AQ hand - Do I need more discipline here?

[Isura]

I still haven't figured out how to play these situations:

Blinds are 40/80 in the first hour of a $20 MTT.

Me (T1800)
BB (T4000)

My read on villain so far is that he's a bit loose and passive. He hasn't shown much aggression yet, but I've seen him call down earlier with small pairs.

I open in early position with AQo for 240. It's folded around to the BB who reraises to 400.

I'm getting over 4:1 on the call, so I call without thinking much.
Flop comes T74 all diamonds (I have the Q of diamonds). Villain checks.

What range of hands do you think villain plays this way? If he's decent he might be trapping with AA and maybe KK. But I think he'd surely bet QQ-JJ and probably fire a continuation bet with AK since he's got double my chips.

I think for a while and push my last 1400 into the pot of 840? Thinking back I think a lot of my outs are couterfeited here: If he has a K or A of diamonds I'm nearly drawing dead. If he has QQ-AA I have very few overcard outs. TT and 77 are also bad. The only hands I'm okay against are JJ, 99-88. During the hand though I gave myself 9 full flush outs, and 4-5 overcard outs and then justified the push to myself since I was almost 50% even if he calls.

Considering all this, how much better a move is to take the free card and get away from the hand on the turn unimproved if we face a bet from villain. I'll still have T1400 if I fold, and tourney has a slow structure and bad players. Thoughts?

[WillMagic]

Your analysis is clearly tainted by the fact that you lost this hand.

I'm pushing here. People just don't slowplay on three-flush boards often enough to make checking correct.

Will

[bruce]

Preflop with pot odds I call, but carefully.

On the flop I check. He has you outchipped almost two to
one. You may have anywhere from zero to six clean outs.
Take the free card and if you don't improve play accordingly. The type of player you describe will rarely fold with a worse hand. The only worse hand he may fold with is AK non diamonds.

Bruce

[durron597]

It's always bizarre when someone reraises preflop and doesn't bet flop. A lot of the time it is a slowplay.

I see no reason not to take the freecard, the only hand he folds here in his range is AK w/o the A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

[A_PLUS]

My problem is

1.)He has enough chips to call if he thinks he 'might' be ahead.

2)Your push looks like a medium pair, AJ+ with a diamond, or a bluff. So he will probably call with the same range.

So, lets say he reraises with 99-AA, AJ+

He is only going to be folding AJ+ with no diamonds, and you probably are about 25ish% equity vs his calling range

So, 840 in the pot

His range
AA-99 (3+6+3+6+6+6) = 30 combos
AK-AJ (12+9+12) = 31 combos, He will call with (8+3+8) = 19 combos.

So he is only folding 12/61 combos or 20% of the time

EV = 20%(2240) + .8[.25(3640)] = 1176

Now the equity range is a guess (I cant figure out how to do specific suits in pokerstove. Also, I definitely thing his reraising is wider and calling range tighter. But you have to move a good bit to make this a clear push

[ekky]

[ QUOTE ]
I see no reason not to take the freecard, the only hand he folds here in his range is AK w/o the A.

[/ QUOTE ]

he is loose and passive. He can have a multitude of holdings here that fold to the jam.

Betting pre flop and betting post flop is the sign of (generally) a reasonable player. the OP gives us no indication that we are facing such a demon here.

[A_PLUS]

I like to think I am reasonable and I am check raise-pushing any made flush, any Ad.

[ekky]

[ QUOTE ]
I like to think I am reasonable and I am check raise-pushing any made flush, any Ad.

[/ QUOTE ]

rite.. but lets not fall into the trap of applying our own betting/raising standards onto our villains.

the OP has already stated the propensity of villain to call down with small pairs... so intuitively this should make us think that our jam has value.

[A_PLUS]

[ QUOTE ]
the OP has already stated the propensity of villain to call down with small pairs... so intuitively this should make us think that our jam has value.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, if he is going to call down with small pairs, we dont jam. We would jam if he had shown a propensity to fold small pairs. We arent a favorite here, so we need F.E. to push, Im not sure we have enough

[ekky]

heh.. I think what i was trying to say is... he will call down with a small pair.. but will he call an all in with the same mark.

If he does... we are in a real flip scenario.. but the OP says he calls down.. not he calls an all-in.

even if we get pathological and say he has a small pair... x amount of time we are coinflop... and (we must have FE) x amount he folds...making it EV attractive... and in this situation.. the x times he folds really doesn't need to be very big to justify such a move.

In these situations.. I tend to think of it as pressing small edges (those small edges needed to get chips and win tournies) but given the villains standards.. it seems like a jam is going to reap more than it sows.

[A_PLUS]

Just b/c he has called down with small pairs before does not make small pairs the only hand is his range.

Yes, if we "know" he has a small pair, I will agree with a push. But we dont know. A high pair is just as likely as a small one, also include overcards (which will leave us in VERY bad shape if he has AK with a diamond).

You have to look at a real range, not one that you like.

So give me what you think is his real range, then figure out what % of time he will fold based on what his hand strength looks like on this flop, especially considering it really looks like we have the hand that we actually do

[ekky]

rite..

its difficult because we cant really give him too much credit for the mini raise.

My guess for a range? heh I rally wouldn't be too confident on an estimation here to be honest.

If he calls down with small pairs... I dont tend to give him too much credit for the min raise.

For fairness.. I prolly give him AK,AQ...AA-----66 (maybe)

Can we apply any folding standards into this if he has shown a propensity to call down (but not all-in) with smaller pairs? i really dont know.. but against this range.. I think we can get a few of these hands to fold.. and we dont seem to be in too bad shape overall against the rest of the hands that call us.

[Isura]

Interesting responses guys. BTW, villain had 88 and called.