Math problem with QQ?

[jason_t]

UTG+1 is a 10/2.4/1.1 mouse with a WtSD of 33.9% after 444 hands; MP3 is a maniac. I am near certain that MP3 doesn't have an A; it's the mouse that I am worried about. I haven't been at the table that long; I don't know what my image is to the mouse. What's your play? I think this can be solved with some math but at any rate want to hear your thoughts on check/raising here.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: I am SB with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">I raise</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls, Button calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">I bet</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, Button folds, I call, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (9 BB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
I check, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, I....

[sean c]

Why didn't you go for a check/raise on the flop?

[Brunger]

If there was ever a chance to squeeze out the best hand to isolate a maniac this is it. I think that I would just fold as you need quite a parlay. The tight guy to fold out and the maniac not to have and Ace or not draw out with whatever he has and you will have to invest 3bb in a 10bb pot.

[W. Deranged]

Why do you like a check-raise here? Hero raised out of the small blind here. His opponents will read some strength. His opponents may not have an A, and on an A high, fairly drawless flop, some opponents will likely drop on the flop. Check-raising the flop. With only the K overcards to worry about, I don't think extra tough hand protection measures are required here. A bet here just seems a bit more straightforward.

I also like a bet on the flop more because I feel that on this board, a raise is not that likely to come from anything less than an A (edit: except for from the maniac). A flop check-raise may actually get our hero tied to putting big bets in on later streets against a medium A, which would suck.

[W. Deranged]

Jason,

Why not try to go for a squeeze here on the flop? I think bet-3bet against the maniac could rule here, as it might encourage the mouse to fold a medium A (maybe even AJ or AQ if he's a small girl child/giant clown shoe).

I'd rather try such a move on the flop. If I get played with in multiple directions I'm plenty willing to let the hand go on the turn without having to invest the big bucks.

[blumpkin22]

It's tough to make a calculation that is at all rigorous. But you were going to try, I'd factor in the possibility of the BB waking up with a hand also (e.g., 87).

I think it makes the most sense to pick a better spot to take the maniac's $$. However, I also might not be able to resist in this spot...

[SmileyEH]

If you're going to lead you need to 3bet. If the mouse still calls then you know you're beat and can checkfold unimproved.

-SmileyEH

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
If you're going to lead you need to 3bet. If the mouse still calls then you know you're beat and can checkfold unimproved.

[/ QUOTE ]

Once the mouse calls on the flop, it's fairly like that he has me beat. It's unlikely that he's limping UTG+1 with 78s so my concerns are 66/99 and Ax hands. I don't want to put 3-bets in on the flop when I'm likely behind. The question is how likely is it that he just has a weak one-pair hand that I can fold with a turn check/raise?

[KDawgCometh]

jason, the real question here is, from your observations, can you make him fold a weak ace by CRing the maniacs turn bet. If you don't think you can, then I would fold the hand right here. I do think that the mouse would get aggreesive with a set, so its them having a weak ace that is the main question, IMO

[Jake (The Snake)]

I don't really agree with the 3-bet the flop idea since we can do the same thing on the turn and make it more expensive for the mouse.

If we assume MP3 is never ahead here and BB will fold, than we need to fold the mouse 1/5 times to be profitable. Since MP3 and BB may stick around sometimes, it's probably more like 1/3 times.

I don't know how often a 33% wtsd player folds with an ace here, but I would guess it's probably very close.

[blumpkin22]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd rather try such a move on the flop. If I get played with in multiple directions I'm plenty willing to let the hand go on the turn without having to invest the big bucks.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is exactly why a move on the turn works and jamming the flop does not.

[W. Deranged]

True. My feeling is that if the mouse is as weak as he is being made out to be, the flop move might be almost as likely to work and slightly less expensive, hence being a better "value" overall.

But I certainly see the arguments for the turn move. If it works its really, really hot.

[shant]

After calling with an A on the flop, a mousey opponent is still going to call the 3-bet. They're like OK I have an A, still got some cards coming, let's see if I improve on the turn. When they get to a blankish turn, and now some guy CHECKRAISES THE BIG BET STREET BOOOOOOOOOM they stop thinking one pair is good and they're out.

So I think checkraise turn &gt; 3-bet flop.

[SmileyEH]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you're going to lead you need to 3bet. If the mouse still calls then you know you're beat and can checkfold unimproved.

[/ QUOTE ]

Once the mouse calls on the flop, it's fairly like that he has me beat. It's unlikely that he's limping UTG+1 with 78s so my concerns are 66/99 and Ax hands. I don't want to put 3-bets in on the flop when I'm likely behind. The question is how likely is it that he just has a weak one-pair hand that I can fold with a turn check/raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

3betting is more consistent with the hand you are representing. A turn checkraise looks exactly like what you are trying to do (shut out a better hand). I think if you 3bet there is a very good chance he folds an ace. A turn checkraise is also more expensive.

-SmileyEH

[callmedonnie]

I like the 3 bet there also as calling down w/ maniac looks like a great scenario. If you successfully get HU w/ maniac, yo u lead turn?

If raised do you call down?

Unrelated: Did the converter get fixed because I have been having problems with it lately? Something I should know?

[VBM]

on the surface, assuming:
1. UTG+1, based on your read, is holding Ax. given his stats, he likely holds AT-AK, yes?
2. MP3 holds trash or 2nd best and you are likely to either beat him in showdown or fold him on the turn.

x is probability you win, ie. fold UTG+1's better hand, if you raise
1-x probability you lose, ie. UTG+1 calls w/ a better hand, if you raise.

10x + -2(1-x)
2 = 12X
X = 2/12 = 16.666

so if X &gt; 17%, raise.

i think there are 2 more interesting questions here:
1. does UTG+1's low aggression level here mean that we believe UTG+1 will tend to call down? or fold? fwiw, i think its the former. that slightly worsens the raise option.
2. if UTG+1 does call a raise and we're UI on the river, do we fold for 1? what if we're 3bet on the turn and by whom?

[gaming_mouse]

Does the mouse like coldcalling? If not, I raise the turn. Otherwise fold.

Also, there would be no shame -- indeed, there would be glory! -- in folding to the flop raise. But you can make a thin call with implied odds, which I'm guessing was your thought.

gm

[private joker]

[ QUOTE ]

3betting is more consistent with the hand you are representing. A turn checkraise looks exactly like what you are trying to do (shut out a better hand).

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with this. Sometimes I'll play AK/AQ with Jason's line -- just call the flop raise and c/r the turn. It can be the best way to protect TPTK against weak draws in a large multi-way pot.

[SippinSoma]

How can you be so sure MP doesn't have an ace here? What hands could he have? What the hell are you doing back at 2/4?

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
How can you be so sure MP doesn't have an ace here? What hands could he have?

[/ QUOTE ]

The maniac would have raised any ace preflop. On the flop, he could have middle pair, bottom pair, a pocket pair or absolutely nothing.