Step 5 bubble hand.

[iMsoLucky0]

Table had been real passive. Both of the other two smaller stacks had been trying to hang on to the money and didn't exhibit any super play. The big stack had been real tight, only pushing his real strong hands (open pushing AK and AQ). Phenombot was only player gambling at all.

I am UTG and blinds will cripple me. I like trying to conserve some fold equity here and push. Thoughts?

***** Hand History for Game 2444242012 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $1000 Buy-in + $65 Entry Fee Trny:14364893 Level:6 Blinds(100/200) - Friday, July 29, 16:57:15 EDT 2005
Table Step 5 #983422 (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 8: saffron ( $1030 )
Seat 3: Yahtzee0 ( $695 )
Seat 2: Warma ( $1090 )
Seat 5: PhenomBot ( $2105 )
Seat 9: BlindBOMB ( $5080 )
Trny:14364893 Level:6
Blinds(100/200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Yahtzee0 [ 6h 4c ]
Yahtzee0

I wouldnt have pushed.

Then again, I am a terrible player and can't wint a damn $11 game anyhoo. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[citanul]

looks good.

a) it's possible it's a +ev push just on calling ranges
b) it's certainly higher ev than folding.

citanul

[citanul]

Weakling,

If you're going to post something like "i wouldn't have pushed" at least say why, it will help you and others get better.

citanul

[durron597]

The SB is calling you with any two. But he's pushing any two next hand also. So I dunno, I hate this spot. I think I grit my teeth and fold, hope AA vs. KK happens, and hope for a better hand in the BB.

[adanthar]

I think I fold due to the flatter payout making 4'th look better. This spot does suck, though.

[Newt_Buggs]

[ QUOTE ]
The SB is calling you with any two. But he's pushing any two next hand also.

[/ QUOTE ]
I doubt the SB is calling with any two. As citanul said based on your description of the table its possible that this might even be a +EV push.

[citanul]

but adanthar,

doesn't gambling a little here (the big stack might very well fold since he can still rape the bubble some more if he does) to double up because of the flatter payout schedule make some sense as well? if hero doubles up, he's suddenly in "not shitty" position, which means he can work a little bit, and maybe get into higher than 3rd place, or at least have the possibility of fighting for 3rd/2nd, as opposed to having to hope he gets lucky several times to do so.

citanul

[Matt R.]

I think you have to push here with the BB coming next hand. Give yourself a chance to win the 300 in the pot. And, I still think you have some FE if the blinds both happen to have offsuit trash.

I would probebly fold this. Chances of a call are pretty good, and you can probebly pick up a better hand in the BB. But if you feel the table will fold then push, these spots are so scary /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

[iMsoLucky0]

[ QUOTE ]
The SB is calling you with any two. But he's pushing any two next hand also. So I dunno, I hate this spot. I think I grit my teeth and fold, hope AA vs. KK happens, and hope for a better hand in the BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

The SB is DEFINITELY not calling me with any two, and he certainly isn't pushing any two the next hand either. He had been very tight and didn't seem to understand the bubble concept. He had only pushed twice out of the last 10-12 hands and once he had AK and the other he had AQ.

[Ryendal]

Really interested hand. And would you play it, if we add one another 1000 stack UTG who fold before you. In this case we are no longer in the bubble.
And if not, what would be the minimum hand you would push ?
some Q9+ or even weaker hand ?

I ask that to make me some better idea of the "energy" here or else where. I hope I'm not too curious /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[iMsoLucky0]

[ QUOTE ]
Really interested hand. And would you play it, if we add one another 1000 stack UTG who fold before you. In this case we are no longer in the bubble.
And if not, what would be the minimum hand you would push ?
some Q9+ or even weaker hand ?

I ask that to make me some better idea of the "energy" here or else where. I hope I'm not too curious /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I would definitely fold this if there was another 1k stack in between me and the blinds. I would have another to hand to look at to push with that would most definitely be better than 4 6.

I'm not sure the exact range I would push with, I'd have to see the exact stacks and situation. I'm sure it would be with at least the top half of hands and maybe even more than that. I mean there's no way I'm folding 78s or J9o or a hand that good there.

I just talked to citanul on AIM, and he said this "i like push more than fold and pray almost always, at least then you feel like you made a decision." And I agree with this very much. I'd almost always rather push and take my chances than wait for the blinds and call due to pot odds.

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]

I just talked to citanul on AIM, and he said this "i like push more than fold and pray almost always, at least then you feel like you made a decision." And I agree with this very much. I'd almost always rather push and take my chances than wait for the blinds and call due to pot odds.


[/ QUOTE ]

I agree because of the tightness of the BB.

Also, do you talk to every single member of this forum on AIM?

[adanthar]

This is pretty much a 'take the ICM and then correct it' math problem that I haven't really done or thought much about because I don't play these, but my gut feeling is that the flatter payout is a good reason to (try to) fold marginal hands and slide into fourth exactly because second and third aren't worth as much comparatively.

What's the payout, 45/25/18/12? If you push and are called which is usually gonna happen, you've a 33% chance of being worth around 18, so...yeah, I think you fold this. But it's a tough spot, pushing doesn't really suck or anything, etc.

[Scuba Chuck]

These are my thoughts.

Big blinds is:
Seat 9: BlindBOMB ( $5080 )

You pushing is a guaranteed 2:1. So if he is a sound player, he is likely to call. If he is a donkey, I think he's likely to call as well.

Next, given that bigstack is a tight SB on the next hand (or perhaps reasonable is the correct terminology), he could/might provide some coverage from the other players. Furthermore, your stack is so desperate, that you likely won't see a steal attempt without a real hand. If things play out according to plan, the next hand will be folded to SB who just completes (maybe even folds). You decide how to play from here.

This is how I would have rationalized your hand.

Scuba

[iMsoLucky0]

The 5080 stack was the SB, Warma, the 1090 stack was the BB. I didn't expect a call from any player without a decent hand. Noone seemed like they would take the nice odds given on this pot from my push with random cards.

[microbet]

Rock and a hard place, but if you fold and pray what are the chances this passive table answers your prayer and folds around? Even the aggro player will be reluctant to try and steal the BB from a short stack that will likely call.

[psyduck]

hand is a little too weak to do this I think. hope the SB open-completes next hand and you can go from there.

this is a really horrible spot though