Tough spot with QQ on turn...pot too big and I dont know where I am

[DrPublo]

SB has been conspicuously bad at calling down with 2nd best hands. BB is new/unknown.

Watch the BB's play all the way. What's my line on the turn?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

MP ($393)
Button ($97.95)
<font color="#C00000">SB ($293.39)</font>
BB ($329.18)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($196.05)</font>

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. SB posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $8</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB (poster) raises to $13</font>, BB calls $12, Hero calls $6.

Flop: ($42) J/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $40</font>, SB calls $40, BB calls $40.

Turn: ($162) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, Hero....

Also note that while I've been sitting for a bit at this table this is the first hand I've really played.

All comments welcome. Thanks,

The Doc

[alphatmw]

i think SB has AK. but when it keeps getting checked to me i can't help but bet, so if SB is trapping, he'd probably get me.

AA or KK would not be playing a coordinated flop so passively.

[jkkkk]

The only thing your beating here is a straight draw, or possibly top pair!?

You can't bet without committing yourself, I think taking a free card is probably best, theres a strong possibility that one of them is going for a check-push.

[fimbulwinter]

check through the turn. decide the river based on the card.

benefits of betting this turn are far outweighed by calling all in drawing dead to a flush.

fim

[TheWorstPlayer]

There isn't really very much 'calling all-in' since if he bets the turn he will have to push, I believe. In any case, because of this situation, I prefer just to check the flop. I would have expected to get check/raised on that flop about 80% of the time. Yuck.

[DrPublo]

[ QUOTE ]
There isn't really very much 'calling all-in' since if he bets the turn he will have to push, I believe. In any case, because of this situation, I prefer just to check the flop. I would have expected to get check/raised on that flop about 80% of the time. Yuck.

[/ QUOTE ]

Definitely can't check the flop. I'm ahead too often and there are too many cards I don't want to see on the turn. Also note that if I do get c/r'ed on the flop, I don't mind getting it all in.


The Doc

[theben]

i think caution wins...knock the table

[TheWorstPlayer]

Which cards, other than the 5c, do you not want to see on the turn?

[DrPublo]

I decide to take the free card and check behind.

River: K /images/graemlins/heart.gif

SB bets $60, BB folds (!!), I call.

SB shows T /images/graemlins/diamond.gifQ /images/graemlins/club.gif. Chop chop. Did not see that one coming.

The Doc

[TheWorstPlayer]

Wow, I really don't get this hand. On the turn, there are TONS of cards you REALLY don't want to see. How can you check? I definitely push once I get here.

[Delphin]

[ QUOTE ]
I decide to take the free card and check behind.

River: K /images/graemlins/heart.gif

SB bets $60, BB folds (!!), I call.

SB shows T /images/graemlins/diamond.gifQ /images/graemlins/club.gif. Chop chop. Did not see that one coming.

The Doc

[/ QUOTE ]

I definitely put one of them on a Q, and when the K comes off you have to be more than a little concerned about AQ.

But calling the $60 is a no brainer. Would you have called a push?

[DrPublo]

[ QUOTE ]
Which cards, other than the 5c, do you not want to see on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

I bet the full pot on the flop. This is actually rare for me, as my usual bet is about 75-85% of the pot regardless of if I have a monster or am just continuation betting. I got called in 2 spots after some fairly aggressive preflop action.

Preflop, for the SB to reraise the FIRST hand I played at the table, I put him on a big pair and possibly AK with about a 20% chance for something like 66 and below (I've seen players do this to try and win a huge pot when they hit). For the BB to cold-call instantly told me something like 99-JJ and maybe AK.

On the flop I'm most worried about the BB but the reraise-check line from the SB is just so freaking suspicious that I need to bet and see what's going on. Called in two spots and I instantly start to think about a flush draw (Ac Kc?) and the BB's call-call line is getting even more suspicious.

Thus I potentially don't want to see a club on the turn, a board-pairing card, or even a Q. Thats like 18 cards or something.

I checked the turn because I thought it was reasonably likely that I was either dead to a flush or way behind a set (that was also scared by the club and decided to let another card go by to try and fill). The river makes me a 5 card hand which gives me showdown value, and I called a less-than-half pot bet from the SB (the BB dropped...can't be sure what he had).

The Doc

[DrPublo]

I'm getting better than 2:1 on a push so probably, although I think I'd be happier calling a push from the SB than the BB.

The Doc

[Stormwolf]

This is a terrible flop for your hand, you should have checked

[amoeba]

with the OESD, its not that bad.

but I would have checked as well.

there aren't that many hands that would reraise that you are ahead of right now.

[DrPublo]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a terrible flop for your hand, you should have checked

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree 100%.

Let's (conservatively) estimate the SB's re-raising standards are AA, KK, QQ, Aks and Ako.

According to pokerstove,

Board: Jc 9s Tc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 58.0982 % 56.33% 01.77% { QdQs }
Hand 2: 41.9018 % 40.14% 01.77% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }


How is this a bad flop for me?

I also think I need to bet to see what exactly the BB has and to try and make the pot heads up. In addition, if I wind up taking it down as little as 5% of the time I'm a very happy man.

The Doc

[amoeba]

you put AK in his range but not JJ?

[DrPublo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is a terrible flop for your hand, you should have checked

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree 100%.

Let's (conservatively) estimate the SB's re-raising standards are AA, KK, QQ, Aks and Ako.

According to pokerstove,

Board: Jc 9s Tc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 58.0982 % 56.33% 01.77% { QdQs }
Hand 2: 41.9018 % 40.14% 01.77% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }


How is this a bad flop for me?

I also think I need to bet to see what exactly the BB has and to try and make the pot heads up. In addition, if I wind up taking it down as little as 5% of the time I'm a very happy man.

The Doc

[/ QUOTE ]

Further equity calculations...

If I put the BB on any pair JJ and below and also AKs and AKo, my equity is

Board: Jc 9s Tc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 46.7518 % 45.30% 01.45% { QdQs }
Hand 2: 35.8578 % 33.90% 01.96% { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 3: 17.3903 % 16.79% 00.60% { JJ-22, AKs, AKo }


I definitely need to bet the flop, especially to see exactly where the BB stands in all of this.

The Doc

[DrPublo]

[ QUOTE ]
you put AK in his range but not JJ?

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you see players reraise out of position with JJ more often or AK?

If you do add JJ to the range it only affects the numbers by about 1% (notice that the 2nd equity calculation includes JJ for the SB).

The Doc

[TheWorstPlayer]

This pot is three way.

[Stormwolf]

The problem with the bet is that your laying 1-1 that you wont be raised(since you will have to laydown, unless you plan to draw to a one carded straight that wont be paid off and might get you broke/tied), you may be against a shy AA/KK in which case you dont want to bet since your drawing, you might drawing dead to set or straight, or behind a two pair. Most of the time you are drawing and want the free card, and you get the added benefit of seeing the turn action before you put any money

[FreakDaddy]

I think a check is better than a push on this board. All things considered, the only things you're beating are straight draws at this point. You could very likely be against another over pair, trips, or AKs.

[intheflatfield]

Without having read any of the other responses, I would think that Likely I am behind at this point, but I might consider a mini bet - w/ the intent to go over the top to SB agression unless BB shows strength. With your read on SB, I am more concerned that BB has Ax(club), likely at least AJ + Flush Draw(if he represents strength), I think it's safe to fold. IMO a push here would only get called if you were beat.

[intheflatfield]

The more I think about the absolute last I want is to give a give a free card here. If I'm not already behind, I'm just as likely to hit my card and still not take down the pot. I want some kind of read on the SB vs. BB reaction to a mini-bet.

[TheWorstPlayer]

min bet = teh suck.

[intheflatfield]

Could u elaborate?

[TheWorstPlayer]

yes

[intheflatfield]

Allrighty then, my apologies for insulting your poker intelligence with my naive question and/or my analysis. I can understand how that line might be considered weak, but you don't have to be a smart-azz about it. If it's below you to address the question, then don't respond at all. I'm not in the mood to be flamed today just for your amusement...

[amoeba]

I'll go in to it.

the problem with a mini bet is that if raised, we have no idea whether villain is just picking up on weakness or if villain really has a hand.

the miniraise forces us to fold if raised if they are aggressive and if they are passive, they fold hands we beat but calls with hands that beat us.

[intheflatfield]

Thanks, I appreciate the response. I would have to agree w/ you, but I guess what I was thinking back to the times that I have seen someone min bet after 2 check(it would make me think 2x about the possiblity that it was a trap bet) but even then they could just call and I still wouldn't know where I was. Or like you said, all of the sudden the you're making a decision for your entire stack w/o any more info than you started with. Just needed to think it thru better. What would you do?

[amoeba]

the only time that minibet would work is if you are playing with somebody sophisticated that knows you would underbet with a monster here.

in other words you pull a post oak bluff.

in this case, I think I check the flop.

I don't think betting it really tells me anything and all it does is fold out AK.

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
Just needed to think it thru better.

[/ QUOTE ]
This was my point. You should be able to figure out why min-betting here is very bad.

[intheflatfield]

Yeah guess I had a case of FPS there. But, at least I recognize it as such now. I guess it's just a natural by-product of trying to apply one's newly acquired knowledge or increased level of awareness / or reasoning in a real world way and learning you didn't have quite the grasp on a concept as you thought you did. Thanks for the patience.

[intheflatfield]

[ QUOTE ]
This was my point. You should be able to figure out why min-betting here is very bad.


[/ QUOTE ]

point taken /images/graemlins/blush.gif