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View Full Version : Lets discuss a bubble hand......


johnnybeef
07-29-2005, 02:14 AM
CO: 1300
BU: 1700
SB: 3600 (hero)
BB: 3400

Blinds 150/300

There is a dynamic going on here that makes me a little confused. I'm pushing any two here. That's because by doing so, folding is the only correct option for the bb unless he is holding 99+ (by ICM standards when my push range is any two). The problem I am having is that I did push with any two and he called with QT (very incorrectly) and I busted. When I went back and put his calling range in as QT+, K8+, A2+, 22+, it said that I should have a really tight pushing range. Where is my thinking incorrect? And should I be happy he called or did I make a mistake... /images/graemlins/confused.gif

curtains
07-29-2005, 02:21 AM
You are playing correctly assuming all your opponents play perfectly. I'm quite sure that its +EV for you to push with any 2. A perfect opponent will know this and then call with only the correct % of hands that's +EV against an any 2 push.

Of course we deal in a world where our opponents don't play perfectly, thus we sometimes have to alter the correct play to deal with their imperfections.

In this situation when your opponent plays incorrectly and calls with QTo it obviously hurts YOU, whilst helping the other 2 opponents. So of course you shouldn't be happy right now. You will be happy however when you are the shortstack and people make such terrible calls.

07-29-2005, 02:26 AM
Whats the buyin?
What kind of player is the BB?
Is the table tight or loose?

We need this info /images/graemlins/wink.gif

johnnybeef
07-29-2005, 02:41 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Whats the buyin?
What kind of player is the BB?
Is the table tight or loose?

We need this info /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

55, player has been slightly loose aggressive witha 3:1 chip lead, i doubled through him when i pushed AQ and he called with AT (I now know where my mistake was, I just assumed that he would switch gears once he lost the big stack) Table has been relatively tight.

Irieguy
07-29-2005, 02:57 AM
[ QUOTE ]
CO: 1300
BU: 1700
SB: 3600 (hero)
BB: 3400

Blinds 150/300

There is a dynamic going on here that makes me a little confused. I'm pushing any two here. That's because by doing so, folding is the only correct option for the bb unless he is holding 99+ (by ICM standards when my push range is any two). The problem I am having is that I did push with any two and he called with QT (very incorrectly) and I busted. When I went back and put his calling range in as QT+, K8+, A2+, 22+, it said that I should have a really tight pushing range. Where is my thinking incorrect? And should I be happy he called or did I make a mistake... /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Figuring out what optimal bubble play is based on ICM, and then acting accordingly is a great way to take most of the tournament equity created by the bad play of your opponents and forfeit it to all players that fold the hands that you play.

Curtains mentions this, and it's very important. If a player's bad play is bad in that he forfeits equity to folders by calling too much... you should fold. If a player's play is bad because he donates equity by folding too much... you should raise. The only time you should play "ICM-optimal" is when you are playing other opponents who are capable of optimal ICM play and you are forced to simply play to a stalemate. This will happen approximately never, give or take an infinite number of SNGs.

Irieguy

psyduck
07-29-2005, 08:38 PM
this is favorable almost all of the time. villain is just an amazing idiot and you should make note of him as a spite caller.