TT Hand, Play Along [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

WSOP Bound

07-29-2005, 02:19 PM

I've got questions about my play on almost all streets, but will post it out there piece-by-piece so i don't influence the answers for each.

Stats shown in (VP$IP / PFR / PFAR # hands)

UTG is TA-P (18.33% / 8.33 / .73 60 hands)
UTG+1 LP-P (54.0% / 2.0 / 1.13 50 hands)
MP1 TA-P (13.5% / 7.56 / 1.67 116 hands)
MP3 LP-P (66.67% / 0.0 / 0.0 27 hands) *
Button (42.86% / 7.14 / 3 14 hands)
SB (62.5% / 31.25 / .92 16 hands).

*Have seen MP3 play pocket kings and a flopped 2nd-nut flush without finding a reason to bet/raise on any street

Ultimate Bet 0.05/0.10 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG+1 calls, MP1 raises, 1 fold, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Button calls, SB 3-bets, Hero ???

There has been a lot of action in front of me and I can't be convinced that I have the bast hand. But there is a lot of money out there, is this a standard call? What hands ranges are we putting each player on? (I'd comment on the hand ranges, but this hands took place last night and I'm afraid that at this point my opinion would be skewed by the results) If we call this are we playing purely for set value?

MrWookie47

07-29-2005, 02:27 PM

I call. The pot is big, and you're holding the 5th best hand in hold em. You're easily getting the implied odds necessary to play for a set, and there's a nonzero chance you currently have the best hand. You're also interested to see if MP caps. That will make your postflop decisions that much easier.

McGahee

07-29-2005, 02:29 PM

word up homie

p.s. - I like it when people skip PF when they do these play-alongs

benkath1

07-29-2005, 02:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
MP1 TA-P (13.5% / 7.56 / 1.67 116 hands)

[/ QUOTE ]

When I see this I'm thinking strong. AA-TT AK-AJs

[ QUOTE ]
MP3 LP-P (66.67% / 0.0 / 0.0 27 hands)

[/ QUOTE ]

cold calling. hmmmm. 66.67, I'm almost thinking any two.

[ QUOTE ]
Button (42.86% / 7.14 / 3 14 hands)

[/ QUOTE ]

ditto.

[ QUOTE ]
SB (62.5% / 31.25 / .92 16 hands).

[/ QUOTE ]

Looks like a maniac. Without any other information, I'd give him a face card or low PP.

Me being the poor player that I am, I'd cap this and pray for the set. What the hell, If you are going to hit it, hit it big.

JKDStudent

07-29-2005, 03:01 PM

Eh. I'm calling here just to see if MP1 will cap or not.

imported_The Vibesman

07-29-2005, 03:08 PM

I'd call, see if MP1 caps, if he does we may be playing for a set but otherwise I would just be mindful of any overcards falling. I really don't understand PT stats, I don't have PT, but is that saying SB raises about 4 times as much preflop as the average person at the table? If that is accurate I'm not worried about his raise at all.

MrWookie47

07-29-2005, 03:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
word up homie

p.s. - I like it when people skip PF when they do these play-alongs

[/ QUOTE ]

I usually do, too, but this preflop decision isn't quite as obvious as some. I don't mind it here.

Fantam

07-29-2005, 03:24 PM

I would call this and perhaps even cap preflop.

MP1 looks pretty tight, so I would imagine he could be on either a high pocket pair AA-TT or AK or AQ. If he is position aware then he could be on a wider range of hands, such as KQ,AJ,ATs,KJs etc.

The reason I might cap is because SB looks a bit wild with those stats (although 16 hands is not much of a sample size).

Apart from flopping a set, I would be looking for a flop that was all undercards to my TT and hoping that both MP1 and SB only had overcards.

Redd

07-29-2005, 04:33 PM

If we were in position, I could cap it to isolate the LAG. Being OOP, getting a discount, and curious to see what the PFR does (we're not really concerned about the guy that's raised 5 of the past 16 hands yet), I call this for information, getting odds to improve, and possibly being best.

baronzeus

07-29-2005, 04:35 PM

I cap here 100% of the time.

fizzleboink

07-29-2005, 04:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I cap here 100% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wouldn't it be better to just call and see if there's a cap by someone else? If there is, you'll know you're probably up against a higher pocket pair and you'll know that you have to hit a set to continue (apart from AKs I guess).

WSOP Bound

07-29-2005, 05:00 PM

This was part of my thought process. I think that this is pretty clearly a hand that we want to stay in, but wether we cap it or just call is a bit more up in the air.

Also when I've seen these play-alongs before it's been a very respected player helping us newbies out with a hand that they thought was a good example. In this case I am a newbie who has several questions about what seemed to me to be an interesting hand. One of my questions was how to handle this hand preflop.

WSOP Bound

07-29-2005, 05:02 PM

Why would we cap? I do see an aspect that a cap is likely anyways and we will certainly call it, but I'd like to see who it is that has a strong enough hand that they cap it themselves. Of course the other possibility is that it just gets called and we know that nobody was willing to cap it.

WSOP Bound

07-29-2005, 05:07 PM

I decided to call the flop and it gets capped by MP1. So now we have:

Preflop: Hero is BB with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG+1 calls, MP1 raises, 1 fold, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Button calls, SB 3-bets, Hero calls, UTG calls, Dr calls, MP1 caps, MP3 calls, Button folds, SB calls, Hero calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (29 SB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif (6 players)
SB checks, Hero ???

Originally I called and was playing for set value, but this pot is big and I have an overpair. What's the line on this flop?

baronzeus

07-29-2005, 05:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Why would we cap? I do see an aspect that a cap is likely anyways and we will certainly call it, but I'd like to see who it is that has a strong enough hand that they cap it themselves. Of course the other possibility is that it just gets called and we know that nobody was willing to cap it.

[/ QUOTE ]

8% PFR is still a very wide range, and you are ahead of most of it, especially if they are sharing high cards (like AQ vs AK or something). On another note, just calling only gives you a better read on one player: the first raiser in. While it's good to have a decent idea of what the EP raiser has, since you are ahead of most of his hands, throw in a cap for value if nothing else.

Plus, if you just call, you have to c/f any flop with an over, which pretty much sucks.

baronzeus

07-29-2005, 05:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I decided to call the flop and it gets capped by MP1. So now we have:

Preflop: Hero is BB with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG+1 calls, MP1 raises, 1 fold, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Button calls, SB 3-bets, Hero calls, UTG calls, Dr calls, MP1 caps, MP3 calls, Button folds, SB calls, Hero calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (29 SB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif (6 players)
SB checks, Hero ???

Originally I called and was playing for set value, but this pot is big and I have an overpair. What's the line on this flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is one of the reasons I cap. Now you still have no idea if you're beat, since AA-JJ as well as AK and possibly AQs are all in his range. If you had capped, you could bet here, and re-evaluate if raised by MP1 or LP raiser. When someone raises a preflop capper on a raggy board, he usually has the goods.

WSOP Bound

07-29-2005, 05:13 PM

Am I just thinking weak-tight if I want to call because if I don't catch my set and the flop has overs than my hand is pretty much sunk with this action? The way I'm seeing it is that a lot of the big cards have to be in play given this action. Granted I doubt that the flop will ever be an auto-fold because in most cases I will be getting proper odds to see the turn with my two-outer if I miss the flop.

WSOP Bound

07-29-2005, 05:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This is one of the reasons I cap. Now you still have no idea if you're beat, since AA-JJ as well as AK and possibly AQs are all in his range. If you had capped, you could bet here, and re-evaluate if raised by MP1 or LP raiser. When someone raises a preflop capper on a raggy board, he usually has the goods.

[/ QUOTE ]

Originally I wasn't quite following the cap logic, but I think I see that here. When this situation comes up that there is no way that big cards (i.e AQs, AK, etc...) connected to this flop we have represented a big pair (in most opponents minds probably even bigger than TT) and a raise most likely means that it doesn't scare him too much. Which gives us a pretty good read putting him somewhere in the QQ-AA range most likely.

This is something I may have to reconsider in the future.

deception5

07-29-2005, 05:24 PM

bozlax

07-29-2005, 05:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Originally I called and was playing for set value, but this pot is big and I have an overpair. What's the line on this flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

You also just called preflop to see what MP1 would do, and he capped. That narrows his range of hands significantly, and the only one you're ahead of at this point is AKs. Your options, as I see them, are check/call and check/fold. You don't want to bet as MP1 is likely to raise (1.67 postflop AF isn't that passive), and you don't want the field thinned, and I don't think you want to check/raise, as MP1 was the preflop capper.

So, now the rubber meets the road. If MP1 bets and there isn't a raise you're getting at least 30:1 immediate odds, probably better, so there's no way you can fold. You and MP1 are the only aggressors, so I say check/call, but if somebody else wakes up and raises I start to worry about 99 for the boat and strongly consider folding (I probably wouldn't, but I'd consider it).

DeathDonkey

07-29-2005, 05:52 PM

If I could show this hand down for 2.5 BB I would be ok with that. On the other hand if it will cost much more than that I probably have odds to chase a 2 outer. Check, find a way to see the turn, then decide what to do. I do not cap preflop.

-DeathDonkey

bozlax

07-29-2005, 06:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Now you still have no idea if you're beat, since AA-JJ as well as AK and possibly AQs are all in his range.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with this. You actually know that there's a strong chance you're beat (24 ways of making AA-JJ vs. 12 ways of making AK/AQs), and if you're not beat MP1 has clean outs to draw out on you. I think with a pot this big you have to stay in it, but I don't see Hero having a reasonable chance of winning UI, and you want to get to showdown as cheaply as possible.

baronzeus

07-29-2005, 06:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I do not cap preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm very surprised.

Edit: Especially since you have far more than the 14% equity you need in order to do this just for value. (Well, not far more ,probably 15-16%). Also, you have enormous implied odds if you hit your set.

MrWookie47

07-29-2005, 06:04 PM

Agreed. I wouldn't mind showing this hand down for 2.5 BB in this ridiculous pot. Hero will almost have odds to cold call this flop on set odds alone, especially since his implied odds are great.

I still don't like capping preflop. If you're ahead of AK, you aren't exactly going to be able to fold him if he whiffs, and you're still just as likely to be behind JJ-AA. I like knowing that I'm very likely drawing to 2 outs here.

baronzeus

07-29-2005, 06:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Now you still have no idea if you're beat, since AA-JJ as well as AK and possibly AQs are all in his range.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with this. You actually know that there's a strong chance you're beat (24 ways of making AA-JJ vs. 12 ways of making AK/AQs), and if you're not beat MP1 has clean outs to draw out on you. I think with a pot this big you have to stay in it, but I don't see Hero having a reasonable chance of winning UI, and you want to get to showdown as cheaply as possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why are there only 12 ways to make AK/AQs?

bozlax

07-29-2005, 06:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Why are there only 12 ways to make AK/AQs?

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right. I was misapplying pair math. 20 ways to make AK/AQs. Making it 6:5 you're behind, instead of 2:1.

I'm actually thinking it's about 9:8 because with a player this tight I'm pulling JJ and AQs out of his range of hands. Regardless, the chances are that you're behind once he caps preflop, and I don't think it'll help you much if you capped instead of him.

baronzeus

07-29-2005, 06:19 PM

Another thing to note here is that with 7 people in the pot you should widen your capping range. I would probably cap almost any pocket pair here the more I think about it, as well as some suited combinations.

WSOP Bound

07-29-2005, 06:21 PM

I tend to like the check/call line as well. We can't be convinced that we have the best hand here, most likely we are second or even third best. That being said this would have to get three bet before it comes back to us before the implied odds indicate that we should fold this two-outer.

bozlax

07-29-2005, 06:32 PM

True, but are you going to give a player with a 13.5% VPIP credit for doing that, when there was only one limper before his initial early-position raise? That also increases the chances that there are overcards to your pair in play, while decreasing that chances that will be able to fold anyone.

I still say Hero shouldn't cap this preflop OOP, and should be trying to get to showdown for as little of his money going into the pot as possible.

baronzeus

07-29-2005, 06:34 PM

No, I'm saying that hero here should cap for shear value.

bozlax

07-29-2005, 06:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I tend to like the check/call line as well. We can't be convinced that we have the best hand here, most likely we are second or even third best. That being said this would have to get three bet before it comes back to us before the implied odds indicate that we should fold this two-outer.

[/ QUOTE ]

Two things: first, implied odds are used to indicate that you should continue in a hand, not fold. Second, even if it's 3 back to you on the flop, you'll be getting better than 10:1 to cold-call with 2 cards to come. It'd have to be capped back to you before the immediate odds would indicate that you should fold, but then the implied odds may well indicate that you should call.

bozlax

07-29-2005, 06:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
No, I'm saying that hero here should cap for shear value.

[/ QUOTE ]

The value of a haircut? /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

I'm not sure I want to value-cap TT OOP against a TAG EP PFR (yikes, I feel like I'm back in the Army). The only things in his preflop raising range that you're ahead of are AK/AKs/AQs (he's uber-tight), and all the extra players narrow your equity edge considerably against those hands.

This also seems to contradict your earlier posts where I thought you were capping preflop for the strategic benefit it would give you on the flop (being able to bet out).

WSOP Bound

07-29-2005, 06:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Two things: first, implied odds are used to indicate that you should continue in a hand, not fold. Second, even if it's 3 back to you on the flop, you'll be getting better than 10:1 to cold-call with 2 cards to come. It'd have to be capped back to you before the immediate odds would indicate that you should fold, but then the implied odds may well indicate that you should call.

[/ QUOTE ]

On the first part I worded that reply very poorly, my sincere apologies. I understand that implied odds are used to determine when to call despite the immediate odds indicating that you should fold.

For the second part this is a concept that I have always been very unclear on. Is this not a situation where I need to look at the odds to hit my hand on the next card? I do indeed have 10.8:1 odds of hitting my hand by the river, but my odds of hitting it on the next card are ~22:1. I may or may not get the right odds on the turn. If an overcard comes up on the turn for example and it comes back to me raised I'm not sure that I will be able to call this one profitably since my odds are certainly cut down and I can only count maybe 1 out at that point since tens full may not win this one even if I do fill on the river. Although I'm certainly a bit more apt to make a loose call in this pot than I am in most, it seems that I may end up in a fold situation on the turn somewhat easily here.

WSOP Bound

07-29-2005, 07:01 PM

Am I giving up that much value by simply calling preflop? I understand the potential strategic value of capping and leading a non-scary flop. However, as far as value is concerned I'm going to hit a set or better about 1 in 7 times. Then there are those times that an opponent is playing a higher pocket pair and also hits their set and we are probably looking at something just slightly worse than that, but can probably ignore due to those rare times where I can win this UI. Given this am I really extracting value here? What am I missing?

bozlax

07-29-2005, 07:06 PM

With a hand as strong as TT in a gi-hu-normous pot like this, you should be planning to show it down (remember, there's a decent chance your hand is best), so I don't think you are looking at this from the standpoint of just the next card. If I'm in your shoes, I'm doing everything I can to get to a showdown for 2.5BB, and only altering that in extraordinary circumstances. You also can't forecast flop/turn action simply from the preflop action. MP1 may have had a stroke and passed out on his mouse with it hovering over "raise," who knows? If you check and it's 2 or 3 back to you, then you can decide that it's going to be too expensive to see showdown with TT.

WSOP Bound

07-29-2005, 07:17 PM

Fair enough, I see where that's coming from.

I certainly agree that I want to see this showdown and I want to see it as cheaply as possible. I also see that there is a possibility that a low flop and the previous action actually has a chance of shutting down the action if everyone happens the be playing overcards here, but is afraid that everyone else has pocket pairs.

DeuceKicker

07-29-2005, 07:27 PM

I originally wrote a book detailing the arguments for and against a pre-flop cap, but Ed Miller doesn't need the competition, so suffice it to say I think the pre-flop action and the texture of this flop are good examples of why a pre-flop call is good.

Now it's time to think about how to take down this ginormous pot. You would have preferred SB to bet, but he didn't so bet and hope MP1 raises.

WSOP Bound

07-29-2005, 07:28 PM

Seems like it's time for the next installment /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I decide to check, it just didn't seem wise to bet here at the time. The action follows:

Ultimate Bet 0.05/0.10 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG+1 calls, MP1 raises, 1 fold, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Button calls, SB 3-bets, Hero calls, UTG calls, Dr calls, MP1 caps, MP3 calls, Button folds, SB calls, Hero calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (29 SB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif (6 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 bets, MP1 folds, MP3 calls, SB calls, Hero ???

Interesting, guess we won't be focusing on MP1 any longer. Any thoughts on what UTG+1 has here?

WSOP Bound

07-29-2005, 07:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Now it's time to think about how to take down this ginormous pot. You would have preferred SB to bet, but he didn't so bet and hope MP1 raises.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess I'm a little confused here, can you please help clarify. If I bet here and hope that MP1 bets I am hoping to put two bets in here where I could maybe get away with one. Best case scenario as I see it: I bet, UTG folds, UTG+1 folds and MP1 raises. The remainder of the field is getting >15:1 odds to call and can profitably call with as little as one overcard. A bet isn't effectively protecting my hand and I can't be certain that I have any real value to be betting here. Please educate me! What am I missing here.

It seems to me that this hand is going to a showdown no matter what I do. My best bet to win this one seems to be to see some more cards as cheaply as possibly and pray that I pick up another ten somewhere along the lines.

baronzeus

07-29-2005, 07:46 PM

There is no way to know, except that it is good.

Fantam

07-29-2005, 07:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I originally wrote a book detailing the arguments for and against a pre-flop cap, but Ed Miller doesn't need the competition, so suffice it to say I think the pre-flop action and the texture of this flop are good examples of why a pre-flop call is good.

Now it's time to think about how to take down this ginormous pot. You would have preferred SB to bet, but he didn't so bet and hope MP1 raises.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like reading poker books. Whats the name of your book ?

Fantam

07-29-2005, 07:59 PM

Hmmm looks like MP1 may have folded overcards without realising that he had odds to call.

My guess is that UTG+1 either has something like A9,K9 or Q9 or else he has trip 4's. These players are loose so he could have been calling preflop with almost anything and with 5 other players to the flop he could easily have either a 4 or 9.

WSOP Bound

07-29-2005, 08:18 PM

I call and here we go to the turn!

Ultimate Bet 0.05/0.10 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG+1 calls, MP1 raises, 1 fold, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Button calls, SB 3-bets, Hero calls, UTG calls, Dr calls, MP1 caps, MP3 calls, Button folds, SB calls, Hero calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (29 SB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif (6 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 bets, MP1 folds, MP3 calls, SB calls, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (17 BB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif (5 players)
SB checks, Hero ????

The beautiful ten drops. Now what's the line?

Fantam

07-29-2005, 08:53 PM

UTG+1 likes his hand and so apparently did all the other callers and you just missed your draw! /images/graemlins/wink.gif

Or thats what you would like them all to believe. I think I would go for the check/raise here, because so far you havent represented any strength with your hand at all.

Trap them for lots of extra bets! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

MrWookie47

07-29-2005, 09:25 PM

Yeah, I like the check/raise. If UTG+1 doesn't bet, then hopefully one of the other guys who was slowplaying a four will.

bozlax

07-29-2005, 09:30 PM

Bet and raise until your mouse finger falls off.

bozlax

07-29-2005, 09:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I like the check/raise. If UTG+1 doesn't bet, then hopefully one of the other guys who was slowplaying a four will.

[/ QUOTE ]

You haven't showed any strength at all in this hand, so far. You bet out and the guy with the 4 says, "He just paired his ten," and raises you. The guy with the 9 says, "F**k, he just paired his ten, but I've got outs to pair my ace in this ginormous pot, so I'll call 2 cold." And it goes from there.

Edit: I seriously think you're giving them too much credit for worrying about what you might have. The only guy with stats that indicate he knows what he's doing caught a bus on the flop. The rest see a big pot, and are going to, "do what they can to win it," by betting and raising until they turn blue.

MrWookie47

07-29-2005, 09:38 PM

If some guy has a 4, he'll 3bet probably, but if there's only a 9 and no 4's, then a check/raise easily gets the most money in the pot.

Edit: Betting out will kill our action from the 9's, but they might call one more after a check/raise.

bozlax

07-29-2005, 09:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If some guy has a 4, he'll 3bet probably, but if there's only a 9 and no 4's, then a check/raise easily gets the most money in the pot.

Edit: Betting out will kill our action from the 9's, but they might call one more after a check/raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

But if the guy to your left has the 4, then you're going to check, he'll bet, everybody calls, you raise, and he re-raises, still facing them with 2. I don't think you're doing yourself any favors by getting cute at this late point in the game. Just represent that you have tens and fours.

WSOP Bound

07-29-2005, 09:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I like the check/raise. If UTG+1 doesn't bet, then hopefully one of the other guys who was slowplaying a four will.

[/ QUOTE ]

You haven't showed any strength at all in this hand, so far. You bet out and the guy with the 4 says, "He just paired his ten," and raises you. The guy with the 9 says, "F**k, he just paired his ten, but I've got outs to pair my ace in this ginormous pot, so I'll call 2 cold." And it goes from there.

Edit: I seriously think you're giving them too much credit for worrying about what you might have. The only guy with stats that indicate he knows what he's doing caught a bus on the flop. The rest see a big pot, and are going to, "do what they can to win it," by betting and raising until they turn blue.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like this line of thought...

My original thought, was just to jam the pot with as many chips as I could possibly get in there. It probably is a good position to attempt a c/r, but if this gets checked around now that I have the nut fullhouse. I'm going to have to throw the laptop accross the room (and that has got to be very -EV). And yes I know it's not really the nuts since 44 has me beat, but if someone has 44 in this hand than I better lose an ***load of chips.

Betting out will still likely get raised by anyone who has a 4 or an overpair. If their is no 4 or overpair it seems likely that the ten will make anyone with a 9 think twice about betting. Like I said, I think I like it.

07-29-2005, 09:57 PM

Grunch Post:

It's close, but I think I'd Fold. Calling 3 cold after a raise by super tight MP1 is just scarey. He proabbly has higher pair, but could have 2 overcards. And there could be a raise behind you.

As far as the others go, I'd put them on any 2. SB seems like a maniac who'd raise with anything, and MP3 could have AA or Q2o. If it wasn't for MP1, I'd call or maybe even cap.

WSOP Bound

07-29-2005, 10:13 PM

The discussion about wether the line is to bet out or c/r is interesting. Seems that it's close, but I feel like it's somewhat possible that the C/R line backfires on me and this thing gets checked through. The turn gave me the big guns and it seemed like it was time attempt to dig in and go to war with UTG+1 and hope that everyone else stuck around for the ride.

So I bet out and everyone calls. Well, the raising war didn't occur but at least it didn't get checked through.

Ultimate Bet 0.05/0.10 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG+1 calls, MP1 raises, 1 fold, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Button calls, SB 3-bets, Hero calls, UTG calls, Dr calls, MP1 caps, MP3 calls, Button folds, SB calls, Hero calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (29 SB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif (6 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 bets, MP1 folds, MP3 calls, SB calls, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (17 BB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif (5 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls, SB calls.

River: (22 BB) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif (5 players)
SB checks, Hero ???

Final Pot: 28 BB

Is there any choice but to bet out here? It seems that the same logic as I used on the turn still applies, but now I have no idea where I would expect a bet from. And again I don't want to waste a prefectly good laptop by throwing it accross the room because this gets checked through. Granted my turn logic could have certainly been wrong, it certainly didn't work out quite as well as I wanted.

07-29-2005, 10:14 PM

OK, Grunch Part 2 (Looks like I was outvoted unananously on part 1, but I've always been a bit too tight):

I bet out here, expecting a raise from MP1 that might get some chasers to fold. The pot is hugh and the flop is very good for you, but you still could have 3rd best hand.

Now to see what everyone else says.

WSOP Bound

07-29-2005, 10:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
OK, Grunch Part 2 (Looks like I was outvoted unananously on part 1, but I've always been a bit too tight):

I bet out here, expecting a raise from MP1 that might get some chasers to fold. The pot is hugh and the flop is very good for you, but you still could have 3rd best hand.

Now to see what everyone else says.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this may have come up already in the discussion, but I can't seem to find where it is. The premise of betting out to protect your hand when you expect a possible raise from your left doesn't seem to apply here. Even if that works to the best that you can possibly imagine and you bet, UTG raises, UTG+1 re-raises and MP1 caps just about any draw can cold call the cap and draw out getting 9.75:1 minimum (even better if there was already a call ahead of them). I still fail to see how this protects our hand at all.

WSOP Bound

07-29-2005, 11:36 PM

I posted the first action of the river previously, but there really doesn't seem to be much of interest in the river of this hand.

Ultimate Bet 0.05/0.10 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG+1 calls, MP1 raises, 1 fold, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Button calls, SB 3-bets, Hero calls, UTG calls, Dr calls, MP1 caps, MP3 calls, Button folds, SB calls, Hero calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (29 SB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif (6 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 bets, MP1 folds, MP3 calls, SB calls, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (17 BB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif (5 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls, SB calls.

River: (22 BB) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif (5 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG folds, UTG+1 raises, MP3 calls, SB folds, Hero raises, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls.

Final Pot: 28 BB

Results:
Hero has Td Tc (full house, tens full of fours).
UTG+1 has 9d 8d (two pair, nines and eights).
MP3 has Qs Qh (two pair, queens and fours).
Outcome: Hero wins 28 BB.

Any additional thoughts

HentaiGaijin

07-30-2005, 12:47 AM

This is a five star post/discussion. Bookmarked for further study.

Aaron W.

07-30-2005, 01:15 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I posted the first action of the river previously, but there really doesn't seem to be much of interest in the river of this hand.

Ultimate Bet 0.05/0.10 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG+1 calls, MP1 raises, 1 fold, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Button calls, SB 3-bets, Hero calls, UTG calls, Dr calls, MP1 caps, MP3 calls, Button folds, SB calls, Hero calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (29 SB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif (6 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 bets, MP1 folds, MP3 calls, SB calls, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (17 BB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif (5 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls, SB calls.

River: (22 BB) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif (5 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG folds, UTG+1 raises, MP3 calls, SB folds, Hero raises, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls.

Final Pot: 28 BB

Results:
Hero has Td Tc (full house, tens full of fours).
UTG+1 has 9d 8d (two pair, nines and eights).
MP3 has Qs Qh (two pair, queens and fours).
Outcome: Hero wins 28 BB.

Any additional thoughts

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't get in on any of the play along. It's too bad, because this was a nice hand for one.

The most interesting question seems to be whether to bet the turn or try a check-raise. (The preflop coldcall OOP vs SB 3-bet is standard because of the number of players in the pot, flop check-call is standard because of the pot size, and not slowing down on the river is standard because seeing 44 is MUBS.)

I like to lead on the turn. In such a big pot, contested in so many ways, there's no way to be certain that someone holding a 9 is actually going to bet it. He may get scared off by the ten, he may get scared off because everyone is calling. He may not even have the nine and wanted to stab at the pot on the flop with overcards to maybe buy a free card... There are just too many ways it's *NOT* getting bet for you.

By betting you get your 3-4 BB on the turn without fail. Plus you might get the raising war that you dream about when you catch such a miracle card (but if the war is coming, you'll get a war reagardless of whether you bet out or check-raise... so bet out to make sure you get those first bets in the pot).

bozlax

07-30-2005, 01:30 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Any additional thoughts

[/ QUOTE ]

MP3 is a dink.

Edit: and, nice play-along. These are tough to do, I found out a couple of weeks ago.

WSOP Bound

07-30-2005, 01:46 AM

[ QUOTE ]
MP3 is a dink.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your giving UTG+1 way to much credit, he's a dink too /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[ QUOTE ]
Edit: and, nice play-along. These are tough to do, I found out a couple of weeks ago.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks, it wasn't too much. I know I walked away with some things to think about regarding my play. I just hope that the more experienced players can walk away with something useful as well.

McGahee

07-30-2005, 01:59 AM

[ QUOTE ]

I didn't get in on any of the play along. It's too bad, because this was a nice hand for one.

[/ QUOTE ]

It was?
Join us next week when we discuss how to play quad aces.

MrWookie47

07-30-2005, 02:03 AM

MP1 is a retard, UTG+1 is a retard, MP3 is a retard. Just another day in the retards-ville we call the internet.

Notice how betting out on the turn completely killed your action from 9's. Good thing UTG+1 is retarded enough to think his 2 pair actually matters. I still like going for a c/r on the turn.

This was a pretty good play along.

WSOP Bound

07-30-2005, 02:30 AM

The more I think about this turn line I begin wondering wether I should have C/Red. Here's my line of thought so far:

Assumptions: No one is folding out of this hand at this point.

We checkraise:
(10 * (% of time that someone leads)) + (0 * (% of times it checks through)) + (20 * (% of time that it is 3-bet and we can cap))

We Lead:
(5 * (% of times it's just called)) + (15 * (% of times we are reaised and can 3-bet)) + (20 * (% of times it gets capped))

There are certainly a lot of variables that are missed here, but I think it works well enough to get a good estimate. Now the sticking point is get a good estimate of the percentage of times that each event will occur. I'm not even sure if this can be done to a level of accuracy that makes this anywhere near valid. Actually, I'm not even sure that this is worth doing since each situation would vary greatly and this isn't the kind of calcuation that you could quickly do at the table. Any thoughts?

WSOP Bound

07-30-2005, 02:40 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I didn't get in on any of the play along. It's too bad, because this was a nice hand for one.

[/ QUOTE ]

It was?
Join us next week when we discuss how to play quad aces.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that there were some interesting aspects to this thread. Of particular interest to me was the discussion regarding capping or calling preflop and the discussion about wether to lead or check-raise the turn. I'm sure that these are relatively simple decisions for some, but as a newbie I was certainly interested in the discussion.

It's agreed that after the first turn decision the only way to play this hand is to jam chips in there as furiously as possible. Even a fish could get that part right /images/graemlins/grin.gif

bozlax

07-30-2005, 09:56 AM

I'll dispense with the EV calculations except to say that you forgot to subtract the %(time it gets checked through) * (cost of suddenly-airborne laptop).

Here's the way I look at it, and you can do this at the table. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. Yeah, I'd like to get 2 bets out of everyone on the turn, but if it's a choice between one from everyone and none, I want to make damn sure I'm going to get one. Even with rock-solid PT-stat reads on the other players (which I don't think you really have, here), on a raggy board like this you can never be sure when an aggressor will spook and decide to take a free card. As I said in a previous post, this late in the hand is no time to START being cute.

Aaron W.

07-30-2005, 10:00 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Any thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's all about your read on UTG+1. If you think he's got enough to stay aggressive on the overcard, the preflop cap (even though capper folded, everyone else has "something"), and recognizing the fact that nobody is going to fold, the check-raise may work.

This is too scary for most players and it's hard to find opportunities for essentially a guaranteed 4 BB in a single spot. You have the second nuts and everyone is ready to pay you off. Don't be too greedy.

bozlax

07-30-2005, 10:14 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Notice how betting out on the turn completely killed your action from 9's.

[/ QUOTE ]

Notice how somebody raising before him completely killed your action from pocket queens. (By the way, if OP actually had his, "*Have seen MP3 play pocket kings and a flopped 2nd-nut flush without finding a reason to bet/raise on any street," read prior to the hand, that's gotta be the Read Of The Month.)

Players at these levels will do all kinds of silly crap. The player with the 9 could have decided to scratch his ass before he made a play on the turn and gotten so lost trying to find it that he timed out! There's no way to be SURE he's going to bet, and the only thing more -EV here than failing to trap the field for 2 bets is failing to get even one bet out of them.

Fantam

07-30-2005, 10:24 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Players at these levels will do all kinds of silly crap. The player with the 9 could have decided to scratch his ass before he made a play on the turn and gotten so lost trying to find it that he timed out! There's no way to be SURE he's going to bet, and the only thing more -EV here than failing to trap the field for 2 bets is failing to get even one bet out of them.

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand the reasons given for not check/raising the turn, but I think that its also worthwhile to consider how the other players in the hand might view you.

I am sure that I missed out on a similar opportunity to check/raise on the turn recently, because one of the two players in the hand was quite laggish and the other player had already bet the flop.

I think I had a pretty tight image at the table, and as soon as I "woke up" with a bet on the turn, the one player folded and the lag called down.

bozlax

07-30-2005, 10:34 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Players at these levels will do all kinds of silly crap. The player with the 9 could have decided to scratch his ass before he made a play on the turn and gotten so lost trying to find it that he timed out! There's no way to be SURE he's going to bet, and the only thing more -EV here than failing to trap the field for 2 bets is failing to get even one bet out of them.

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand the reasons given for not check/raising the turn, but I think that its also worthwhile to consider how the other players in the hand might view you.

I am sure that I missed out on a similar opportunity to check/raise on the turn recently, because one of the two players in the hand was quite laggish and the other player had already bet the flop.

I think I had a pretty tight image at the table, and as soon as I "woke up" with a bet on the turn, the one player folded and the lag called down.

[/ QUOTE ]

Different situation. Our flop bettor, here, was loose-passive-passive, IIRC.

The biggest guppy in the pond is able to recognize that his top pair just became second pair and decide to just try to get to showdown in a huge pot.