70 hour week, down 6 buy-ins in 1500 hands (low content)

[cjmewett]

Tell me I'm not awful. This is at Full Tilt NL100. Dropped back down because I'm a risk-averse baby (even though I'm LAGgy).

[gulebjorn]

Calling Skeme!!! This should be in the FAQ.

No, you are not by definition awful, variance can cause these kind of downswings. Go through your hand histories. Make sure it's bad luck, not bad playing. Post some hands here. Take a break. Clear your mind from poker. 70 hrs/week is just too much.

[TheWorstPlayer]

If you characterise yourself as LAGgy, you are probably misplaying hands.

[cjmewett]

I've no doubt that I've probably misplayed some hands, but I have something like 20K hands with good results at 50 and 100NL. I'm just looking for moral support.

EDIT: Also, the "LAGgy" bit was something of an exaggeration. In fact, I don't think I can really be characterized as loose, though perhaps by 2+2 standards I may be. I'm just extremely aggressive, which probably results in a LAG image.

[TheWorstPlayer]

Well there is no doubt that you could be a big winner in the game and still drop 6 buys quickly. Variance is a bitch. Good luck.

[cjmewett]

TWP to the rescue again, giving me the iron fist in the velvet glove:

"Your game may suck, but variance sucks a lot too."

This is pretty much exactly what I already know and want to have reaffirmed, so thanks. Apologies for the lack of useful content here, too.

[sourbeaver]

Hard to tell from very little info, but I can tell you that 1500 hands is very very small, and it could happen, especially at 6-max.

Using a sample size of 1500 hands, a SD of 70BB/100 (mine is 45 at full-ring and I'm TIGHT) and an average of -20BB/100 (your 6 buy-in downswing), the 95% interval is:

(-27.71BB , 7.71BB) per 100 hands.

So you could still be a 7BB/100 winner and lose 6 buy-ins in 1500 hands. But I must reiterate that the numbers are so little, these calculations are just about meaningless. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[PokerCat69]

70 hours of play = 1500 hands?

[cjmewett]

Yes, I was quarter-tabling.

Ha, no, this is a 1500 hand downswing at the end of my 70 hour week.

[LethalRose]

maybe 70 hrs is a little too much..you could easily make that up the next week. why post about it...6 buyins is nothing.