QQ on the bubble - You make the call.

[astarck]

I am in the midst of a 27 buy-in downswing at the 55s and it has really shaken me up. I'm actually going to take some time off and come back to the nice warm 33s. Anyways, what do you do here:

Reads: WiggumVBH is fairly loose and thekid64 has been tight for a big stack.

***** Hand History for Game 2440590680 *****
200/400 Tourney Texas Hold'em Game Table (NL) (Tournament 14345503) - Thu Jul 28 22:21:31 EDT 2005
Table Table 22451 (Real Money) -- Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 2: thekid64 (3515)
Seat 4: DINOMYYYTE (2965)
Seat 7: coolbear (2680)
Seat 10: WiggumVBH (840)
coolbear posts small blind (100)
WiggumVBH posts big blind (200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to DINOMYYYTE [ Qh, Qs ]
thekid64 raises (1000) to 1000
DINOMYYYTE ??

EDIT - This is a 55.

[1C5]

ICM may say fold, but I play for 1st in this spot. Even if he has been tight, I still come over the top all in and if I finish 4th, I break another pen on my desk and load up another SnG.

you're gonna get called, but i think this is still worth a push.

[adanthar]

Folding sucks and ICM is probably wrong when it says to fold here. However, this is one of those times where it's at least feasible to just call if you think the BB will overcall.

With no read, just push it.

[1C5]

PS, maybe a fold if small stack has 100 or 200 chips but he has enough that you are not sure to finish ITM if you fold this. He doubles up once and he is still in the game.

[Ogre]

I dont see him 5x from utg with AA or KK, push

[mmbt0ne]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
However, this is one of those times where it's at least feasible to just call if you think the BB will overcall.

[/ QUOTE ]

More than that, there will be no A or K on the flop about 2/3 of the time, and there will be times when a Q flops with one of those two ranks. You have position for the rest of the hand, and your equity is likely to change dramatically given the flop. I don't know if it's the right play, but it's certainly a viable option I think.

[AliasMrJones]

I push QQ on the bubble without hesitation.

[octaveshift]

Shove 'em in. Another $55 is just one click away!

[The Don]

My normal read on this 5x raise is that he is very weak. I think there is actually a good chance he folds here. Move in definitely.

[astarck]

[ QUOTE ]
Folding sucks and ICM is probably wrong when it says to fold here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I guess I was the ICM poster-boy in this SNG and went deep into the time bank on this one. I ended up folding this hand. It folded around and the raiser collected the blinds without showing. The bubble went on to last quite a few more hands as the short stack doubled up and eventually went on to win the tournament. I took 3rd after losing 2-3 coinflips in a row.

[curtains]

I would definitely move allin and I don't think it's very close.

[maddog2030]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I guess I was the ICM poster-boy in this SNG and went deep into the time bank on this one. I ended up folding this hand. It folded around and the raiser collected the blinds without showing. The bubble went on to last quite a few more hands as the short stack doubled up and eventually went on to win the tournament. I took 3rd after losing 2-3 coinflips in a row.

[/ QUOTE ]

Assuming he only will call the reraise with AA,KK, or AK, giving you a 40% win rate if called, you need him to be folding 50% or better here according to ICM. So put him on a range of hands and if half of them or more do not include AA-KK,AK then you should push. Otherwise, it was a good fold under those assumptions according to ICM.

His calling range may or may not be that tight depending on how tight this guy is, how aware of the mechanics of the situation he is, and the level of aggression you've shown at this point (I presume a good deal). If you think he's going to almost surely call you, then view this as calling a push by him and it becomes a fold. Most of your equity here is when he's folding since the pot is already plenty big and you take it uncontested.

That being said, unless I have a read that this guy can't fold anything he would've raised there with, I push.