking for a flush draw or straight draw. But the straight draws won't always be OESD, and the flush draw won't be the nut flush draw all that often.

That being said, this is one of the best flops you can hope for. I would probably just call the all-in bet, in case someone wants to come along for the ride. If they have a flush draw, they're getting 2:1 on their call. Considering that you are pushing the turn no matter what, this isn't even close to the odds they need to make their call correct.

In small stakes NL, you want to give your opponents chances to make mistakes. Taking a 2:1 call on a flush draw with very limited implied odds is a bad mistake. So you want them to make it.

Of course, they do not have to have the flush draw. If AQ, KT, AJ or something wants to call this, you should be more than happy to let them in.

JMO. Comments are welcome.

[vulturesrow]

Only thing I dont agree with is the call recommendation. He needs to go all in here or else when he puts the rest in on the turn, he is giving the remaining villain very good calling odds.

PF, I don't mind limping with Q-Js from CO or Button, but I would never call a raise with it. And it sure looks like you were dominated by villain. His play looks like kings, aces, or A-Q to me. I hope kings for your sake.

After the flop, you're ahead of all three of these hands. And with a flush draw and straight draw up there and the pot already big, I'm all in for isolation purposes. Get it heads up and play for a big pot against someone whom you're pretty sure you have beat.

[gulebjorn]

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Only thing I dont agree with is the call recommendation. He needs to go all in here or else when he puts the rest in on the turn, he is giving the remaining villain very good calling odds.

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You think?

Villain would be calling $36.74 for a 8.75 + 21.35 + 36.74 = $66.84 pot, so thats 1.8:1 if my math isn't failing me.

I'm looking at this flop to river now. I don't think that's good enough to call this, let alone very good calling odds.

You disagree?

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Only thing I dont agree with is the call recommendation. He needs to go all in here or else when he puts the rest in on the turn, he is giving the remaining villain very good calling odds.

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You think?

Villain would be calling $36.74 for a 8.75 + 21.35 + 36.74 = $66.84 pot, so thats 1.8:1 if my math isn't failing me.

I'm looking at this flop to river now. I don't think that's good enough to call this, let alone very good calling odds.

You disagree?

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Can I just say that you two are giving these donks too much credit. Do you honestly think THEY are considering the odds? All the guy is probably thinking is, "I've got two callers, so now I have to call on my draw." And that may be giving him too much credit. There's a big difference psychologically for most of these donks between calling a raise and a call and calling a raise all in and another raise all in. I know it doesn't change the math but for them...

Like I said in my previous post, this is already big and there are too many cards on the turn and river you don't want to hit. I'm all in on the flop for isolation against a player whom I'm pretty sure I have beat.

[gulebjorn]

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Can I just say that you two are giving these donks too much credit. Do you honestly think THEY are considering the odds?

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This is exactly why you need to think about the things we have been discussing. They don't have a clue, so you can offer them incorrect odds, and they will still call. This is very good for you. I hope you understand this concept, or else you urgently need to study up.

You should always be thinking about pot odds and implied odds, especially when your opponents are not, because they will allow you to lay them horrible odds and they will take them. This is the way you make money in NL.

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Can I just say that you two are giving these donks too much credit. Do you honestly think THEY are considering the odds?

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This is exactly why you need to think about the things we have been discussing. They don't have a clue, so you can offer them incorrect odds, and they will still call. This is very good for you. I hope you understand this concept, or else you urgently need to study up.

You should always be thinking about pot odds and implied odds, especially when your opponents are not, because they will allow you to lay them horrible odds and they will take them. This is the way you make money in NL.

[/ QUOTE ]


I do understand this, but with top two agaisnt that board and two opponents, your winning percentage goes down dramatically. I want the other guy out in order to give myself better odds of winning it. If the one guy has black kings and the other has Ad-9d and they both call, Hero is only 45% to win after the flop. But if you get it heads up agaisnt the kings, Hero is 72% to win. I'd rather play for a big pot as a 72% favorite rather than 55% underdog. But that's just my preference. I'd have to do the math, but letting the other guy just call, without Hero reraising all in, might be mathematically close to +EV. But again, I'd prefer not to have him there.

[gulebjorn]

I'm always up for a little discussion, so let's see:

1) you let the other caller in
EV: $66.84 * 0.45 - $36.74 * 0.55 = 10$
2) you shut the other caller out
EV: $30 * 0.72 - $ 21.45 * 0.28 = 15.6$

(Did I get it right this time, fim?)

So I'll be damned if you not right.

It's kinda strange though, because I'm pretty sure that the other caller is not getting odds to draw as I calculated in a previous post. So I thought that would increase your EV. But apparently, this changes when the pot is not heads-up or something. I need to think about this.

[gulebjorn]

If 2nd villain is holding Ad 9d (and 1st villain is holding Ks Kc), he has a 41% chance of winning, or 1.5:1, so he would be getting correct odds to call with pot odds of 1.8:1.

I was wrong /images/graemlins/blush.gif

Edit: if we take the kings out of the equation, twodimes says:

Ad 9d 415 41.92 567 57.27 8 0.81 0.423
Qs Js 567 57.27 415 41.92 8 0.81 0.577

That's lots more equity for A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif than I would have guessed.

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But apparently, this changes when the pot is not heads-up or something. I need to think about this.

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I'll let this go and just assume you are joking. But if not, "I hope you understand this concept," now "or else you urgently need to study up."

[gulebjorn]

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But apparently, this changes when the pot is not heads-up or something. I need to think about this.

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I'll let this go and just assume you are joking. But if not, "I hope you understand this concept," now "or else you urgently need to study up."

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/images/graemlins/grin.gif

I thought it was because there were three people in the hand, my chances of winning the hand suddenly dropped more than I expected.

But it turns out that it was just because Ad 9d had a much better chance of catching up than I thought.

Fim only posted his EV calculation yesterday or something, is it that strange that I haven't figured out how my EV changes with the number of players that are in the hand?

As to the study up-remark: sorry if I was sounding condescending, but it's not uncommon for new posters to not know about pot odds and implied odds. I interpreted your post prior to mine as: "who cares about odds, they don't care, why should we?", so I was merely trying to point out that this stuff is important.

But hey, I stand corrected on the issue /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[MRBAA]

Well, Ad9d has both a nut flush and gutshot on the flop. That's why it has so much equity. 9 clean flush outs (QJd are on board) and 3 additional clean str8 outs. Plus runner runner combos for trips or two pair, of course, maybe add .5 out, so a total of 12.5 clean outs twice.

[fimbulwinter]

you really need to fold preflop here, that call costs you money long term.

given the play of the hand, i don't think you want another player in here, but i really think re-raising and calling are equivalent. the point is this: you have CO's likely hand range dominated but you don't have a hand that's robust enough (read: has lots of boat redraws) to want the extra profit of an overcaller with a flush draw. if someone has Q8 or J8 or a set or a 9t they're playing for all their chips anyhow.

fim

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But apparently, this changes when the pot is not heads-up or something. I need to think about this.

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I'll let this go and just assume you are joking. But if not, "I hope you understand this concept," now "or else you urgently need to study up."

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/images/graemlins/grin.gif

I thought it was because there were three people in the hand, my chances of winning the hand suddenly dropped more than I expected.

But it turns out that it was just because Ad 9d had a much better chance of catching up than I thought.

Fim only posted his EV calculation yesterday or something, is it that strange that I haven't figured out how my EV changes with the number of players that are in the hand?

As to the study up-remark: sorry if I was sounding condescending, but it's not uncommon for new posters to not know about pot odds and implied odds. I interpreted your post prior to mine as: "who cares about odds, they don't care, why should we?", so I was merely trying to point out that this stuff is important.

But hey, I stand corrected on the issue /images/graemlins/smile.gif

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You did sound pretty snarky...but no problems here. And no I'm fully aware of odds and that's not what I meant at all. My first priority in this hand is to do everything I can to get the other guy to fold in order to improve my winning chances.

[ QUOTE ]
Well, Ad9d has both a nut flush and gutshot on the flop. That's why it has so much equity. 9 clean flush outs (QJd are on board) and 3 additional clean str8 outs. Plus runner runner combos for trips or two pair, of course, maybe add .5 out, so a total of 12.5 clean outs twice.

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I didn't realize how big Ad-9d is here, actually, but even if you change it to 7d-6d or K-10 whatever, Hero is probably at best 50% against an overpair and a draw. I want to be heads up against those kings or aces.

I pushed all in hoping that it would cause UTG + 1 and MP1 to fold, and I was happy to see they did. My thinking was simply that more players would equal more cards coming that could beat me.

Anyway, Villain showed down TT; he evidently had a lot of faith in his gutshot. I won the $69.00 pot.

Good discussion on this hand; thanks.

[TheWorstPlayer]

Definitely fold preflop. Calling raises with hands like QJs is not that great. Yes, it is probably going to be multi-way, and yes you have the button. So I might call it if I knew that all of my opponents were postflop donks. But I wouldn't really get into the habit of calling it. In general, especially in over hyped up games like this one sorta appears to be, that's not going to be a winning play for you. I'd rather call with 78s than QJs probably and I don't really like that call here either because the stacks aren't deep enough. If everyone has 200bbs then I think either call would be fine. Postflop is fine. You can also just call, it doesn't really matter. Anyone who has a set is going to call or push so whatever. But I'm definitely not folding to these retards.