theroy

[conslice]

after yet another day of contiuous bad beats an idea sprang to my head that makes perfect sense to me. the idea is that if u are a winning player you will win in the long run but i think this idea is only partially true and can be compeltly false for some UNLUCKY players and i know alot of ppl will say luck dosent exist in poker but i think now that it does. ill use ollign a die as example. if a die is rolled hundreds of thousands of times enough for well over a propper sample pool the odds of rolling 6's 70-100% of the time is very very slim. however if millions of ppl arround the world started rolling dice just as millions are playing poker there WOULD be some ppl who would be rolling 6's (looosing to suck outs and bad beats) just as i believe there are ppl who are winning poker players who play properly with odds in there favour to be making money but despite that are loosing constantly to bad beats does this make any sense is there anything i am not clear about /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[poboy]

This is quite true, some people are just prone to bad beats. Luckily for me I am not one of those people, infact I'm on the opposite end of the spectrum. I have yet to have a bad beat as I'm sure is the case with most of the people who make money. Maybe you should try changing your account, it might be the lucky one!

[conslice]

YOUVE NEVER HAD ONE BAD BEAT NOT ONCE?!?!? are u fuckign kidding me ho wlong have u been playing

[fimbulwinter]

[ QUOTE ]
This is quite true, some people are just prone to bad beats. Luckily for me I am not one of those people, infact I'm on the opposite end of the spectrum. I have yet to have a bad beat as I'm sure is the case with most of the people who make money. Maybe you should try changing your account, it might be the lucky one!

[/ QUOTE ]

me too, moreover, on certain accounts i get a popup window that tells me i will have the best hand by the river. stupid fish keep wondering why i push all-in with 94o and i just keep stackin their chips.

fim

[poboy]

V2.1c now offers overlays, much nicer than the popups. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[poboy]

Not even one. Well there was that one time with AA... wait nope I sucked out one that one too. I only have around 50k hands in PT so this could just be because of my small sample size.

[ajmargarine]

I've noticed that since I started 19-tabling the 2/4's, I've been suffering many more bad beats. Suffered a horrible bad beat 15 days ago when a fool caught a straight on the river beating my TPTK for a $15 pot. And then just this morning, a fish caught trips for his pp on the river, stealing a $12 pot from my 2nd pair. When I was 12-tabling, my bad beat rate was one per 34 days. Has anyone else noticed this huge upsurge in bad beats once you started playing the recommended optimum number of tables?

Also, there's a bug in the pop-up windows on the party network. It pops up for up to 16 tables only. When I 19-table, it's like I'm totally playing blind on those last 3 tables. I may have to just stick to 16-tabling until that bug is fixed.

[Rockatansky]

[ QUOTE ]
I've noticed that since I started 19-tabling the 2/4's, I've been suffering many more bad beats. Suffered a horrible bad beat 15 days ago when a fool caught a straight on the river beating my TPTK for a $15 pot. And then just this morning, a fish caught trips for his pp on the river, stealing a $12 pot from my 2nd pair. When I was 12-tabling, my bad beat rate was one per 34 days. Has anyone else noticed this huge upsurge in bad beats once you started playing the recommended optimum number of tables?

Also, there's a bug in the pop-up windows on the party network. It pops up for up to 16 tables only. When I 19-table, it's like I'm totally playing blind on those last 3 tables. I may have to just stick to 16-tabling until that bug is fixed.

[/ QUOTE ]

OMG! You have 19 computers?

[ajmargarine]

No. One computer, 19 monitors.

[djoyce003]

yeah you are right, it's probably bad luck why you are losing. You are one of the ones destined to be unlucky forever.

[Rockatansky]

[ QUOTE ]
No. One computer, 19 monitors.

[/ QUOTE ]

nh

[conslice]

you guys are great. real cocky unwillign to ever give any real advice to any posters. sit around all day 400 table set mining thinkign your in the top 1- players on earth because those sets never become craked i guess this site is just mainly for cocky egomaniac players to joke around at other ppl and not for players helping players, my mistake

[djoyce003]

well if you were truly serious in your theory it is pretty ridiculous if you think about it. Think about it this way. 10 people all play 100,000 hands of poker. Over this number of hands, each player is going to get the same hand the same number of times within a pretty small standard deviation. The difference between the winning players, and the losing players, is how much the winning players win with the good hands, and how much they lose with the bad ones, or the "second best" good ones. You aren't especially prone to bad beats. You are probably overplaying hands, or playing bad hands to begin with that are easily passed up, etc. You should post some hands that you think you played the wrong way, and ask for some feedback on the boards. The people here would be happy to help you. If you post zany theories about why you are losing because you are just "unlucky" you are just going to be made fun of.

[ajmargarine]

Chill dude. My hand analysis posts/tongue in cheek post ratio is about 314:2. And now there's this post which is not easily classified. Post a hand and I will be glad to help analyze.

[DrPublo]

At first I thought this was going to be a serious post.

And then I noticed the OP spelled "theory" wrong.

The Doc

[Dommer]

I wouldn't worry about your bad beats, I've played with you at the pp 100$ tables and you make a lot of mistakes. Work on your game before you worry about your luck.

Addendum: to be more specific, I've seen you slow play overpairs pre-flop and on the flop on draw heavy boards, and pay off when the board is one to a straight. And you overplay them regularly, and pay off too easily with them. Start posting some of your overpair hands and people here will help.

[stu-unger]

my poker bot is yet to have a bad beat yet!!! I must of built a lucky one!! woooohhhhoooooo!!!

I had a similar thought during a spell of bad beats. I thought maybe evrybody in the world is assigned to a location on God's great bell curve of luck, and I had had the poor luck or karma required to wind up two or three standard deviations below the mean. Mind you, this was in a run of 6000 hands where I had not hit a flush for 2000, and then 5 of my next 6 were either king highs that lost to the ace or rivered for a fh, so I was desperate for an explanation.

Then I got Poker Tracker, and the mysteries of the universe were revealed. I had almost the precise number of wins/losses/hand distributions you are supposed to have--my mind had conveniently blocked out the 100 hand stretch in which I hit five flushes, for instance.

This too shall pass.

ourageously funny post. good one.

[baronzeus]

[ QUOTE ]
YOUVE NEVER HAD ONE BAD BEAT NOT ONCE?!?!? are u fuckign kidding me ho wlong have u been playing

[/ QUOTE ]


Nope. I had a good beat once. I had 23o, and there were 9 all ins in front of me in a 10000 NL game. I said ehhhhhh wtf who cares it's only 10K right? Flop came 332r and the rest is history. I bought a porsche.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
YOUVE NEVER HAD ONE BAD BEAT NOT ONCE?!?!? are u fuckign kidding me ho wlong have u been playing

[/ QUOTE ]


Nope. I had a good beat once. I had 23o, and there were 9 all ins in front of me in a 10000 NL game. I said ehhhhhh wtf who cares it's only 10K right? Flop came 332r and the rest is history. I bought a porsche.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sheer artistry here.

[conslice]

i play tight agressive and used to win till this month. i only see 10-15 VP the hands im loosign are all bad beat so when i post them ppl just make jokes and [censored] and its not worth my time such as today 109 in BB flop is 10105 guy bets double the pot and im thinkign 55 or im outkiked so i just call 9 on turn makes me 10s full of nines and he bets pot once again i just call because now i have the nuts and im not worried about beign drawn out on and althought a heart could kill my action so could raising so i call to let him lead on river river is jack of ahearts and a flush is completed he goes all in and im pretty sure he has 55 now but nope JJ yet another 2 outer river. the last 5 10 times ive htis sets into overpairs ive gotten them all in but they outset me on turn or river, i dont liek to complain because i know ppl will just make joke sand its a waste of everyones time but when i came up with this theroy it made perfect sense to me and would be a legitimate explenation to the fact that me a winning poker player who used to win has been playing the same solid poker but loosing countless buyins to the river. i have a freind in 2000nl who makes more money then i could ever dream of and i run all these hands by him he just says bad beats they happen, but for a month straight 1000-2000 hands a day. and aside from that i am not the only one in this spot i have another freind who is in same boat my freind in 2000nl says this guy adam is just as good a poker player as he is but looses because he cant manage his bankroll. well i happen to know that this guy adam lost a 60 buyin bankroll playing solid untilted poker and now has to play low low nl holdem. anyway this post is to long im done typing

[djoyce003]

you can't lose 60 buyins on bad beats. If you are playing solid untilted poker you will win way more than you lose on the bad beats. More than likely he's playing extremely tilted poker. I played tonight...I took 2 bad beats, and lost a little on them. On the other side, I still managed to win $100 just grinding away value betting my good hands against weak opponents. The point is bad beats happen, but it's the 1000's of other hands that don't include bad beats but just standard hands where you are winning and losing money. You should be posting those, not the example you posted above because yeah, that happens, it sucks but it happens. Post some real hands and listen to the advice.

[Dommer]

When you nut peddle and play more marginal hands improperly as soon as you get a couple bad beats it just kills all your profit, and it seems like you are really unlucky. In truth all the mistakes you are making with your other hands are killing your profit thus making your bad beats really hurt. How much is 500$ in bad beats if you should be making 6k a month at that limit?

[conslice]

i shouldnt say all bad beats, i also lost 3 buyins yesterday to AK i raise to 5 preflop flop comes AAJ or KKJ and twice i lost to AJ and KJ and once to JJ in pots that were heads up or 3 way no more then 1 or 2 players. i guess those dont really count as bad beats

[RedRum]

[ QUOTE ]
*** You are ignoring this user ***

[/ QUOTE ]

Another one bites the dust

Drink More,
RedRum

[wegs the wegs]

Well if your theory is correct, which it may or may not be, but if you are confident that you are just one of the many self-proclaimed unluckiest good player out there, maybe poker isn't for you. I mean if you know the universe is out to get you, there really is no use trying to beat the universe, cuz you won't win that fight.

However my guess is that you won't stop playing poker. You're convinced that your play is right and that over time you'll get the best of it. You'll keep playing and keep taking the bad beats and keep thinking that you're just cursed. It's alright, most players are like that. Just keep this in mind, only the one who lost the pot is convinced luck exists.

[Marlow]

Back in the dark ages of 2+2 (like 4 years ago), Jim Bryer had a post on this very thing. Jim, of course, is an excellent player and thinker. In his post he maintained that the “long run” is in fact much longer than my life or yours. He said that some people, though very very few people, who have a long “long run” of even poker can have either exceptional luck or terrible luck. I’m certainly not a math person, but I’m sure that there are incredible flukes like this. I imagine that probability dictates that there HAVE to be.

But look, you aren’t one of those people. The chances of you being that guy are astronomical – 1 against. You are going through an extended bad patch, or you have some serious leaks, or both.

[TreyOfLight]

[ QUOTE ]
Back in the dark ages of 2+2 (like 4 years ago), Jim Bryer had a post on this very thing. Jim, of course, is an excellent player and thinker. In his post he maintained that the “long run” is in fact much longer than my life or yours.

[/ QUOTE ]

I always thought that this problem was unique to limit poker. Bad runs are possible anywhere, of course, but if you can put all the money in as a favorite, you should see that in the results in a short time.

Suppose you're getting money in the pot, on average, as a 55-45 favorite. I played around with this binomial distribution applet (http://www.ruf.rice.edu/~lane/stat_sim/normal_approx/index.html) and the odds of losing drop off precipitously as sample size increases:

n..... chance of losing money overall after n equal 1:1 wagers as a .55 favorite
100 18.3%
200 8.9%
400 2.5%
800 0.25%
1000 0.08%

That's not even a large sample size. As n grows beyond 1000, the chance becomes small enough that no online calculator I found could express it.

Now, I'm not a statistics person or all-round supergenius like many of this forum's posters, so maybe this is total crap, but the result matches up with my intuition and with anecdotal evidence from this forum which suggests that, overwhelmingly, winning players win.

Does this make sense?

[vulturesrow]

Thanks for that post Trey, very interesting. I think that theoretically, and someone can correct me if Im wrong, the 'long run' occurs over an infinite or near infinite number of trials. That said, as your experiment shows, it is very unlikely if you are playing theoretically correct poker that you will be a consistent loser.

[elus2]

if you make one buyin worth of wagers with an average of 55% equity every 50 hands then that 1000 hand sample is really over the course of 50k hands isn't it?

[TreyOfLight]

[ QUOTE ]
that 1000 hand sample is really over the course of 50k hands isn't it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, though I was thinking more like 100k hands. Either way, it's much less than a human lifetime.

[Wayfare]

[ QUOTE ]
after yet another day of contiuous bad beats an idea sprang to my head that makes perfect sense to me. the idea is that if u are a winning player you will win in the long run but i think this idea is only partially true and can be compeltly false for some UNLUCKY players and i know alot of ppl will say luck dosent exist in poker but i think now that it does. ill use ollign a die as example. if a die is rolled hundreds of thousands of times enough for well over a propper sample pool the odds of rolling 6's 70-100% of the time is very very slim. however if millions of ppl arround the world started rolling dice just as millions are playing poker there WOULD be some ppl who would be rolling 6's (looosing to suck outs and bad beats) just as i believe there are ppl who are winning poker players who play properly with odds in there favour to be making money but despite that are loosing constantly to bad beats does this make any sense is there anything i am not clear about /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the greatest post I have ever read.

[WildDan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
after yet another day of contiuous bad beats an idea sprang to my head that makes perfect sense to me. the idea is that if u are a winning player you will win in the long run but i think this idea is only partially true and can be compeltly false for some UNLUCKY players and i know alot of ppl will say luck dosent exist in poker but i think now that it does. ill use ollign a die as example. if a die is rolled hundreds of thousands of times enough for well over a propper sample pool the odds of rolling 6's 70-100% of the time is very very slim. however if millions of ppl arround the world started rolling dice just as millions are playing poker there WOULD be some ppl who would be rolling 6's (looosing to suck outs and bad beats) just as i believe there are ppl who are winning poker players who play properly with odds in there favour to be making money but despite that are loosing constantly to bad beats does this make any sense is there anything i am not clear about /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the greatest post I have ever read.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. I'm going to begin ollign a die whenever I loooose to bad beats.