Very unique situation

[ChipLeader]

Interesting situation came up, i was playing a SnG with my friend whos trying to learn the game. Hes on a low BR, about 50.00 in his account only playing 10.00 SnGs for now.

Level:6 Blinds(100/200)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 10: Hero ( $420 )
Seat 6: KurtAAAKK ( $5655 )
Seat 9: Janice78 ( $150 )
Seat 4: bootit ( $1775 )
Trny:14241933 Level:6
Blinds(100/200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ 9c 9d ]
Janice78 folds.
Hero folds.
bootit folds.
KurtAAAKK wins 300 chips from the main pot

The fold looks horrible at first glance trying to sneak into money, but there is an important note to make- Janice78 with 150 chips is SITTING OUT. We are guarenteed to make the money by waiting, but will be playing a very shortstack. Assume the BB wont fold anything because its such a small raise to him.

Knowing the money is automatic, who's pushing 99 with a guarenteed call and trying to get some chips and who thinks its better to take the sure thing and a short stack longshot at more money?

Interesting note: Hero had 66 from UTG the hand before and folded that as well. I dont know the math well enough to see what the positive play is, as theres a longshot that the shortstack doubles everytime he is automatically put all in.

[citanul]

Chip,

This isn't unique, has been discussed many times before, and isn't even all that tricky. You should however understand that with your stack as low as it is, it is not impossible for the short stack to beat you, even while sitting out. The short stack is not required to fold when all in on it's blind. Meanwhile, you only have 2 bets behind.

Further, the assumption that the big stacks will autocall you all in is not a great one all the time at the 10+1s, though in this case, even if we assume it is, the stuff in my first paragraph holds.

citanul

ps: i guess i should answer the one question that was in the post: if i knew i was assured the money in this spot, i would fold 99.

[flyingmoose]

This is a very standard fold for me. Doubling up once doesn't really put you back in the hunt for first, and your fold equity is about equal to the chance that the BB missclicks. For what it's worth, I'm also folding 10s and maybe jacks.

Janice is all-in next hand, so the fact that she's away will only come into play if she survives and you get a walk the hand after.

[nate_king1]

[ QUOTE ]

The fold looks horrible at first glance trying to sneak into money, but there is an important note to make- Janice78 with 150 chips is SITTING OUT. We are guarenteed to make the money by waiting, but will be playing a very shortstack. Assume the BB wont fold anything because its such a small raise to him.

Knowing the money is automatic, who's pushing 99 with a guarenteed call and trying to get some chips and who thinks its better to take the sure thing and a short stack longshot at more money?

Interesting note: Hero had 66 from UTG the hand before and folded that as well. I dont know the math well enough to see what the positive play is, as theres a longshot that the shortstack doubles everytime he is automatically put all in.

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you know that folding is automatic? I think I would gamble for 1st in that spot, because others would see that they are guaranteed money and don't want to risk. I would really aggressive(by nature) and you actually have a hand! This should even be a discussion in my books!! LOL Please tell me if I'm an idoit.


GAMBLE FOR 1ST SETTLE FOR 3RD.

[flyingmoose]

[ QUOTE ]
GAMBLE FOR 1ST SETTLE FOR 3RD.

[/ QUOTE ]

That may be your mantra, but I generally go by the policy if "PROFIT BATCH!" I'm not looking to take home as many first place finishes as possible, I'm looking to make as much money as I can. What can I say, I love buying stuff.

If you fold, you have about 18% of the prize pool, according to ICM. If you double through the big blind, your 940 chips gives you about 23.75%.

ICM is not taking into account the fact that the shorty is away, and that she'll be all-in twice before you are. Or that you're at an 11, so your chance of a walk from the BB isn't bad. You're not guaranteed 3rd by folding, but you're equity doesn't increase that much by doulbing. I think this is an autofold.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

The fold looks horrible at first glance trying to sneak into money, but there is an important note to make- Janice78 with 150 chips is SITTING OUT. We are guarenteed to make the money by waiting, but will be playing a very shortstack. Assume the BB wont fold anything because its such a small raise to him.

Knowing the money is automatic, who's pushing 99 with a guarenteed call and trying to get some chips and who thinks its better to take the sure thing and a short stack longshot at more money?

Interesting note: Hero had 66 from UTG the hand before and folded that as well. I dont know the math well enough to see what the positive play is, as theres a longshot that the shortstack doubles everytime he is automatically put all in.

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you know that folding is automatic? I think I would gamble for 1st in that spot, because others would see that they are guaranteed money and don't want to risk. I would really aggressive(by nature) and you actually have a hand! This should even be a discussion in my books!! LOL Please tell me if I'm an idoit.


GAMBLE FOR 1ST SETTLE FOR 3RD.

[/ QUOTE ]

Problem is you aren't gambling for first here. You are gambling for a bigger short stack (does that make sense?). If you fold you are guarenteed third at least (most of the time).

Lets say you push and 70% of the time you win 30% you lose. 70% of the time you have a SLIGHT increase in chips, so you might sneak into higher money if you get lucky again. 30% of the time you lose and kick yourself for not taking the free $20.

Jsut my opinion. Some might gamble, but I wouldnt.

Fold.

[nate_king1]

You may not be getting 1st but 2nd is a posssiblity.

[ChipLeader]

[ QUOTE ]

How do you know that folding is automatic?

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding isnt, calling is. Im minraising all-in, the BB had over half the chips in the tourny (5G+ as i recall, maybe slightly lower). He is auto-calling, if anyone thinks that is debateable (obviously misclicks dont count) then pretend like he has called blind before you even got your cards.

850 chips is a rough comeback even if i double, but entirely possible. Also, i dont know what the odds of the player sitting out winning both forced all ins while i lose my forced all in but im sure it isnt good.

[curtains]

I suspect that folding is correct whether the shortstack is sitting out or not.

[ChipLeader]

[ QUOTE ]

This isn't unique, has been discussed many times before, and isn't even all that tricky.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ive played a lot of SnGs and never run into this. Ive seen players sitting out but the fact that she will be forced allin twice before me and i have .0001% fold equity (credit given for misclicks only) made it very unique to me. Im sorry its not up to your "unique standards", if you know any of the posts or a good search id be happy to refer to them.

[ QUOTE ]
Further, the assumption that the big stacks will autocall you all in is not a great one all the time at the 10+1s,

[/ QUOTE ]
Im minraising the BB, he has over half the chips at the tourny and isnt braindead. Lets assume hes called in the dark because the only time he folds is when his cat jumps on his mouse and misclicks. Regarding the fact that the sitting out player can double up twice while i blind out is part of what made me wonder about the right play, as did the fact that a double still only brings me to a short 850 chips.

[ QUOTE ]

ps: i guess i should answer the one question that was in the post: if i knew i was assured the money in this spot, i would fold 99.

[/ QUOTE ]

So if odds were 100% you fold 99. I do not know the odds of a random hand beating another random hand twice AND my random hand losing to a random hand once, but im sure someone out there has some nifty software to answer this. If i instead win 95% of the time are you folding still? 90%? 80%?
Its really a drag to find a situation i find very tough because ive been exposed to it so seldom and find out that this is a trivially easy hand to play, especially when i still think its complicated even after hearing a top player's analysis.

[ChipLeader]

[ QUOTE ]

I suspect that folding is correct whether the shortstack is sitting out or not.

[/ QUOTE ]

It makes some difference in that the player will be forced all in with a random hand both times, and could be folding AA KK and QQ, then be all in with 27o. He will be force the first time no matter what but has the option of choosing his hand the second time, if he wins the first time, which may well be better than a random hand.

IF I dealt you a hand right now, and then dealt me a hand. We flopped up 5 cards. What are the chances I hold the best hand? 50%/50%.

What are the odds of it happening twice in a row?

1/2 * 1/2 = 1/4
Which is 25% chance he will win two 50/50 shots in a row.

75% of the time you are guarenteed money. This alone make it a reason not to gamble, in my opinion. What if he holds JJ? Ten king? Ace Jack? Sooo many hands can easily beat your nines.

Can you not see why this is an easy fold now?

[AlphaWice]

if called, 99 is more than 40% to lose for sure, on average.

However, the shortie loses 75% of the time as the replier said.

The extra chips doesnt really help you, so the move is clear.

[ChipLeader]

[ QUOTE ]
IF I dealt you a hand right now, and then dealt me a hand. We flopped up 5 cards. What are the chances I hold the best hand? 50%/50%.

What are the odds of it happening twice in a row?

1/2 * 1/2 = 1/4
Which is 25% chance he will win two 50/50 shots in a row.

75% of the time you are guarenteed money.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with your analysis because we have 3 hands that can play at the small stack. If someone gets a callable hand the shortstack may now be up against 2 hands, one of which is better than a random hand.

Why does 75% to win make this a clear fold? Im banking on my 99 beating a random hand, which would allow me to possibly make a run at first or second and a basically assured 3rd. This is too many numbers to be running for me, and i did opt to fold, but there are way more calculations than were given. Odds of me winning, odds of me getting each respecitive place with 400 chips vs 850, odds of the shortstack losing his forced all ins and me losing mine, etc.