PFR with TT gets 3-bet and capped behind -- confused! [Archive]

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Knoler

07-30-2005, 12:18 AM

I'm really not thrilled with how I played this hand. The action just left me kind of confused, so I passively called down.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
1 fold, Hero raises, UTG+2 calls, MP1 3-bets, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Button calls, SB caps, 1 fold, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Button calls.

MP1 is real solid. SB is a little overaggressive preflop -- but my sample size is small. MP2, MP3, and the button are *terrible*.

With the action behind me, I'm pretty sure I'm way behind, unless MP1 and SB both have AK. However, the pot is huge -- I can expect to get 5 to 1, and I call for set value.

Flop: (29 SB) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif (7 players)
SB bets, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, Button calls.

Here's where I got really confused. It's hard to fold here, getting 30:1. But, my set outs might be dead, and it's so likely that someone has the A, K, or J /images/graemlins/heart.gif.

Is this a clear fold? Should I raise, hoping to fold the J /images/graemlins/heart.gif if the A and K /images/graemlins/heart.gif aren't out?

Turn: (17.50 BB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif (6 players)
SB bets, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 raises, MP2 folds, Button folds, SB folds, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls.

Now I pick up 3 semi-clean gutshot outs. I'm completely stuck in call down mode. I value my hand at around 3 or 4 outs. However, none are completely clean.

Still, it's hard to fold getting 18.5:1.

River: (24.50 BB) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+2 bets, MP1 folds, Hero calls.

I make a weak flush. Since I can call getting 25:1, I call.

Final Pot: 26.50 BB

Advice?
-Brian

Harv72b

07-30-2005, 12:29 AM

I keep looking & looking for a fold in this hand, but I can't find it. If anywhere, it's on the flop, with an overcard coming, SB leading into the field, and a decent chance it gets raised behind you. But still...30:1, and if the raising war continues behind you, then you can muck it.

More & better outs on the turn (although the J appearing likely killed your remaining set outs, if they were good in the first place), and nobody raised the flop (indicating the A or maybe K /images/graemlins/heart.gif). The delayed raise from MP1 is scary, but what can you do?

If MP1 calls or raises you can fold the river, but not closing the action & getting 25.5:1.

Buckmulligan

07-30-2005, 12:35 AM

I play this the same. Do we fold the flop if it's two back? We certainly fold the turn.

Harv72b

07-30-2005, 12:45 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I play this the same. Do we fold the flop if it's two back? We certainly fold the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I fold the flop if it's two back. That kind of action virtually guarantees that Hero is drawing to (at best) a very shaky two outs. With the possibility of a made flush/higher set already out there, and the virtual certainty in this case that there are redraws even if Hero spikes his T and is best on the turn, the pot odds can pretty much go out the window.

Knoler

07-30-2005, 12:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I play this the same. Do we fold the flop if it's two back? We certainly fold the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I definitely do. Seeing a bet and raise behind makes it more likely that the A /images/graemlins/heart.gif or K /images/graemlins/heart.gif is out there, and makes my set outs even more suspect. Not to mention I wouldn't want to get stuck in a raising war when I might be drawing nearly dead.

-Brian

Paxosmotic

07-30-2005, 12:17 PM

The way the flop played out, how about a raise on a safe turn as our one shot to push the J/images/graemlins/heart.gif out?

chief444

07-30-2005, 12:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I keep looking & looking for a fold in this hand, but I can't find it.

[/ QUOTE ]
Me neither.

DeeJ

07-30-2005, 06:30 PM

Gah. Never fold a decent 4-flush here. There's no reason to believe that any of the JKA /images/graemlins/heart.gif are out there, certainly not a 90% probability (which you'd need in excess of with such a big pot). I play it the same, I think you win often enough when the heart hits the river.

jba

07-30-2005, 07:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I play this the same. Do we fold the flop if it's two back? We certainly fold the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

yes. we can, at that point our pot odds are worse and we would need to consider our outs to be much more vulnerable if not dead.

winky51

07-30-2005, 08:03 PM

FOLD FOLD FOLD FOLD. The odds are not enough.

#1 6 callers. Someone hit the flush
#2 his set can make someone else's straight, this is 2/4 mind you.
#3 1:23 for the set IF no one has the flush or can draw out or redraw. Your only getting 1:30 on a super dangerous board with a bunch of callers. ALSO what if the flop is raised. There goes the 1:30 now its 1:15. So.....

Id say the odds are closer to 1:60.

chief444

07-30-2005, 08:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Your only getting 1:30

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think I've ever heard someone say that before. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Nick C

07-30-2005, 08:50 PM

For better or worse, I'm pretty sure I would have played the hand the exact same way you did.

I'm also pretty sure you played the hand better than SB did.

Knoler

07-31-2005, 12:45 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Never fold a decent 4-flush here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you telling me that if the flop goes bet, I call, and then raise - reraise behind, you don't drop the hand? Or, do you mean that you'd never fold the 4-flush for just one bet?

The latter I agree with, the former, not so much...

Regards,
-Brian

TheHip41

07-31-2005, 01:15 AM

Knoler

07-31-2005, 01:22 AM

[ QUOTE ]
FOLD FOLD FOLD FOLD. The odds are not enough.

#1 6 callers. Someone hit the flush
#2 his set can make someone else's straight, this is 2/4 mind you.
#3 1:23 for the set IF no one has the flush or can draw out or redraw. Your only getting 1:30 on a super dangerous board with a bunch of callers. ALSO what if the flop is raised. There goes the 1:30 now its 1:15. So.....

Id say the odds are closer to 1:60.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey man,

I've been thinking about your post, and it made me decide to do some math. Let's assume that on the flop, I'm always behind, since I probably am. Let's further assume that my math is correct, but that may not be true, either...

Probability that the A K or J /images/graemlins/heart.gif is *NOT* out = (42/45)*(41/44)*(40/43)*...*(31/34) = 33*32*31 / 45*44*43 = .38

So, 38% of the time, I have 9 outs. Let's call it 3.5.

I've got two outs to a set. Maybe someone has QQ. Maybe someone has J9. Maybe someone already has a flush, but maybe I'll end up with a boat. Let's be conservative and call it half an out.

Sometimes I'll hit a runner runner straight. Again, 1/2 an out.

Upon further review -- and I suppose I could have done this myself and spared you all this hand -- the flop call is easy, getting 30:1 with about 4.5 outs.

If it gets raised and 3-bet behind me on the flop, then I can just be done with it, since my pot odds are not as good, and there's a better chance my flush outs are no good.

And I'm not one to think that posting results is a big thing but in this case I'll make an exception...my flush outs were golden. /images/graemlins/grin.gif UTG+1 turned over 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif and I take down the pot. MP1 claimed to have QQ.

Winning this pot was like finding $100 in my pants after it'd gone through the laundry!

Thanks, all, for the advice,
-Brian

winky51

07-31-2005, 10:42 AM

All of you are doing the math and thats fine. If players played totally mathematical I would agree. But there are 6 callers. There is no F'ing way his 10 high flush is good or his set. You put your #s into the random hand generator. These people are calling with JTs, 89o, K9s, Axs, Ax.... not Q7o random computer hand.

Do all the math you want with 6 caller someone has a better draw or hand than you, its that simple. Fine 30:1 on the flop what happens if someone raises nehind you and there are a bunch of players left to do so. Now its 15:1 on the flop.

You hit the flush and someone else bets, now what you call down with your T high?

You all are not thibking about the players or the future bets this player is losing most of the time. Poker is not just math math math.

1st you got a reraise and a cap and caller for 2 cold. There is no doubt in my mind between all of them someone has the K or A of hearts. Just between the reraisers it is very likely. about a 56% chance they don't have a heart each. If they are raising they can have anything from AA-QQ or AKs or just AK. Either the A or K of hearts beats you here. Not to mention 5, Q, 8. How many str8s are possible with that Q,8 and his T. People call raises all the time with hands like J9s, KJ, 97s, T9s, JTs (maybe a heart too). So maybe even his Ts are dead. No tens left in the deck.

You think they are all calling the raising with random hands here? Mostly medium suited connectors and high cards. They cant all have pairs 1:16. Maybe 3 at most of the callers/raisers, that leaves 4 others. Soo he is either facing a bigger heart, str8 draws, or his ten is dead, and raises on the flop, and calling down with a weaker hand to the river.

AND 4 people calling that flop?!?!? your beat someone has the better flush draw.

Vs 6 random players that randomly call raises, I say sure the odds are right. But vs 2 reraisers and 4 half intelligent callers of the typical 2/4 no way.

Clear clear fold here despite the 30:1 which are really 15:1 if someone raises.

Knoler

07-31-2005, 12:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Vs 6 random players that randomly call raises, I say sure the odds are right. But vs 2 reraisers and 4 half intelligent callers of the typical 2/4 no way.

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you see the pre-flop action? Three players called three bets cold. I don't think I'd call that half intelligent. As described, these players were truly terrible.

Anyhow, I do see your point, though -- and if these were stronger players, I'd agree with you.

-Brian

W. Deranged

07-31-2005, 12:39 PM

Winky,

Realize that the mathematical calculation involving the probability that there is not a higher /images/graemlins/heart.gif in play has nothing to do with the kinds of other players involved. True, those big cards are more likely to be in play than small ones, but that effect is small and should not distort the 38% number (which I haven't checked, but looks good) that much. We are basically looking at the pure probabilistic chance that there is a bigger hard distributed somewhere in the other cards in our opponents hands.

As for the hand, I'm with Harv and co. The first time I read this, I figured a fold was obvious, but the 38% is really quite convincing to me. If we can perceive 10-13% or so equity purely from the times our flush draw is good, folding here would be quite bad.

I like folding to a bet and a raise back on the flop since it becomes extremely unlikely that the flop gets to three-bets without someone playing a big heart.

winky51

07-31-2005, 03:50 PM

#1 I ran this through Pokerstove assumning (QQ) and 5 other random hands. Surprisingly your pot equity was 13.97%.

#2 I ran it though assuming (KK) and the A hearts out. Surprisingly your pot equity was 5.94%

#3 I ran it though assuming (KK, T9) and the A hearts out. Surprisingly your pot equity was 3.34%

#4 I ran it though assuming (KK) and 9 random hands. Surprisingly your pot equity was 13.239%

Now 30 bets. Lets say you hit your flush. 38% of the time someone has a higher flush and they raise the turn or river. Do you call down?

Youd spend 7 bets to win 30, 38% of the time. Is it still worth it? With all those callers I have to assume someone has the bigger flush draw. I assume #2 scenario. 1:17 chance to win.

38% 1:17 (someone has the higher heart)
62% 1:7.5 (only facing KK here and no one has the higher heart.

And there are 5 callers on the flop.

I hate to admit it when I am wrong but your right. Amazed as I was looking at the pokerstove analysis, your right to call. Even if there is a flop raise it seems like your right to call as long as you have the last call.

winky51

07-31-2005, 05:13 PM

Buw wait a second. If no one raises the flop and they have a heart AKJ do you call down?

30 small bets
Youd pay 1+2+2 or 5 bets to win 30. thats 1:6

mack848

08-01-2005, 05:02 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Buw wait a second. If no one raises the flop and they have a heart AKJ do you call down?

30 small bets
Youd pay 1+2+2 or 5 bets to win 30. thats 1:6

[/ QUOTE ]

Your 5 bets would win you a lot more than the 30 bets in the pot on the flop.