Something is wrong here (Stats)...

Before I post my stats for you to review,
I DO REALIZE that this is a VERY SMALL SAMPLE SIZE.
My question is so that I can adjust my game slightly because I believe that 100 games is enough of a sample to notice the following trend...

I have FAR TOO many 3rd place finishes. Also my ITM is quite high which may be a bad thing. Even though I am pleased with my ROI, I think I should be getting more first place finishes. Perhaps I don't play well enough on the bubble? Perhaps I play too tight with 5-6 left and I am a short stack too often getting ITM?

Here we go,

Games: 100
ROI: 28%
ITM: 47%
1st: 11%
2nd: 13%
3rd: 23%

I DO realize this is a small sample size, but if you have experience with analyzing one's game then you should notice I am probably doing something wrong here.

Please don't post "Not enough sample size", or posts that will not benefit me or the forum in any way. Thanks!

Any thoughts?

[bluefeet]

assuming your 100 IS in fact indicative of your play (doubtful, honestly)....

too tight/scared on/near the bubble is my guess.

the fix? read/search all 'bubble'/'push' posts in the last month. seriously, that'll be a GREAT jump-start.

Disclaimer: This advice is as worthless as your sample size.

The only thing you could work on is raising more when its down to 4 or 5. Others have said it, and it's true, the #1 determining factor for heads up matches (or 3 way matches) is the chips you got there with.

Since you dont want me to say it:
*using sign language*
YOUR SAMPLE IS TOO SMALL...this isnt just what people say, its true.

[The Don]

Look to your own nick for the source of your problems.

Also, I agree 100 is nothing.

Thank you.

My goal is to get in the money. I do all I can to get there. This might be wrong. Once I am ITM, I dont care for second, I gamble for first. Ocasionally (10% of the games) I will get lucky and spike first. But then (25% of my games) I will lose out ITM.

Usually heads up I just push or fold no matter stack sizes. Any King or Ace I am all in. Is this bad? If so, how should I play?

[wiggs73]

[ QUOTE ]
My goal is to get in the money. I do all I can to get there. This might be wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]
To an extent it is. It should always be your goal to make the money, but not to creep into it. First is where the real money is, not 3rd. Don't play just to get your buy-in back.

[ QUOTE ]

Once I am ITM, I dont care for second, I gamble for first.


[/ QUOTE ]
Gambling for first should start when there are 5-6 people left. Do you see why?

[ QUOTE ]

Usually heads up I just push or fold no matter stack sizes. Any King or Ace I am all in. Is this bad? If so, how should I play?

[/ QUOTE ]
It's pretty standard. Once in a while if I get heads up early (when blinds are 200-400 or below) and stack sizes are about even at 4k a piece, I'll play a few hands of actual poker. But 90% of the time conditions don't allow for this, so you're right to be pushing or folding.

----------------------------------------------------

In general, your stats are very good through your first 100. Like you point out, the only thing that could use work is your finish distribution, but even that could change drastically over your next 100. I think your ITM percentage is unsustainably high at any level, so don't get discouraged if it falls some. And try to work some on being more aggressive on and near the bubble. It will really help that finish distribution. Good luck to you.

Great post!

This is what I was looking for.

Thank you!

Anyone else?

[Slim Pickens]

[ QUOTE ]
Games: 100
ROI: 28%
ITM: 47%

[/ QUOTE ]

If you think you have problems now, just wait until you come off your current heater. But yeah, what other said as well.

I don't view it as a heater. There have been ALOT of bad beats, and I consider it generally good play.

I guess that's what they all say... /images/graemlins/wink.gif

I guess I will play 400 more and re-post once I do. The reason for this post was to get a general idea fo what I am doing wrong (if anything), since my sample size is too small. Perhaps I had some good luck as well, as pickens has pointed out.

Only time will tell...

[lacky]

By the questions you are asking and the level of knowledge you are showing, you have been very lucky with you results. There is nothing wrong with that in the least, it's fun, and it makes you feel good. I know, I'm on a hell of a heater in the 109's. BUT, if you dont recognize it for what it is, it will lead to alot of frustration down the road, and alot of wasted potential learning time now. If you just say to yourself now "I've been really lucky, it's great, but I have alot to learn still" you will make much better use of your time. If you wait till 1000 games are staring you in the face you will have wasted all that time.

Steve

[Ogre]

you are probably gettting really lucky out of the money and unlucky once you get in the money. It is hard to tell by only 100 games. Post some bubble/ITM hands.

True Ogre.

I get real lucky on a short stack to get myself into the money. Once in the money I push with the best of it most of the time and lose. Such is life.

I agree lacky. This is a heater. I know it is. But the reason for this post is that I learn what the heck I am doing wrong. Apparently I am too weak when it gets down to 6/5 handed. I have just realized that due to this post and am applying new stratigies to my mid-game as we speak. I will never stop learning /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Thanks guys.

[Mr_J]

My last 100 have been the same way, high itm and poor 1st %. This is just variance for me, and variance is probally the reason for yours too.

If it isn't variance, then from your responses it sounds like you think just getting ITM is enough. It's not, you always have to be positioning yourself for first. 1st is how we profit. It's very hard to do well without a decent 1st %.

If it's not variance, what's the problem?? Could be just one thing, but most likely a few things. You're probally too conservative. Check how often you push on the bubble and itm. Bubble is about building a stack, not surviving.

[curtains]

I dont understand what you are asking for. The sample size is too small as you stated and thus NOTHING can be gleamed from your results. I have a similar trend of 3rds in my last 100-150 tourneys but overall I have more 1sts. It really means nothing, absolutely nothing and you shouldn't be concerned about it.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
Great post!

This is what I was looking for.

Thank you!

Anyone else?

[/ QUOTE ]


No all of this was ridiculous because your sample means nothing. Your results were fantastic whether or not you had a lot of 3rds. Sometimes situations occur where you get a ton of 3rd places in a row, this is just dumb luck after 100 tournaments.

Really I feel that very little can be gained by just posting stats and offering advice without any concrete play examples. Im surprised so many people seriously respond to a finish distribution of a 100 sit and go sample.

[AleoMagus]

Posts like this are so silly

First you say

[ QUOTE ]
I DO REALIZE that this is a VERY SMALL SAMPLE SIZE.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I don't think you do realize, or once you got to that point you would have shaken your head, and not bothered submitting the post. Instead, you continued with

[ QUOTE ]
I believe that 100 games is enough of a sample to notice the following trend...



[/ QUOTE ]

Not true at all.

[ QUOTE ]
I DO realize this is a small sample size, but if you have experience with analyzing one's game then you should notice I am probably doing something wrong here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Again, no you clearly do not realize how meaningless this sample is. 28% ROI... something wrong.... Yes, I see something wrong all right.

but I don't normally get too bothered by what had been said so far. Lots of people do the same thing on here all the time. It is annoying, but really not worth commenting on most of the time. It's just another of the "I know my sample is meaningless, but tell me what it means" questions.

It was this that struck a chord with me

[ QUOTE ]
Please don't post "Not enough sample size", or posts that will not benefit me or the forum in any way. Thanks!

[/ QUOTE ]

Not benefit the forum?!

The only response to this question that will benefit the forum is NOT ENOUGH SAMPLE SIZE! So I guess I just don't see how you expected to get any responses at all.

Regards
Brad S

[wiggs73]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Great post!

This is what I was looking for.

Thank you!

Anyone else?

[/ QUOTE ]


No all of this was ridiculous because your sample means nothing.

[/ QUOTE ]

How exactly was this ridiculous again?

The main points of my post were:
1. Try for first place.
2. You generally set yourself up for this by playing well 5 and 6 handed and playing an aggressive bubble.
3. Push or fold heads up.
4. The stats for his first 100 are good, but will probably change a lot over time, regardless of whether he makes any changes to his game.

This is good advice for any beginner, regardless of how many games they currently have under their belt. I'm sure it all seems intuitive to you because you have played 28723423 SNGs, but it sounded as if the OP didn't understand these basic and fundamental underlying concepts. I'm well aware of the fact that his sample size is small and meaningless. I tried to give a more thoughtful response than "your sample size is small and meaningless" though. Actually you're right... I guess that does make it ridiculous for these forums.

So to the OP: let me retract my original reply and reply with the following, in the interest of keeping form with the STT forum. Ahem... your sample size is too small. Come back when you have played 20,000 more SNGs. That is all.

[samr]

I'm in the same boat as you. 46.4% ITM over 267 $10+1s, 27.7% ROI but only 10.5% 1st places and 19.9% 3rd places. And yeah, I'm unlucky too with 60/40s, coinflips, etc.

I realized last week that 3rd places don't get you any money. The game's all about how many 1st places you can get, because that's where all the money is. Push more often on the bubble (5-6 handed), put yourself in a better situation to get 1st place. Don't try to keep yourself ahead of the other short stack or whatever. Don't be afraid of going broke. Just POOOOOOOOOOOSH!

[Moonsugar]

[ QUOTE ]
Posts like this are so silly

First you say

[ QUOTE ]
I DO REALIZE that this is a VERY SMALL SAMPLE SIZE.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I don't think you do realize, or once you got to that point you would have shaken your head, and not bothered submitting the post. Instead, you continued with

[ QUOTE ]
I believe that 100 games is enough of a sample to notice the following trend...



[/ QUOTE ]

Not true at all.

[ QUOTE ]
I DO realize this is a small sample size, but if you have experience with analyzing one's game then you should notice I am probably doing something wrong here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Again, no you clearly do not realize how meaningless this sample is. 28% ROI... something wrong.... Yes, I see something wrong all right.

but I don't normally get too bothered by what had been said so far. Lots of people do the same thing on here all the time. It is annoying, but really not worth commenting on most of the time. It's just another of the "I know my sample is meaningless, but tell me what it means" questions.

It was this that struck a chord with me

[ QUOTE ]
Please don't post "Not enough sample size", or posts that will not benefit me or the forum in any way. Thanks!

[/ QUOTE ]

Not benefit the forum?!

The only response to this question that will benefit the forum is NOT ENOUGH SAMPLE SIZE! So I guess I just don't see how you expected to get any responses at all.

Regards
Brad S

[/ QUOTE ]

What he said