Shorting the NY Jets' reg season 2005 win total

I am in the process of selling "Jets over 8.5" contracts on tradesports.com in the low 60s. I feel the Jets are a great under bet this year, as they:

(1) Got worse, not better, in the offseason, losing multiple free agents and drafting a kicker with their top pick (a truly dumb move)

(2) Have a much tougher scheudle this season than last season

and
(3) are facing a tougher division than last season, as NE isn't going anywhere, Buffalo is tough as hell, and Miami will be better than last year.

Not to mention, Chad and his bad arm aren't suited for Heimerdinger's shotgun, down the field style offense.

Jets are in a lot of trouble. The playoffs are out of the question, and Herm will be the big scapegoat this year as the Jets win 6 or 7 in an ugly season.

Your thoughts?

[pistolwhipped]

Before replying to this thread let me make it abundantly clear that I am a Jets fan. I am going to try my best not to give a biased argument against shorting them at over 8.5 total wins. In my personal opinion I see them going 11-5 or 10-6.

1. They did lose Reggie Tongue and Donnie Abraham both to retirement(starting corners are currently Ray Mickens LCB and David Barrett RCB along with S Erik Coleman and S Oliver Calestin). They picked up Pete Hunter from the Cowboys to replace Donnie but what we can't forget is that Ty Law going to the Jets is still a possibility, which would greatly enhance their secondary. My main concern on defense is the status of John Abraham, if they don't get a deal signed before the season begins that will hurt the Jets big time. If Abraham remains on the team the Jets rushing defense will be stellar just as it was last year and the only concern will be their secondary.

I agree 100% that drafting a kicker with their top pick was stupid, on the bright side he is an excellent kicker with a big leg. I don't agree with the Jets getting rid of Brien because he was a quality kicker, his big misses against the Steelers was not his fault - I blame it on the coaching staff for not attempting to get closer to the end zone.

2. There is no disputing that they have a tougher schedule than last season. There's nothing you can say about that one.

3. I totally disagree with your third statement. I think if anything their division will be easier. New England has lost key personnel and key defensive players. I am not sold on Tom Brady being a quality quarterback, together the Patriots are a great team but this year they meet their demise (the Patriots do a lot of things right and they squeak away with wins, but methinks they've lost too many players to be as dominant as they once were). Buffalo having JP Losman start alongside McGahee - IMO their run game is going to be their primary offense and as soon as teams realize that they'll key in on that. I am not sold on JP and I am not sold on Buffalo. Miami will be better than last year but they have issues. Issues take time to resolve. Bottom line is their division is full of great defensive teams which makes it harder to get wins, but the Jets have the team to potentially beat BUF, MIA and NE.

1. I don't know if you know this but when Pennington was at Marshall he lined up in the shotgun offense. So you saying that he isn't suited for Heimerdinger's shotgun is ridiculous. Also having the addition of a deep threat in having Coles back will make the shotgun that much more effective. I have been praying for the Jets to line up Pennington in shotgun and this year it finally happens.

The Jets are not in a lot of trouble. There are some concerns but I think they have a legitimate shot at making the playoffs. Only time will tell and before the season begins we'll know where teams stand with depth lineups.

Hope this helps and again I tried my best to not act in a biased manner.

[football4me6]

I would like to know how you are not sold on Tom Brady as a "quality quarterback". The man has been nothing but effective ever since he has become the starter and has 3 super bowl rings to back that up. I do not know if there is a qb I'd rather have driving my team down the field down by 3 with less than 2 minutes to go than Brady (other than possibly manning). Anywho, as for the Jets season win total, I am going to have to say that although the losses on D are big, they should still beat the dolphins twice and will probably split with the bills and lose to the pats twice. At this which i think is best case senario, in order to get up to more than 8 wins, curtis martin will have to have a repeat performance of his last year. However, I do not believe he will do this and the loss of Lamont Jordan to spell curtis martin when he needs a breather will hurt the Jets immensly causing them to have a 6 or 7 win season.

[pistolwhipped]

I'm not sold on Tom Brady being a "quality quarterback" because I don't like the Patriots. Perhaps I used the wrong words to describe him. I think he's one of those guys that are great, but aren't superstar caliber. Don't lose me here. I don't think that's due to his abilities, instead I think it's due to the team he's on. I don't particularly care for how the Patriots play football, which is why I don't particularly care for Tom Brady (basically what I'm saying here is it's not his fault I don't like him, but the coaches are at fault). To me they are a nickel and dime team working their way down the field. That works for them. No doubt as evidenced by their Super Bowl victories. He has been effective and he thrives under pressure so perhaps I should reneg my "quality quarterback" statement.

I agree with what you've said about the wins except I think they split with the Patriots...win at home/lose in Foxboro. Also you bring up a good point about Curtis Martin, however, I think this year the Jets will be a more pass oriented team (also I have faith in Derrick Blaylock's abilities). Lamont Jordan was a tank and in all honesty I wished the Jets would've kept him as the starter and made Martin the backup - obviously that couldn't happen for many reasons, but Jordan will prove his worth to the league easily. Jordan would always come up big when yards were needed and to not have him is going to be a huge loss but I am quite sure creative juices will be flowing in New York and the Jets predictable offense will change into a potent unpredictable offense.

If you want over 8.5 wins you get 2 Dolphins wins, 1 Bills win, 1 Patriots win, 1 Saints victory, 1 Panthers victory, 1 Buccaneers victory, 1 Jaguars victory and 1 Chiefs victory.

Herm Edwards is a great coach (minus his mishaps with clock management) and I am happy to see Mike Heimerdinger as Offensive Coordinator.

On a side note there's been a lot of hype in Minnesota with a revamped defense, but I think what most people don't realize is who's behind the defensive schemes over there - Ted Cottrell. I am not sure what the line on is for MIN total wins for the season - I'd imagine it's 8.5 and that's a sure UNDER in my opinion. MIN has a lot of defensive talent now but they have a piece of [censored] as the Defensive Coordinator - Ted Cottrell is not worth his weight in [censored] and as such, I feel nothing but sympathy for all of you Vikings fans. It's going to be a long season for you (defensively).

Thanks for your thoughtful post. I have a couple of points to make.

You said you see the Jets as a 10 or 11 win team, meaning you think they'll do at least as well as last year. You also admit that their schedule is much tougher than last year. Therefore, you obviously believe the 2005 team will be much better than the 2004 team. I'm not sure how you can reach that conclusion based on what transpired in the offseason.

The Jets were decimated by free agency, and that you cannot debate. Ferguson and MacKenzie are both key losses that will diminish both lines' productivity considerably, and bradway didn't really do anything to replace them. You agreed that drafting Nugent was dumb, and the rest of their draft isn't going to make a material difference this year, if any at all. Martin is certainly not going to do better than last year, and I think it's unlikely that he'll repeat or even come close to that performance. Blaylock is a decent back runner but he's no Lamont Jordan.

Coles is a good receiver, and he is an upgrade over Moss, but not a huge one, and he also doesn't add the value Moss did to the special teams' units.

To me, it just doesn't add up that the Jets will win more than 8. I see 6 or 7, maybe 8, but not more than that.

[football4me6]

If you want over 8.5 wins you get 2 Dolphins wins, 1 Bills win, 1 Patriots win, 1 Saints victory, 1 Panthers victory, 1 Buccaneers victory, 1 Jaguars victory and 1 Chiefs victory.

of the 5 non division games you have listed there, i could see the Jets going 3-2 at absoulte best. they simply lost too many players to compete at the level that these teams. i think the jets will need another miracle out of curtis martin or its gonna be a 6-8 win season for them.

[heropretend]

The Jets aren't likely to get 10-11 wins in that division. Their division is too tough. The concerns over Losman and the passing game are legitimate right now...but I've read that some personnel would rather have Losman over Smith/Rodgers and he has two great targets. Pats are the champs and nobody can overlook them. If all breaks right, the Jets should be a .500 team with a great defense and underwhelming offense. For those overlooking them, Pennington is poised and should adapt well, the Jets do have Justin Miller CB and word is he's looking like a playmaker. They're a good team stuck in a crowded division though.

[pistolwhipped]

One of the Jets dominant faults was preditability on offense. Everyone and their mother knew what play was coming next - or so it seemed. With Mike behind the helm things will certainly change for the better. It also doesn't hurt that they have a quarterback in Pennington who is into studying, preparing and firing up the team. Those are intangible assets that many players just don't possess.

I do agree that yes they were decimated by free agency and are certainly not going to be the same team as last year, however, I think they will be more productive offensively - much more than they were last year and if the defense can put up numbers like last season, or a little worse they should be in good shape.

They will most certainly not be a sub .500 team as some people believe. I honestly cannot see that happening. 8-8 is a legitimate possibility based on the arguments presented here but I don't see them doing worse than that.

I wish you the best of luck with your holdings - whatever you choose to do.

[youtalkfunny]

[ QUOTE ]
I am not sold on Tom Brady being a quality quarterback...

[/ QUOTE ]

It's funny, I was reading this thread, enjoying the give and take...

...then I read that sentence, and my head exploded. I was completely incapable of following the rest of the thread. My circuits were fried.

I know you went on to backpedal from that stance a little...but it was too late. I was completely incapacitated.

Good luck to you, and your Jets.

[Laomedon]

Ok so I am also a Jets fan and therefore biased as well, however...:

We did lose key personnel, Ferguson, Lamont, McKenzie, but at the same time we improved our offense tremendously by picking up Coles. Even though we did lose Kareem, we still have 4/5 of our O-Line coming back which is really good when you think about relatively speaking. Chad WILL be healthy this season and, barring any freak accidents, will almost undoubtedly be able to play for a full season. Derrick Blaylock will be a serviceable backup to Cmart, even if he lacks the power and explosiveness of Lamont. Heimerdingers system is a West-Coast one, albeit West Coast with a mix of deep balls. For anyone who saw Chad's 60-yd TD pass to Santana Moss against the Chargers last season WITH a torn rotator cuff, clearly the guy can get the ball downfield, I'm really not worried about it.

Our defense is solid up front even without Ferguson. Dewayne Robertson is lined up for a monster year. Vilma has a year under his belt and will only get better. The weakest part of our D is our secondary which will hopefully be mostly shored up by signing Ty Law.

Our schedule may be more difficult, but I think our division is weaker this year then last. The Dolphins have no QB, the Bills will be tough, but the major change is the Pats. We can potentially take 1/2 from them, if not 2/2. The biggest "surprise" this year will be the downward spiral of the New England Patriots, you can count on that.

Per Tom Brady... This guy is quintessentially the product of the system created by Belichek and Co. Obviously, as a Jets fan, I straight up hate the Patriots, but describing Brady as anything but a relatively intelligent QB with below-average physical tools is being extremely generous. He responds well to pressure situations, but there can be no debate about this, the Patriots "dynasty" happened because of their superior defense. End of story.

I truly feel as if the Jets are a legitimate play-off team that has the ability to go deep into the postseason. It may sound ballsy, but I'm looking forward to the Pats-Jets games at the end of the season because I'm confident we will win those games.

So, long story short. I don't like your bet. Feel free to make it, but I just don't see the Jets underperforming this year, we're too well-rounded even with our offseason loses to stink it up.

[BK1248]

"I am not sold on Tom Brady being a quality quarterback"

One of the worst statements I have ever read on here and I dont even give a fuq about the Pats.

[arod4276]

FOR a fact. Where do these people come up with this shittt?