An Eagan Sweep of the week

[timprov]

Following up on Mark's win on Tuesday, I managed to take this morning's tourney. The key to winning? Getting dealt lots of pat 7s and 8s, and improving well when given free cards.

[MarkGritter]

[ QUOTE ]
Following up on Mark's win on Tuesday, I managed to take this morning's tourney. The key to winning? Getting dealt lots of pat 7s and 8s, and improving well when given free cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

Seriously, though, the number of free cards you get can be amazing. The increasing limits seem to make people very bet- and raise-shy.

I wonder if there are any situations in which avoiding the bet or raise is actually the strategicly correct decision. I kind of doubt it, but it might be that your edge is small enough that it is not +$EV to bet even if it is +chip EV.

Here's a case to think about: you are short-stacked at the final table and playing a hand HU vs. the chip leader. Would it be advantageous to decline a 3rd round bet if the chip leader is likely to raise to put you all-in, whether improved or not? The bet is unlikely to drive out the CL; check/calling (or getting it checked through) leaves you with 1-2 big bets to try again later, while bet/raise/call means you must win this hand to stay in the tournament. (And what is correct play on the big stack's part?)

[timprov]

[ QUOTE ]

I wonder if there are any situations in which avoiding the bet or raise is actually the strategicly correct decision. I kind of doubt it, but it might be that your edge is small enough that it is not +$EV to bet even if it is +chip EV.


[/ QUOTE ]

A lot of the betting just because you're a card ahead that goes on in cash games is a bad idea with shallow stacks. Better to take the free draw. I think predraw raising standards should be tighter as well, but partly that's because of the free cards/predraw looseness going on rather than the stack sizes.

Opponents seem pretty willing to commit their chipstacks while drawing if they face aggression (someone at the final table even raised and capped allin predraw, then draw four), so with all the free cards it makes sense to wait until you have a showdown hand and hammer the bets in on them.