Main event "get chips early" logic skewed

[huntsky]

This is just my opinion, and it was my starategy. There was no need to rush out and try to establish a large stack early.

With the blinds going up every 1.75 hours, the number of hands seen was very large. Out of those hands, you are going to have the best of it, and with loose aggressive players, you will get paid. the tournament is so long, you have plenty of time to build a stack. Once the blinds get to 3000- 6000 with 1000 ante, things change and you can make a move for the final table. A few of the name pros in the top 20 started out strong, but if you look at their end of day 2 chip counts, you see they made moves on days 3 and 4.

Thoughts?

[TomCollins]

How many hands do you think you see in 1.75 hours? My best guess is 40 at most. Also, you think your opponents won't realize you haven't played a hand all day? then all of a sudden you raise? So you steal blinds and are barely even. You won't get paid most of the time.

[sekrah]

Not sure..

After Day 2 (4th Day actually), with 571 left. Everybody who reached the final table was in the top 1/2 in chip stacks, Half were in the Top 100 at this point of the tournament.

[burningyen]

I had read estimates that you see about 40 hands/hr.

[Matt R.]

I think the main reason pros like to build a big stack early or bust out is because of the side games. They stand to win more money in the side games then if they play patiently and try to maximize their tournament winnings. They're playing for the big score in the main event, not just to make the money -- otherwise they're actually losing money in terms of $/hour. If you're trying to just maximize your tournament winnings though, I think you're right about trying to be patient being the best strategy.

[Quicksilvre]

I would guess 35 hands/hr, for 60 hands (six orbits) per level.

[TomCollins]

You are WAY too high on your estimation. First, people will take 1-2 minutes on tough decisions. Second, I don't think B&M dealers can deal much above 30 hands per hour, even with the amount of blind stealing that happens. Then, accounting for the occasional long hand. If you have HDOG at your table, you could see as few as 10 hands per level.

[whiskeytown]

I sent an email early on in 2004 when I was setting up tournament software - hit a few pros -

general consensus is 30 hands/hr, I think at BEST... - some go real fast, some don't.

RB

[Sponger15SB]

[ QUOTE ]
You are WAY too high on your estimation. First, people will take 1-2 minutes on tough decisions. Second, I don't think B&M dealers can deal much above 30 hands per hour, even with the amount of blind stealing that happens. Then, accounting for the occasional long hand. If you have HDOG at your table, you could see as few as 10 hands per level.

[/ QUOTE ]

Didn't you play at the WSOP?

Can't someone (like, half of 2+2) who played in the WSOP comment on this.

I heard it was like 20 hands/hr max

[runnerunner]

The main reason for the "Get chips early" logic is that in the Main Event there are a lot of bad players who are going to do stupid things and dump chips. Good players want to play a lot of pots and have a chance to get these chips before the other good players have them and they become much harder to get.

The biggest mistake I saw bad players make in this year was getting too aggressive when they got short on chips. Pushing from MP with AJ when they still had enough for 10 rounds, for example. Pros generally target the two or three worse players at the table and will play a LOT of pots in position against them to try and get their money.

[cero_z]

Hi runnerunner,

[ QUOTE ]
The biggest mistake I saw bad players make in this year was getting too aggressive when they got short on chips. Pushing from MP with AJ when they still had enough for 10 rounds, for example.

[/ QUOTE ]

Check out Harrington on Hold'em Vol. 2 if you think this is a big mistake.

[Howard Treesong]

[ QUOTE ]
Can't someone (like, half of 2+2) who played in the WSOP comment on this.

I heard it was like 20 hands/hr max

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't make it through the first day, but play at my table was reasonably quick. I didn't do a strict count, but I'm fairly certain we played at least five orbits for each of the first three levels, perhaps even six.

I've read reports indicating that play near the bubble was incredibly slow.

[benkahuna]

I played in the ME too, first day only until around 10:30 p.m. I recall playing even more hands than you mention, but it was partly skewed by my early table that was very tight. Not one person busted out until 3 hours into the event.

[woodguy]

I really like these two quotes and I think they are relevent.

"The typical tournament player should not ever turn down any situation with the smallest of edges. You could even argue that he should gamble in situations where he has slightly the worst of it. But that is not the way the vast majority of mediocre tournament players operate"

David Sklansky Tournament Poker For Advance Players p.25


"When I play (tournaments), I often feel as if I am in a race to get the chip lead at my table."

Barry Greenstein Ace on the River p.214


Gaining a large stack early also helps lessen your variance later in the tourney as with a big stack you can take the "bad beats" and still be alive.

Playing too tight and not pushing your edges in any tourney just gets you to the rail.

Regards,
Woodguy

[benkahuna]

[ QUOTE ]
I really like these two quotes and I think they are relevent.

"The typical tournament player should not ever turn down any situation with the smallest of edges. You could even argue that he should gamble in situations where he has slightly the worst of it. But that is not the way the vast majority of mediocre tournament players operate"

David Sklansky Tournament Poker For Advance Players p.25


"When I play (tournaments), I often feel as if I am in a race to get the chip lead at my table."

Barry Greenstein Ace on the River p.214


Gaining a large stack early also helps lessen your variance later in the tourney as with a big stack you can take the "bad beats" and still be alive.

Playing too tight and not pushing your edges in any tourney just gets you to the rail.

Regards,
Woodguy

[/ QUOTE ]


And playing to get a chip lead early increases early variance, increasing your chances of hitting the rail early. Tournament guides I've read suggest going for an early chip lead make you more likely to force the action early and unnecessarily increase risk.

Unless you're Daniel Negreanu and you hate being at the final table without a big stack so you have a chance of winning, I'm not really sure it's a very good strategy. I need convincing.

Just because Barry Greenstein does it doesn't mean it's for me (I'm a long way from being Barry) and Sklansky's quote doesn't imply going for an early chip lead is good strategy.

[shaniac]

[ QUOTE ]
Gaining a large stack early also helps lessen your variance later in the tourney as with a big stack you can take the "bad beats" and still be alive.

Playing too tight and not pushing your edges in any tourney just gets you to the rail.

[/ QUOTE ]

I usually operate with this principle as a subtext, too, but the OP has a point: Although you will have to push small edges and accumulate chips at some point in the tournament, it doesn't have to be in the first few levels of the tournament. This really has nothing to do with the number of hands-per-level; playing with 200 BBs for 1.75 hours does not require you to do anything in particular (you don't even have to show up) at the beginning. You'd be much better off just feeling things out at first and picking your spots to gamble agressively a little later.

[cwsiggy]

From the WSOP blogs, they were saying Lederer was being ultra aggressive, making 5k bets in the first couple levels. /images/graemlins/shocked.gif Who knows what the circumstances were but he went deep.

[shaniac]

Was he opening the pot preflop for 5K or firing off big bets into already-large pots? I'd suspect the latter, and in any case such vague reports do not tell us much about the relative value of gambling early as a means of going deep.

My opinion remains that you just gotta get out there and play poker, not go in with a pre-ordained strategy.

PS. It's too bad this thread isn't in MTT.

[cwsiggy]

from Cardplayer's reports... probably doesn't mean much since they didn't go into details.

Howard Lederer's Aggressive Start
Log: It's becoming fairly obvious why Howard Lederer wears the Full Tilt hockey jersey to the table. Lederer is using the poker equivilant of the body check, running over his table thus far with an all in, and some big bets. CardPlayer.com reporters have already seen Lederer make bets of $5,000 in chips twice, and Level 1 isn't even over yet.

[Moonsugar]

[ QUOTE ]

My opinion remains that you just gotta get out there and play poker, not go in with a pre-ordained strategy.


[/ QUOTE ]

This, I think, is also Ivey's opinion.

[Sadat X]

How you should play on the first day of the WSOP all depends on the tendencies of your opponents.

I went in to day 1 planning to play a conservative strategy. At 50 hands per hour, you can still have $8700 or so left after the first 2 levels even if you fold every hand. So I was just going to play fairly tight and look for an opportunity to double-up.

After a few orbits at the table, however, I realized that I could pick up lots of small pots and build my stack because nearly everyone was playing weak-tight poker.

So I *adjusted* my strategy and started playing very aggressively. I had over $40,000 in chips going into level 7 and never made a bet larger than the pot.

NLHE tourneys are largely about adjustments and whether or not to go for a big stack early depends mostly on your opponents.

I made it to about 10pm the first day. I had TJ Cloutier behind me and he went out ultra fast, he was really pushing hard to get an early chip lead. Honestly I saw about 30 to 40 hands per hour. I hardly played at all except top 10 hands. What a mistake. I should have played more hands for sure. Next year (hopefully) I am going to be more aggressive and play more hands in good position instead of folding the non top 10 hands that I got in good position. I went in with the stratedgy of playing ultra tight. But it doesn't work unless you continually catch good hands. I thought it was going to be a juicy ass tournament...the first hand of the tournament i was dealt KK. An added story...there was this guy who bought in last year to the main event and hardly knew anything about the game. This guy had beer after beer until he was completely intoxicated. He played almost every hand. He ended up being one of the chip leaders by the end of the day. So I think there is something to be said for trying to accumulate an early chip lead in the WSOP by playing a little bit looser. Obviously this guy took it a little too far.

[Wake up CALL]

If you sell more than 100% of yourself you need to push very hard and fast early in the tournament when it is easier to get busted before you accumulate too many chips and get close to cashing. The stress of being oversold and getting close to the money must be very intense for many of these semi-pro scammers.