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View Full Version : Early risk...is this worth it?


WalleyeJason
07-29-2005, 01:47 AM
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Ok, no reads here this was the second hand of a 3 table sit-n-go

This hand is intresting to me because Im trying to better understand the magic mathmatical situations that can arise in the game of Holdem.

CO (t1410)
Walleye675 (t1490)
SB (t1480)
BB (t3140)
UTG (t1500)
UTG+1 (t1500)
MP1 (t1500)
MP2 (t1480)

Preflop: Walleye675 is Button with 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls t20, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls t20, MP2 calls t20, CO calls t20, Walleye675 calls t20, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t140) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets t50</font>, UTG folds, MP1 calls t50, MP2 calls t50, CO folds, Walleye675 calls t50, SB calls t50.

Turn: (t390) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets t60</font>, Walleye675 calls t60, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to t250</font>, MP1 calls t250, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to t440</font>, Walleye675 calls t380, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to t3070</font>, MP1 folds, MP2 calls t970 (All-In), Walleye675 calls t980 (All-In).

River: (t6540) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players, 2 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t6540

My first though was to raise on the button, but with 4 allready in, and the blinds yet to act I figured that if I raised I'd get called sevral ways and a push would have most likley created coin flip on the second hand, I wasent willing to risk a flip that early.

I think that after the flop I am probabably drawing pretty slim here, but for T50 and no real threat yet I decide to take a cheap card. I suppose I coulda raised here for info but I dont think anybody is going anywhere. Most likley a raise will just invoke a re-raise or all in.

The Turn

Ok, this really creats a unique situation for me. With all these people in the pot, Im sure somebodys got a 9. The betting indicates that I'm up against atleast two 9's

Here is where I start to think...Maybe thinking wrong but thats why I am posting this here. I know Im way behind here but I have 10 outs that I see, and knowing that Im up against atleast 2 players with made straights, I know that all their money is going in the middle at some point. when the BB checks, and MP2 bets out T60 I see the check raise coming, and I know that Im the meat in the sandwich. But I know in the end I'm probably going to get enough pot odds to draw to my outs. On the fly, I figured I was going to atleat triple up if I hit, making my call-call close to correct. Now I thought about pushing, but I was hoping to get as many people into this pot so I can win enough to make this play mathmaticly correct.

Now I know theres probably another term out there for this, but this is the second hand of the tourney, and having a lot of chips early in these type of tourneys is +ev, so at worst case Im out, best case I have a buttload of chips and should be able to cruise into the money.

What do you think of this, I will appricate any constructive critisizm.

WJ

runout_mick
07-29-2005, 06:30 AM
I think you can count one or two outs for the missing 9s as well. At first I was skeptical, but reading your analysis a third time, I think this is really a creative way to play this. Thumbs up.

bugstud
07-29-2005, 06:31 AM
nice hand

WalleyeJason
07-29-2005, 11:28 AM
I ended up winning this tournament, after getting heads up with another solid player. We played heads up for allmost 2 full rounds. We started about even on chips, We both got each other all in with Aces, but both times aces got busted. We traded the lead 4 times and there were some great starting hands JJ vs AQ, AA vs Q7, AK vs KQ.

WJ