TPNK in large pot

[silkyslim]

No reads on these peeps yet. I bet the flop hoping villian would raise to thin the field and because my hand might be best

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls, BB folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls.

Turn: (6.75 BB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, MP1 folds, Hero ??

[POKhER]

kickers counterfitted, A+Card over 6 now beats you.

Either call down, Or fold now... I think hes saying he has 1 pair beat.

JJ overplayed on his behalf? Gutshot straight hit?

9.75:2 = 4.875:1 --&gt; Odds to improve 6.7:1
It might be wrong... but im folding
I'd let this go /images/graemlins/frown.gif Fold

[Eeegah]

I smell a slowplay here, and even if he's not it looks to me like he can beat your counterfeited top pair. I don't think you're good more than the 6.4 to 1 you're probably getting after check/calling the river, but I'd still call down, swear loudly, and make a note if he did make a stupid slowplay in a large pot here.

[thesharpie]

Folds the turn. What's your plan if he raises the flop?

[thesharpie]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think you're good more than the 6.4 to 1 you're probably getting after check/calling the river, but I'd still call down and make a note

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know how often we're good here, but let's say we're good 1 time and bad 8 times, including the times we might draw out. I actually think we're bad more often than this but I'll be optimistic. You just lost 1.6BB, an hour of winnings for some, to "make a note". I don't think any information is worth that much unless I'm playing with this opponent for many many hands.

[McGahee]

If he has AQ you can draw at the river. The problem with that is he doesn't have AQ.

[NobodysFreak]

I'm more likely to fold this turn than call down. A3s isn't a hand I want in this position.

[Rosencrantz1]

Grunching.

This is the problem with low suited aces: when you pair the ace and miss the flush, you've got hard decisions to make.

The button's betting seems pretty straight-forward: the J improved him. Given his PF raise, I think we're most concerned about a set of Js.

He's obviously not scared of the over-cards being paired (he must be putting you on Aces or Kings, right?).

You're drawing pretty thin here. The aces are probably outs, but it's certainly possible villain is on AJ (or, I suppose, slowplaying AK, waiting for the turn to raise you). Pairing your trey will probably improve you, but really we're talking no more than 5 outs, probably better counted as 3.5-4. Even the implied odds aren't really good enough to make this a solid call.

I think it's ok to let this go to his raise on the turn.

[xenthebrain]

fold.
You have TPNK on a board with many highcards and a completed straightdraw. I don't think you are good here enough to justify going to showdown.

[Rosencrantz1]

[ QUOTE ]
If he has AQ you can draw at the river. The problem with that is he doesn't have AQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well crafted. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[Asim]

i would fold... I seriosuly think you are beaten pretty bad here the pot isnt exactly THAT big.. even if it is, what exactly are you drawing too? ch/c + ch/r on the turn normally means a strong hand, 2 pr or a set, maybe even AK... all I know is that you are probably beaten and beaten pretty bad, no draws... fold

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
I bet the flop hoping villian would raise to thin the field and because my hand might be best

[/ QUOTE ]

I would still check the flop, expecting button to bet. A free card isn't very likely to hurt you, and you would like to see if anyone else in interested in this pot before getting too involved (a check-raise makes this hand worth folding).

[DeathDonkey]

You are drawing dead, fold. I check the flop.

-DeathDonkey

[Guruman]

IMO, the biggest mistake was the pf call. Even though this was a multiway hand AXs has to hit the flush draw to have much worth against multiple opponents.

These guys all look a little loose/passive in this hand - which could mean they may play any suited ace (like you just did).

without a read, lets try to apply some logic to BB's line here: I'll go w occam's razor (the idea that he's playing straighforward) for the most part.

pf raise could be any suited ace, any suited king, any pair &gt;44, or maybe even any two face cards &gt; QJo. Flop call probably rules out AA, KK, and AK. Turn raise could be any pp &lt; 77, KJ, K6, AK, AJ. Also - a slowplayed set or a stone-cold bluff could show up here as well.

If villain has 2 pr, you may have 5 outs to beat him. (ex - he holds KJs and you can catch any six or ace) If he has Ace - nothing you can tie him if the board stays above his kicker. If he's got a set you're down to 2 outs. If he just paired his naked K or J you're waaaay ahead. Also important to consider is the fact that you've aggressive so far. A raise here represents AK or a set, and even a call from villain totally defines his hand.

Given how you got there I'd raise this huge pot and fold to a cap and then check/fold the river.

Eventually, you'll have to get a read on this guy so you don't go groping around in the dark like this.

I'll also reiterate my preference for folding this pf.

flame goggles on. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[PokerBob]

check the flop

[Brice]

[ QUOTE ]
You are drawing dead, fold. I check the flop.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. When the you missed the flush draw you need to fold. Remember, people love to play with Ace-rag. They have you outkicked and you are drawing at as few as 3 outs depending on your opponents cards. It is also a multiway pot.

[sccrneo]

No matter how much people like to place Ax, there are only so many Aces that can be in the hand and you cant be up against an Ace every single time there is an Ace on the flop. In this situation though, I would probably fold to the turn raise with your kicker counterfeited and most likely splitting at best.

[sirana]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In Antwort auf:</font><hr />
IMO, the biggest mistake was the pf call. Even though this was a multiway hand AXs has to hit the flush draw to have much worth against multiple opponents.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree.

you have 2 two limpers before you in MP2 and SSHE has this as a call in MP even for tight games. your chances of having at least a (weak) ovecard + BDFD are huge + you can easily discard if you didn't hit anything. I never fold this in MP with 2 limpers before me.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
IMO, the biggest mistake was the pf call. Even though this was a multiway hand AXs has to hit the flush draw to have much worth against multiple opponents.

...

flame goggles on.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you putting your pattern-mapping goggles on, too? If you've got the multiway pot with Axs, what else are you looking for?

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
with your kicker counterfeited

[/ QUOTE ]

Why does everyone keep mentioning this? Are we winning this often with our 3 kicker?

[JerseyTom]

[ QUOTE ]
In this situation though, I would probably fold to the turn raise with your kicker counterfeited and most likely splitting at best.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. You're either drawing (slim) to a split or you're completely pwned. Not good times...

I think I might have checked this flop and folded if button bet and got any overcalls.

Given the way you played it, I'm so folding the turn.


Tom

[Guruman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
IMO, the biggest mistake was the pf call. Even though this was a multiway hand AXs has to hit the flush draw to have much worth against multiple opponents.

...

flame goggles on.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you putting your pattern-mapping goggles on, too? If you've got the multiway pot with Axs, what else are you looking for?

[/ QUOTE ]

reads and position. I'll limp with AXs late in a passive game after 2 limpers. I'll muck it in mp after 2 limpers in an aggressive game. Hero didn't know where he was yet.

I play tight though. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[silkyslim]

Pf I think is fine. Can someone explain why I check/call the flop? Turn fold is the right play

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
IMO, the biggest mistake was the pf call. Even though this was a multiway hand AXs has to hit the flush draw to have much worth against multiple opponents.

...

flame goggles on.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you putting your pattern-mapping goggles on, too? If you've got the multiway pot with Axs, what else are you looking for?

[/ QUOTE ]

reads and position. I'll limp with AXs late in a passive game after 2 limpers. I'll muck it in mp after 2 limpers in an aggressive game. Hero didn't know where he was yet.

I play tight though. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

You mean 16/8 tight or tighter?

Axs has good value in an aggressive game because you stand to make much more in implied odds than in a passive game. In an aggressive game, a pair of aces may also win more often because players will be pushing moderate hands stronger (trying to "represent the ace").

I would call the turn. Your immediate pot odds are 9.75-to-1, and I think there's a decent chance (maybe 20%??) you have him beat right now, based on the possibility that he has JJ, flush draw, or straight draw. I think that, of these possibilities, JJ is most likely because he came alive when Jack came on the turn (he could have reasonably raised pre-flop with QJs). It would also help explain why he wouldn't bet on the flop (he could have been calling based upon straight draw, backdoor flush).

Assuming he's a reasonable player, I think the most likely hands he could have raised pre-flop here are either KK or AA. He could easily be slowplaying a set of Kings or Aces on the flop.

Another distinct possibility is KJs, which would also explain why he would then bet the turn. However, I admit that I would have thought he would raise the flop with this hand, but perhaps someone can explain why that might be a good play for him???

Regardless of his most likely hands, however, a reasonable player could have QJs, and an unreasonable player could have something else entirely, thus giving you a good enough chance to call the turn IMHO.

Also IMHO: I question why you would call the pre-flop raise with A3s.

[silkyslim]

[ QUOTE ]
Also IMHO: I question why you would call the pre-flop raise with A3s.


[/ QUOTE ]
I had already limped when he raised, so I called for 1 more bet.

[@bsolute_luck]

[ QUOTE ]
Pf I think is fine. Can someone explain why I check/call the flop? Turn fold is the right play

[/ QUOTE ]

what cards are you scared of coming on the turn that would fold to your 1 bet on the flop? they're already drawing thin, plus what hands do you think Button has that he'll reraise you with? probably only hands that beat you and if i had AA-KK, i'd simply call too knowing the rest of the field is drawing nearly dead.

i think there's more to it too, but that's all i got right now /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Guruman]

[ QUOTE ]

Also IMHO: I question why you would call the pre-flop raise with A3s.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're in, you're in and you're getting great odds to call and flop a flush draw. The rule of thumb is usually that you should never limp with a hand that cant stand to call a raise.

I see the arguments that I'm getting here for limping in the first place, but I still prefer to limp with weak suited aces late as opposed to middle. Mucking preflop would have saved us from an ugly situation where the aggressor ended up behind us.

I think if you're going to check/fold the flop when you spike your ace here (not a particularly bad plan btw), you should have just folded preflop anyway.

Again, we've got no table image and no reads - so who know what anyone thinks about our calls and raises here. Walking around in the dark...

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
IMO, the biggest mistake was the pf call. Even though this was a multiway hand AXs has to hit the flush draw to have much worth against multiple opponents.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree.

you have 2 two limpers before you in MP2 and SSHE has this as a call in MP even for tight games. your chances of having at least a (weak) ovecard + BDFD are huge + you can easily discard if you didn't hit anything. I never fold this in MP with 2 limpers before me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought the advice in SSHE (keeping in mind it's just a general rule) was to call an unraised pot with A3s from middle (or any) position, and to only call a raise from late position if 4 had entered the pot before you???

[Fantam]

[ QUOTE ]
Pf I think is fine. Can someone explain why I check/call the flop? Turn fold is the right play

[/ QUOTE ]

On the flop, no overcards can come to your A top pair, so it is relatively difficult for someone to draw out on you if you are ahead. So it is not as important to worry about trying to knock players out.

And if you are behind, check/calling costs you the least bets to see a showdown.

[Eeegah]

[ QUOTE ]
I thought the advice in SSHE (keeping in mind it's just a general rule) was to call an unraised pot with A3s from middle (or any) position, and to only call a raise from late position if 4 had entered the pot before you???

[/ QUOTE ]

That only holds if the raise is in front of you. If you limp and someone raises behind you, you always call if it's one back to you. If it's 2 back to you then you tighten up to as if you're callling a raise, although this is somewhat elastic--a lot of people will play any pocket pair here as well.

[silkyslim]

You guys hijacked my post into a pf discussion.

[Guruman]

IMO, pf is what got us into trouble. where do you feel things got difficult?

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
Mucking preflop would have saved us from an ugly situation where the aggressor ended up behind us.

[/ QUOTE ]

While it might have saved you from an ugly situation this time, you would lose money in the long run. Just because something is difficult, it does not make it UNPROFITABLE. And that's the bottom line here. Failing to play this hand is a failure to play in a PROFITABLE situation.

[ QUOTE ]
I think if you're going to check/fold the flop when you spike your ace here (not a particularly bad plan btw), you should have just folded preflop anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

Check-folding this flop is a terrible plan if it's just for one bet.

[ QUOTE ]
Again, we've got no table image and no reads - so who know what anyone thinks about our calls and raises here. Walking around in the dark...

[/ QUOTE ]

If you are better than the average player at the table, then you stand to lose money by failing to play decent hands, even if you have no reads. Hands that are very profitable in many situations tend to remain profitable when you don't have good reads yet.

Yes, I see this now on page 86 of what's becoming my bible. Thanks for the info.

[DeuceKicker]

[ QUOTE ]
I bet the flop hoping villian would raise to thin the field and because my hand might be best

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, so if he's not raising, why do you think that is? He either whiffed completely or flopped large.

The turn would pretty much confirm in my mind that his hand contains A/K/J, pick two.

Edit: And only AJ or KJ were misplayed, IMO