¿Bubble Hand? (citanul,microbet,curtains,all the masters--Please Read)

[KramerTM]

Party Poker $33. Blinds are going up in 3 hands.

The hand converter isn't working for me (anyone else getting an internal server error?)

Here was my thinking. I raised the amount I did because it looked as though the small stacks were going out soon and I wanted to be able to get away from it if the big stack moved all-in over the top of me. Unfortunately, he min-raised, and I was baffled.

The more I think about it, is this one of those situations where I should just fold it even though this is somewhat of a monster at this point of the game? Is it even a monster? Folding just seems to go against everything I've learned about lategame aggression. Plus, if I folded, and didn't finish in 1st, then I'd be posting about the same hand asking if I should raise with it.

***** Hand History for Game 2444682383 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $30 Buy-in + $3 Entry Fee Trny:14366846 Level:7 Blinds(150/300) - Friday, July 29, 18:30:06 EDT 2005
Table Table 11992 (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 1: vblifer ( $2078 )
Seat 6: BigKing115 ( $765 )
Seat 8: illusion118 ( $380 )
Seat 9: foldem420111 ( $2692 )
Seat 3: Hero ( $2085 )
Trny:14366846 Level:7
Blinds(150/300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Ac Jc ]
vblifer folds.
Hero raises [800].
BigKing115 folds.
illusion118 folds.
foldem420111 raises [1000].
Your time bank will become active in less than 20 seconds. If you do not want it to be used, please act now.
Hero will be using his time bank for this hand.
Hero calls [500].
** Dealing Flop ** [ Qh, 2d, 5d ]
foldem420111 is all-In [1392]
Your time bank will become active in less than 20 seconds. If you do not want it to be used, please act now.
Hero will be using his time bank for this hand.
Hero???

I'll post the outcome and some additional thoughts later.

P.S. -- Before I get berated... I know I played the hand like a moron. This post is more about finding exactly where I went wrong first, moreso than finding out what I should have done at the end once I erred so terribly. Thanks.

[CrazyPsycho]

I'm pushing that. You only have a little over 6xBB and the blinds are coming. You might even get a small stack to come with a dominated hand.

[KramerTM]

Perhaps this is a classic post of "Why We Push on the Bubble 101", huh? Specifically not to be put in these situations where we have to make a decision to call or fold.

So your feeling is push, and if someone wakes up with a monster, so be it?

[citanul]

The place you went wrong was not pushing as your first action preflop.

Neither before seeing this hand, nor after the "ideal" situation of you raise, he pushes, you fold, are you a sure bet to outlast both short stacks and make the money.

Meanwhile, you've got one of the better hands in poker, not many BBs, and only one guy at the table who can bust you. If he wakes up with a hand that beats you more power to him. If he calls a push with something worse and beats you, same. These things happen.

All putting yourself in a spot where you can "get away from a hand" in most spots does is opens you up to being in really awkward positions if anyone decides to do anything. It just puts you in a bad spot.

citanul

[Shillx]

I've started to play around with +EV pushes from the button and CO with your hand face up. It turns out that with 5 people left and even stacks, you can turn up AJo from the CO and push if you have roughly 9 BB or less. The fact that you have 2 small stacks behind you helps your case if the big stack won't spite call you. So let's just say that he will always call your push no matter what he has...you have to be very careful with your pushes since you need to be about a 70% favorite to play a pot against him. So the tighter he is, the more you push in this spot.

AJo is an obvious push in this case with your cards turned face up. You could push here with about 11 BB behind and have it still be +EV since getting called by a small stack isn't a huge threat to you (eventhough you would like to see them play tight as well).

Brad

[microbet]

Big stack does not want to become a small stack. Your hand is big. I think it is a pretty easy push to begin with.

You planned on folding if big stack pushed. Well, the minraise is worse. You are not in a great spot now. Just thinking of his raise as a push you have to pay 1300 to win about 3100. On the other hand, it looks like he just told you he has a very good hand.

I think it is a fold unless you really think his range includes many more than just a few hands that don't dominate you.

I appreciate being among the 3 "masters" listed, but I'm only the 17th best player in this forum. (so far)

[lastchance]

I push preflop initially, and I don't think it's at all close.

Do you auto-push this hand every time on the bubble?

[citanul]

Weakling,

You're going to need to (quickly) start understanding that there's much more going on at any point than just what your cards are and how many players are left.

I don't even push AA on the bubble every time, if that gets your attention enough to let you know what I'm talking about.

citanul

[DasLeben]

I didn't read anything beyond preflop, but that's a resounding "push you [censored]!" 5-handed, you still need to make plays like this. Remove BigKing115 from the equation, and you get a much more different scenario.

[sng-sam]

[ QUOTE ]
All putting yourself in a spot where you can "get away from a hand" in most spots does is opens you up to being in really awkward positions if anyone decides to do anything. It just puts you in a bad spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Great answer! I think I need to read and re-read this one for awhile.

SAM

[KramerTM]

I'd be willing to bet that NO ONE could guess Villain's cards (disregarding suit, but not disregarding suited/unsuited).

[DasLeben]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd be willing to bet that NO ONE could guess Villain's cards (disregarding suit, but not disregarding suited/unsuited).

[/ QUOTE ]

63o. In fact, 6s3d. What do I win?

[KramerTM]

HAHA. Were you at the table or did you just track down the HH?

[DasLeben]

[ QUOTE ]
HAHA. Were you at the table or did you just track down the HH?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well naturally, I'm just the [censored]. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[KramerTM]

I'm really hoping you're not foldem420111 .

Please tell me you're not foldem420111.

[DasLeben]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm really hoping you're not foldem420111 .

Please tell me you're not foldem420111.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why, is foldem420111 good? /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[ChipLeader]

[ QUOTE ]
Big stack does not want to become a small stack. Your hand is big. I think it is a pretty easy push to begin with.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just wondering because this type of thing comes up often... how much worse could the hand be and youre still pushign everytime (assuming you have a conservative enough image to have some FE, which we already assume.)
AJo still a clear push?
ATs, ATo?
A9s?
KQs?
99?
Im just wondering how bad the hand can be before you are folding it instead of pushing. Since it will probably vary, which ones are on the border? Again, we have to assume a lot about table image and reads here, so we take a very average scenario where you havent pushed much and no one is on the extreme end of calling everything or folding everything but aces.

[curtains]

Your hand is too strong on the cutoff to be ready to fold at any time. You should simply move allin preflop. If someone has a better hand and it holds up, then congratulations to them.

Be very careful of doing this "Ill raise 40% of my stack and fold to a reraise by the big stack". It's almost always very wrong. You should either decide now whether to move allin or to fold. Your hand is way too strong to fold with just 6-7x the BB on the cutoff seat, even with 2 players shortstacked. Anything but moving allin here is just way off base.

[SammyKid11]

Start running ranges of hands in SNGPT from different positions with different chip stacks and you'll start to get a feel for where the pushing opportunities are. You may even start charting out different hand ranges for different situations. I'm still in the process of this myself, but I think it's definitely helping my game.

[ChipLeader]

[ QUOTE ]
Start running ranges of hands in SNGPT from different positions with different chip stacks and you'll start to get a feel for where the pushing opportunities are. You may even start charting out different hand ranges for different situations. I'm still in the process of this myself, but I think it's definitely helping my game.

[/ QUOTE ]

This just tells you whether it is +EV or not.
Who agrees that IN TOURNAMENT PLAY, any +EV push is a good push? I dont, but id like to hear some feedback on this, perhaps if there isnt much input here ill start a thread.

Anyway, not saying this hand isnt a push, just wondering what kind of range, with the two shorties where they are and your stack where it is, that some of the pros (microbet especially sicne i was responding to his reply) are pushing.

[MegaBet]

I thought the "masters" were Gigabet, ZeeJustin, and possibly raptor...

[KramerTM]

They were inherently included in "all the masters." I just spouted off some names that came to mind. Apologies.

[microbet]

Eastbay's application is a calculation of $EV, not EV, using ICM for estimating the real dollar equity in a tournament. I think you will get a very good answer by using it, if you put good ranges in for the people who are acting after you.

Button, on the shortish stack is going to be fairly loose in his calling range. SB, on the tiny stack, is going to be very very loose in his calling range. Unless I noticed something that would indicate otherwise, I would expect BB to be pretty tight here.

Disclaimer (for when Curtains follows this with "I never push XX here, or poker champions always push XX here"): I don't have SNG powertools available at the moment and I haven't been playing today and I think my instincts are much better when I've been playing.

Pushing hands: A8+,A7s,66+,KQs

That seems a little tight, but I don't want to give BB too much credit.

Also, I'm not a pro, and if my job description remains "go to lunch at the Ritz with Skipperbob" I may never become one.

[microbet]

I think Citanul and Curtains are masters.

Gigabet and ZeeJustin would not have replied.

Substituting Raptor for me would have been a good choice, but I can pretty much guarantee you Raptor would have said:

"push. ship it. holla."

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
I think Citanul and Curtains are masters.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sweet!

Ship it.

Sadly, that's all the posting for me for now, so if anyone wants to answer more of the questions in the strategy post tonight, that would be very nice of you all.

citanul

[Scuba Chuck]

There is some serious humor in this post, but it's not the content. It's the subject line.

Scuba

[microbet]

Damn man, I already disavowed being a master, but you don't have to say it is a joke!

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Damn man, I already disavowed being a master, but you don't have to say it is a joke!

[/ QUOTE ]

No worries, I said the same [censored] when they put my name in the subject line. You must be posting a bit lately, lol.